2024年负担得起和公平过渡的关键政策设计考虑因素（英）.pdf

Key Policy Design Considerations forAffordable and FairTransitionsGlobal Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy TransitionsOctober 2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgLuxembourg Mexico NetherlandsNew Zealand NorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic SpainSweden Switzerland Republic of Trkiye United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYThe Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions:Designing for Fairness,convened by IEA Executive Director Dr.Fatih Birol,is co-chaired by Alexandre Silveira de Oliveira,Brazils Minister of Mines and Energy and Teresa Ribera,Spains Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge.It comprises energy,climate and labour leaders from governments around the world,along with high-level representatives from international organisations and labour,Indigenous,youth and civil society groups.2024,G20 Ministerial meeting,Foz do Iguau,Brazil.IEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech Republic DenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LKey policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions Introduction On April 26,2024,the IEA hosted its inaugural Global Summit on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions.Leaders from around the world gathered at the IEA headquarters in Paris to discuss key issues at the heart of clean energy transitions.Recognising the critical role that policy design plays in achieving people-centred and fair outcomes,the IEA Executive Director announced the creation of the new Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions:Designing for Fairness.The Commission is co-chaired by Teresa Ribera,Spains Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge,and Alexandre Silveira de Oliveira,Brazils Minister of Mines and Energy,and comprises energy,climate and labour leaders from governments around the world,along with high-level representatives from international organisations and labour,Indigenous Nations and Peoples,youth and civil society groups.The new Global Commission builds on the work of the 2021 Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions that brought together,key voices,to examine the social dimensions of clean energy transitions and to identify the key elements of what will make transitions truly people-centred,fair,and inclusive(IEA,2021).The 30 members developed a series of recommendations(see Annex)that are set out in four categories:Decent Jobs and Worker Protection Social and Economic Development Equity,Social Inclusion,and Fairness People as Active Participants The IEA also published a Global Observatory,a set of over 100 case studies that were identified as best practices and illustrative measures and considerations necessary to deliver the recommendations effectively(IEA,2024a).The new Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions:Designing for Fairness will take forward this work to examine in more detail how to enact these principles through policy design and implementation.The work will draw on Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.cases and experiences of the Commission members and will aid other decision makers as they seek to prioritise affordability and fairness in their clean energy policies.The recently-released IEA report Strategies for Affordable and Fair Clean Energy Transitions examines for the first time the affordability aspects of clean energy transitions,with a particular focus on the inequities in energy consumption and expenditures across households and regions(IEA,2024b).The analysis shows that the Net Zero Emissions by 2050(NZE)Scenarios 1.5 C pathway is less costly on a global basis than a pathway based on todays policy settings,as a result of lower running costs of a rapidly decarbonising energy system.This analysis takes into consideration all costs of delivering energy,including capital expenditures,operating expenses,the need to pay back previous investments and financing costs.However,making this shift to a clean energy system requires major investment by governments,businesses,and households.One chief concern for policy makers is ensuring such investments increase affordability,and access,of energy services and technology for all,not just for select parts of the population or the world.Designing for fairness focuses on the question of how the design of policies to drive clean energy transitions can deliver greater affordability,optimal distribution of benefits and costs,and more equity in energy systems.While energy systems are undergoing structural transformations,there is an opportunity to bring people in from the margins of the energy economy and improve lives and well-being,including by expanding energy access,creating jobs,reducing energy bills,providing better air quality and healthier homes,and empowering communities to own and manage power systems locally.At the same time,the scale and scope of these transitions requires broad support from societies.If policies are perceived to only benefit those who can afford new technologies or to harm workers and communities,the public will not support these transitions,and they will not be successful.The potential for energy transitions to enhance peoples quality of life and livelihoods is increasingly recognised at the global level.At COP28,nearly 200 governments reached a historic agreement to triple renewable energy capacity,double the rate of energy efficiency improvement and substantially reduce methane emissions by 2030 in order to keep within reach of the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5C.Doubling energy efficiency improvements alone has the potential to cut energy bills by a third in advanced economies and create 4.5 million jobs by 2030(IEA,2023i).As international momentum towards cleaner and more efficient energy systems builds,and in the wake of the ambition agreed at COP28,the focus is increasingly turning to implementation.Implementing clean energy transitions in Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.practice requires adequate financing,especially to reduce the cost of capital and support clean energy deployment and capacity building in emerging and developing economies.Clean energy transitions will also look different in every country and the impact they will have on different population segments will vary based on how policies are designed and targeted.In this time of transformation,countries require a context-specific understanding of what challenges exist and how to address them,but they can also learn from each other through the exchange of best practices and dialogue.In this paper,members set out seven key questions on affordability and fairness in clean energy transitions,laying out some of the crucial issues that policy makers are trying to address.They are:1.How to realise decent jobs for workers in clean energy transitions?2.How can social inclusion be integrated into workforce development policies?3.How to deliver universal access to affordable energy as part of clean energy transitions?4.How can policies ensure low-income and marginalised communities are able to afford clean energy technologies?5.How to ensure clean energy policies maximise socio-economic benefits?6.How can policy design determine the fair distribution of benefits and costs?7.How to put meaningful participation of all stakeholders at the heart of clean energy transitions?Focusing on these questions,the paper presents selected best practices from various countries to demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome.This paper is the first output of the Global Commission,and it is being released at the invitation of Minister Silveira to provide input into G20 energy deliberations.The Commission will begin a second phase of work in October 2024,to align with COP30,hosted by Brazil,which is planned to have a strong focus on social and just transition issues.During the second phase,members will collaborate to develop an implementation roadmap,outlining available policy tools and options for policy makers and international stakeholders to address the seven key questions.This second phase of the Commission will also provide an opportunity for members to explore metrics to assess the effectiveness of implemented strategies and policies.Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key points 1.How to realise decent jobs for workers in clean energy transitions?Strengthening processes to ensure that workers and employers fully participate in planning of clean energy transitions is a key component in supporting workers and communities in transitions and ensuring that the workforce is adequately trained to respond to future skills demand.National-level just transition frameworks as well as local context-specific initiatives and wider labour market policies are all important.2.How can social inclusion be integrated into workforce development policies?Clean energy transitions can benefit diverse populations by creating economic opportunities,leading to enhanced equality and improved quality of life.The benefits are maximised when social inclusion considerations,including increasing labour market access for traditionally under-represented and marginalised groups,are a central part of policy design and implementation.3.How to deliver universal access to affordable energy as part of clean energy transitions?Many people still lack access to energy and the benefits that come with it.An even greater number do not have access to clean cooking technologies,disproportionately affecting women and childrens health.Improving affordable energy access should be a core imperative in all clean energy transitions.4.How can policies ensure low-income and marginalised communities are able to afford clean energy technologies?Policies that are specifically designed to increase broader participation in the clean energy economy,whether through targeting low-income households or focusing on technologies that are more widely used and accessible,will lead to more acceptance and uptake from all parts of society.5.How to ensure clean energy policies maximise socio-economic benefits?Clean energy policies can create broader socio-economic benefits beyond the energy sector,including better health or new sources of income for households.When policies are designed with this in mind,they can also contribute to addressing existing inequalities.Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.6.How can policy design determine the fair distribution of benefits and costs?Identifying and monitoring the impact of policies on different groups is essential to adjusting policy design and creating complementary policies that ensure benefits are fairly distributed.7.How to put meaningful participation of all stakeholders at the heart of clean energy transitions?The active participation of all stakeholders in clean energy policy planning is key to the design of transitions,to their acceptability,and to their effective implementation.Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.How to realise decent jobs for workers in clean energy transitions?Key message:Strengthening processes to ensure that workers and employers fully participate in planning of clean energy transitions is a key component in supporting workers and communities in transitions and ensuring that the workforce is adequately trained to respond to future skills demand.National-level just transition frameworks as well as context-specific initiatives and wider labour market policies are important to provide policy guidance and coherence.The energy sector employs over 66 million people worldwide,and changes to this sector are already having a significant impact on workers and communities(IEA,2024c).There are now more clean energy jobs than fossil fuel jobs.According to IEA projections,up to 30 million(gross)new clean energy jobs will be created by 2030.This expected growth will be in sectors including solar PV,wind,electric vehicles(EVs)and battery manufacturing,heat pumps,and critical mineral mining.In both advanced and emerging market and developing economies,workers in the energy sector tend to earn more compared to the broader economy(IEA,2023a).Although clean energy transitions are expected to result in substantial net job creation(up to 17 million),13 million jobs are expected to be phased-out in the fossil fuel sector over the next decade.Some communities may be severely affected by the local phase-out of their industry,especially in the case of coal regions and communities where coal is the main source of income(IEA,2024d).Key policy design considerations for affordable and fair transitions PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Changes in global energy employment by sector and scenario,2022-2030 IEA CC BY 4.0.Notes:Critical minerals include only extractive activities.EVs=electric vehicles,ICE=internal combustion engine vehicles.STEPS=Stated Policies Scenario.NZE=Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.Source:IEA(2023a),World Employment Report.Place-based analysis and long-term planning are essential to delivering better outcomes for workers.Understanding the landscape for these workers allows governments to put in place policy tools to help support them and their communities as they transition to new employment.For example,new analysis by the OECD tracks outcomes for displaced workers in high and low-emission sectors1,in terms of their success in finding new employment and the comparative remuneration of that new employment(Barreto et al.,2024).Workers in high-emission industries,who tend to be older,with jobs that are relatively well-paid,can experience a loss of earnings(a combination of employment,days worked and wages)around seven percentage points greater than those from low emission industries.1 For a complete definition please r