印度石化工业简介.pptx

Indian Country Report-Review&Future Prospects May 2013Chemicals&Petrochemicals Manufacturers AssociationFlatNo708,7thFloor,KailashBuilding,26,KasturbaGandhiMarg,NewDelhi110001,INDIAPhone:91-11-43612198,Fax:[phone],Website:cpmaiairtelmail.in2Review&Outlook of Indian EconomyIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India SnapshotofIndianEconomy3Indian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 4GDP recorded slowest growth in last 6 years 5%(E)-2012-13Unit:%2007-20082008-20092009-20102010-20112011-20122012-2013Y-O-Y Growth Rates2R1RAEAgriculture&AlliedActivities5.80.10.87.93.61.8Mining&Quarrying3.72.15.94.9-0.60.4Manufacturing10.34.311.39.72.71.9Electricity,gas&watersupply8.34.66.25.26.54.9Construction10.85.36.710.25.65.9Trade,Hotels,Transport&Communication10.97.510.412.37.05.2Finance,Insurance,RealEstate&BusinessServices12.012.09.710.111.78.6Community,Social&PersonalServices6.912.511.74.36.06.8GDP at factor Cost(%)9.36.78.69.36.25.0IIP38.134.336.536.835.0naInflationCPI15.52.55.38.22.90.7ForeignExchangeReserves(US$)6.29.112.410.48.410.0ExchangeRateRs/US$309.7252.0279.1304.8294.4295.5Note:QEreferstotheQuickEstimates,AEreferstotheAdvanceEstimatesSource:EconomicSurvey2012-13IndianEconomy:2012-13Indian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India GrowthinGDPatFactorCostat2004-5prices(%)5Moderation in growth due to weakness in industry(mining&quarrying,manufacturing,electricity,gas&watersupply&constructionsectors)Indian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 6Unit:US$billion2007-08 2008-09 2009-102010-11PR2011-12P2011-12(H1-A-S)PR2012-13(H1-A-S)PExports166.2189.0182.4256.2309.8158.2146.6Imports257.6308.5300.6383.5499.5247.7237.2Trade Balance-91.5-119.5-118.2-127.3-189.8-89.5-90.7NetInvisibles75.791.680.079.3111.653.151.7Current Account Balance-15.7-27.9-38.2-48.1-78.2-36.4-39.0ForeignInvestment43.38.350.442.139.217.118.6O/WFDI(net)15.922.418.011.822.115.712.8Portfolio(net)27.4-14.032.430.317.21.35.8Capital Account Balance106.67.451.663.767.843.540.0Overall Balance92.2-20.113.413.1-12.8-5.8.36Source:EconomicSurvey2012-13BalanceofPaymentSummaryIndias current account deficit plumbed as gold and oil imports soaredIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 7India:TrendsinIndustrialOutputImprovement in Manufacturing&Consumer GoodsGrowthRateIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 8India expected growth rate in 2013-14 6-7%IndiasGDPgrowthprojection:2013-14Agencies2013-14Economic Survey 2012-136.1%-6.7%IMF-WEO-Jan 20135.9%World Bank6.0%United Nations6.1%Moodys Mar 20136.2%CRISIL Jan 20136.7%Credit Suisse Feb 20136.7%Indian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India Indianagriculturehasperformedremarkablywellintermsofoutputgrowth,despiteweatherandpriceshocksinthepastfewyears.Theproduction of key capitalgoods suchas machineryandequipment,electricalmachinery,andtransportsegmentscontractedowingtodecelerationininvestment,declineinnewprojects,andimportcompetition.Highinterestratesandslowergrowthinhouseholdorretailcreditresultedinslowergrowthinconsumerdurables.Servicesectorhasclearlyoutgrownboththeindustryandagriculturesectors.India now has a vibrant and transparent financial market in terms of marketefficiency,transparency,andpricediscoveryprocess.Expenditure on social services by the government has increased in recent yearsreflectingthehigherprioritygiventothissector.Multilateral efforts on sustainable development and climate change have led toseveralpositiveoutcomes.9ReviewoftheEconomy10Review&Outlook of Petrochemical IndustryIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 11Capacityadditionof440KtbyMRPLin20132010A2011A2012A2013E2014E0246810122.63.03.03.03.33.63.84.24.64.61.31.31.31.41.50.50.50.50.50.5PSPVCPPAll PEsCapacityforpolymersgrewat5%in2012MMTIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 12DemandforPE&PPisexpectedtoregisterastronggrowthof12%&15%respectivelyin20132010A2011A2012A2013E2014E0246810123.03.13.53.94.42.62.73.13.33.71.92.12.12.42.60.20.30.30.30.3PSPVCPPAll PEsPolymerdemandgrewat10.4%in2012MMTIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 13PVCImportdependencyexpectedtobearound45%in2013&2014,nocapacityaddition2010A2011A2012A2013E2014E-0.99-0.71-1.15-1.33-1.620.310.480.620.660.68-0.7-0.8-1.0-1.1-1.20.020.00-0.01-0.02-0.04AllPEPPPVCPSTrend in Polymers net trade(mmt)NetexportablesurplusincaseofPPIndian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 14.andisexpectedtotouch42mmtby2014Aggregate petrochemicals demand combining all the key sector(KT)2010201120122013 E2014 E05101520253035404529.932.434.637.342.1Petrochemicaldemandwasat34.5mmtin2012Indian Petrochemical Industry-Review&Future Prospects -APIC 2013,CPMAI,India 15.andisexpectedtogrowat8%-13%in2013&2014SegmentProductsActualProjectedGrowth over previous year2011201220132014201220132014PolymersLDPE+EVA,LLDPE,HDPE,PP,PVC,PS8113895999131103710%11%11%OlefinsEthylene,Propylene,Butadiene,Styrene,EDC&VCM807086339362108107.0%8.5%15%Fibre IntermediatesACN,Caprolactum,PTA&MEG59576360669971386.8%5.3%6.6%Synthetic FibresPSF,ASF,PPSF,PFY,PPFY,VSF,VFY&NFY33883473366339652.5%5.5%8.2%Para-XylenePX2424230524103478-4.9%4.5%44%SurfactantsLAB,EO6666977317644.7%4.9%4.5%ElastomersSBR,PBR,NBR&EPDM40645548151312%5.7%6.7%Carbon Black&CBFSCB&CBFS20902283248527109.2%8.8%9.1%Other Key PetrochemicalsBenzene,Toluene,MX,OX13051417153716678.6%8.4%8.5%Total Demand324183458237280420816.7%7.8%13%Petrochemicalsdemandincreasedat6.7%in201216Thank You!