2024-2043年世界航空货运预测报告.pdf

WORLD AIR CARGO FORECAST2024-2043 City nameFORECASTWorld Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043ContentsForeword.1Executive summary.2 Air cargo industry overview.3Inter-regionalEast Asia-North America.7East Asia-Europe.8Europe-North America.9Latin America-North America.10Latin America-Europe.11Africa-East Asia.12Africa-Europe.13South Asia-East Asia.14South Asia-Europe.15RegionalNorth America.16Intra-East Asia and Oceania.17Domestic China.18Intra-Europe.19Domestic India .20Freighter fleet forecast.21 Methodology and sourcing.23Glossary.24Appendix.25City name1World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043The World Air Cargo Forecast(WACF)is the Boeing Companys biennial overview and long-term outlook for the air cargo industry.It summarizes the worlds major air trade markets,identifies industry trends,and presents forecasts for future development of markets and the global freighter fleet.This document provides our customers,stakeholders and industry with valuable information that informs decision-making for the future of air cargo and global trade.A special thank you to contributors:Sharon FelixGregg GildemannTom HoangCalvin JinDiego RodriguezWendy SowersAaron TaylerDiane TchakiridesThe next WACF will be published in the fourth quarter of 2026.Feedback welcome:Boeing Air Cargo Market AnalysisBoeing Commercial AirplanesP.O.Box 3703,MC 9U7-12Seattle,WA 98124 USAWACF Focal:Calvin JinFreighter Fleet Forecast Focal:Aaron TaylerForeword1City name2World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043Air Cargo Traffic Forecast by FlowExecutive Summary*Note:Long-term Compound Annual Growth Rates(CAGRs)may change across WACF editions due to base year volatility Quick Stats7.0%2.3%3.9%7.0%3.5%5.7%2.9%2.7%5.5%5.3%2.8%2.6%4.0%4.2%050100150Domestic IndiaIntra-EuropeS Asia&EuropeS Asia&E AsiaAfrica&EuropeAfrica&E AsiaL America&EuropeL America&N AmericaDomestic ChinaIntra-E Asia&OceaniaN AmericaEurope&N AmericaE Asia&EuropeE Asia&N AmericaTraffic(billion CTKs)2023 trafficAdded traffic thru 2043CAGR 2024-20434.0%50%25%Traffic(billion Cargo Tonne-Kilometers)City name3World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043Express carriersAir Cargo Industry Overview18%Express carrier share of traffic,2023 2.6%Historical air trade growth,2003-232.1x Volumes in 2043 vs.2023Air cargo plays a unique role in global trade due to its unparalleled reliability,speed,and security.Nearly 99%of world trade consists of low-value bulk commodities transported via ocean freight such as oil,metal ores,and grains.Though less than 1%of trade volumes are transported via air,air freight commodities tend to be perishable,high-value,or time-sensitive goods which collectively generate around 35%of world trade value.The two main types of air cargo have been express and general.In recent years,e-commerce has emerged as a significant third,often overlapping the other two.There are several distinct airline business models for air cargo:Belly-only operators provide air cargo capability using existing passenger networks and fleets All-cargo operators offer dedicated main-deck freighter capability for general freight,charter operations,and special or outsize cargo needs Combination carriers use both dedicated main-deck freighters as well as the belly capacity of passenger aircraft to serve a broad network and diverse markets Express carriers operate main-deck freighter fleets of all sizes to provide time-definite services from first-mile pickup to last-mile delivery,as well as general air cargo capability 18%of global air cargo traffic Includes first-mile pick up and last-mile delivery Total control of logistics flow from shipper to consignee Optimized air network around main and regional hubs Extensive ground network Usually move documents and small packages 82%of global air cargo traffic Capacity is sold to freight forwarders Responsible for moving freight from airport to airport Usually move larger,bulky shipments(more than 70kg)Air Cargo Industry OverviewGeneral cargo carriersCity name4World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043Freighters are essential to the global air cargo market.Though widebody passenger airplanes offer ample lower hold cargo capacity on the worlds major cargo flows,approximately 54%of global air cargo traffic measured in Cargo Tonne-Kilometers(CTKs)has historically been transported by main-deck freighters.Consequently,airlines operating freighters generated 90%of total air cargo industry revenues in 2023.Key reasons why freighters are preferred in air cargo markets include:Most passenger networks do not serve key air cargo hubs Widebody passenger schedules often do not meet shipper timing needs Hazardous and outsize cargo cannot be transported in the lower holds of passenger aircraft Payload-range considerations on passenger airplanes may limit cargo carriage The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the critical role of freighter aircraft in global trade.Approximately 60-70%of air cargo traffic between 2020 and 2023 was carried by freighters due to the significant reduction in passenger flights.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05010015020025030020002005201020152020Traffic(billion CTKs)Freighter CTKLower Hold CTKFreighter shareFreighter/Lower Hold Share of Air Cargo Traffic Freighter/Lower Hold Share of Air Cargo TrafficAir Cargo Industry Revenues by Airline Business ModelAirlines with freighters generate 90%of industry revenues Air Cargo Industry OverviewExpress 48%Combination Carrier32%All-Cargo Carrier10%Passenger Belly Only10%2023$144 Billion90%City name5World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043The air cargo market faced significant challenges in early 2023 due to global economic uncertaintybut experienced a strong recovery in the latter half of the year,driven by a surge in demand for Chinese e-commerce goods,which continues in 2024.While the past year highlights short-term volatility,the industry has demonstrated long-term resilience.Despite multiple downturns,the industry has grown at an average of 2.6%per year over the last 20 years.9/11Global financialcrisisEurozone crisisChinese stock crashU.S.-China trade relations;COVID Wars;high inflation050100150200250300Global CTKs,Indexed 2000=100Our forecast for the global air cargo industry is primarily driven by the projected growth of global real GDP,which is expected to increase 2.6%annually over the next 20 years.South Asia,China,Southeast Asia,and Africa will lead this growth as their economies continue to develop and mature.Global trade and industrial production,also drivers of air cargo,are projected to grow 2.9%and 2.2%annually over the same period.Another significant factor contributing to future air cargo growth is supply chain diversification.The rise of geopolitical risk and the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of single-source supply chains,including labor,shipping,and manufacturing constraints.In response,manufacturers have begun diversifying their operations and supply chains to other parts of Asia.Southeast Asian countries,for example,have significantly increased their industrial capabilities and global air exports since 2017 as a result of these shifts.Increasingly,multi-node supply chains will depend on air cargo for reliable and timely connectivity across different stages of the manufacturing process.Growth of e-commerce and express networks will provide a further boost to air cargo demand.The entry of new e-commerce market players significantly accelerated air cargo growth in the latter half of 2023 and into 2024,underscoring the importance of air cargos unmatched speed to serve the digital economy.Global e-commerce revenues are forecast to rise around 9%per year through 2029,with the fastest growth in the emerging markets of South Asia and Southeast Asia.Air cargo networks will play an essential role in this expansion.World Air Cargo Market ResilienceAir Cargo Industry OverviewCity name6World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-20434.0%CAGR020040060080020232043WorldTraffic(billion CTKs)baselowhigh3.6%CAGR5.8%CAGR020040060080020232043WorldTraffic(billion CTKs)GeneralExpressIndustry totalIndustry by carrier segment18%82%25%75%Based on these factors,we forecast that global air cargo traffic,measured in CTKs,will average 4.0%annual growth from 2024 to 2043.With a 2019 base year,this Compound Annual Growth Rate(CAGR)is 3.4%.Express carriers,which accounted for 18%of total industry traffic in 2023,are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8%.Due to their greater flexibility in handling express cargo,general cargo as well as e-commerce,these carriers are anticipated to outpace overall industry growth and increase their market share to 25%by 2043.However,other types of carriers will remain essential to e-commerce transport,particularly as e-commerce shipments become denser over time.Global ForecastAir Cargo Industry OverviewCAGR:Compound Annual Growth RateCity nameHISTORICALCOMMODITIES,2023FORECAST7World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043East Asia-North America21%Share of global traffic,2023 1.1%Historical air trade growth,2013-232.3x Volumes in 2043 vs.2023East Asia-North America is the largest air cargo market in the world,as measured by CTKs.Because of the high industrial output of East Asiaespecially in advanced technologyand the large consumer market of North America,air trade tends to be imbalanced with nearly twice as much cargo flying eastbound to North America compared to westbound.Air trade on this flow is heavily concentrated.The United States accounts for nearly 90%of North American trade with East Asia,while China is the largest East Asian air trade partner of North America with a 55%share of North American air imports and 37%share of exports.As a result,the overall transpacific market tends to be highly dependent on relations between the two large economies.Risks posed by geopolitical tensions and pandemic-era disruptions have prompted companies to diversify their supply chains beyond China to Vietnam,Thailand,and Malaysia,raising those countries collective share of North American imports from 10%in 2017 to 17%in 2023.Supply chain diversification,rising economies in Southeast Asia,and growth of e-commerce on both sides of the Pacific are expected to drive air trade growth.Though the challenge of directionality is expected to remain in the future,volumes in the total market are projected to more than double by 2043.DRIVERS Growing economies and consumer demand Supply chain diversification bolstering industrial capabilities of Southeast Asia Increasing trade cooperation across the Pacific Developing e-commerce marketsRISKS Geopolitical tensions Supply chain disruptions and near-shoring to North America Demographic transitions in Northeast Asian countries Weather events and climate threatsSeoul4.5%CAGR3.5%CAGR024682023204320232043E Asia to N AmericaN America to E AsiaVolumes(million tonnes)baselowhigh26%26%16%8%7%16%23%19%13%12%11%22%Technology&Professional EquipmentMachinery&Electrical EquipmentDocuments&Small PackagesTextiles,Leather&ApparelChemical ProductsOtherMachinery&Electrical EquipmentChemical ProductsPerishablesDocuments&Small PackagesTechnology&Professional EquipmentOtherE Asia to N AmericaN America to E Asia0246201320152017201920212023Volumes(million tonnes)E Asia to N America TotalN America to E AsiaCAGR:Compound Annual Growth RateBar length:volumes in tonnes,2023;Percentages:commodity share of directional flowCity nameHISTORICALCOMMODITIES,2023FORECAST8World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-20430246201320152017201920212023Volumes(million tonnes)E Asia to EuropeEurope to E Asia TotalEast Asia-Europe18%Share of global traffic,2023 1.9%Historical air trade growth,2013-232.2x Volumes in 2043 vs.2023East Asia-Europe is the worlds second-largest air cargo market,as measured by CTKs.Freighter capacity between the two regions nearly doubled over the past two years due to passenger belly capacity reductions following escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022.Capacity remains elevated because of supply chain disruptions related to the Red Sea crisis and high demand for Chinese e-commerce.Unlike the directionality on transpacific flows,volumes on this trade lane are fairly balanced.The East Asia-to-Europe direction is dominated by consumer goods,whereas Europe-to-East Asia is driven by manufacturing and industrial goods.However,European exports of consumer goods,luxury items,and perishables have increased in recent years as East Asias middle class and consumer base continue to grow.Sixth-Freedom carriers centrally located on this trade lane have risen to prominence in recent years.Their ability to link the two regions and beyond by efficiently connecting cargo through their hubs has allowed them to capture market share and lead industry growth,particularly given the Russia overflight restrictions faced by many other carriers.Strong economic fundamentals and expanding e-commerce markets on both sides of this trade lane will drive air cargo growth at around 4.0%per year over the next 20 years.DRIVERS Rising middle class in East Asia Expanding economies in Europe and East Asia Strong cross-border e-commerce growth Free trade agreements and inter-regional partnershipsRISKS Regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions Weak economic growth in major European economies Rising nationalism Increased trade tariffsHong Kong3.8%CAGR4.2%CAGR024682023204320232043E Asia to EuropeEurope to E AsiaVolumes(million tonnes)baselowhigh43%20%10%8%4%14%34%17%16%9%7%17%Machinery&Electrical EquipmentTechnology&Professional EquipmentTextiles,Leather&ApparelChemical ProductsPerishablesOtherMachinery&Electrical EquipmentPerishablesChemical ProductsTechnology&Professional EquipmentTextiles,Leather&ApparelOtherE Asia to EuropeEurope to E AsiaCAGR:Compound Annual Growth RateBar length:volumes in tonnes,2023;Percentages:commodity share of directional flowCity nameHISTORICALCOMMODITIES,2023FORECAST9World Air Cargo Forecast 2024-2043Frankfurt11%Share of global traffic,2023 2.5%Historical air trade growth,2013-231.7x Volumes in 2043 vs.2023Europe-North AmericaAir trade between Europe and North America has been volatile in recent years due to the effects of COVID-19,high inflation,and slowing of the global economy.However,long-term growth has remained positive.Although the 300 to 600 daily widebody passenger flights each way across the North Atlantic(depending on season)provide more than enough lower hold capacity to fulfill all air cargo demand,regulations,special cargo requirements,and logistics infrastructure often limit the use of this capacity.As a result,dedicated freighters continue to transport over 40%of cargo traffic between the two regions.Germany,the UK,Italy,France,and the Netherlands were the top five European air trade partners of North America in 2023,together accounting for over 60%of the market.At the same time,the United States contributed over 90%of North American air cargo volumes traded with Europe.Countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans have steadily been increasing their share over the last decades as their economies and industrial capabilities have grown.Our for