2024年东盟能源投资（英）.pdf

Copyrights ASEAN Centre for Energy,2024Unless otherwise stated,all content and materials in this publication are the exclusive property of the ASEAN Centre for Energy(ACE)and are protected by copyright.Permission to use,share,copy,print,and/or store these materials is granted,provided that proper attribution to ACE is clearly indicated.Materials in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and are governed by separate terms of use and restrictions,including limitations on commercial use.Published by:ASEAN Centre for EnergySoemantri Brodjonegoro II Building,6th fl.Directorate General of ElectricityJl.HR.Rasuna Said Block X-2,Kav.07-08 Jakarta 12950,IndonesiaTel:(62-21)527 9332|Fax:[phone]E-Mail:communicationaseanenergy.org www.aseanenergy.org September 20242024One Communityfor SustainableEnergyASEAN CENTRE FOR ENERGYACE3AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementThe ASEAN Energy Investment 2024(AEI 2024)Report was developed by the ASEAN Centre for Energy(ACE),with the support of the Energy Foundation China.Authors:This report was prepared by experts from ACE,and independent consultants.From ACE,the authors of the report are Rika Safrina,Ambiyah Abdullah,Zahra Aninda Pradiva,Afham Kilmi,Auliya Febriyanti,Afifa Sohirin,and Rhea Oktaqiara.The independent consultants are Dallih Warviyan,Imaduddin Abdullah,and Mutia Prabawati.Guidance:Special recognition is extended to Nuki Agya Utama,Zulfikar Yurnaidi,Andy Tirta,Han Wei,Xing Yunfei,and Peng Linan,for their instrumental role in providing direction,ensuring the success of this publication.Reviewers:Appreciation is expressed to Silvira Ayu Rosalia,Marc Benjamin Kusno,Amira Bilqis,Michael Petalio,and Indira Pradnyaswari,for the time and effort dedicated to providing constructive feedback,ensuring the quality of this publication.Language Editing:Acknowledgment is given to Bernard Grover for their contributions to ensuring the manuscript meets language and terminology standards in the publishing process.Design and Layout:Acknowledgment is given to Sonny S.Wicaksono for their creative contributions to the design and layout of this publication.Communications Team:Special recognition goes to Aurelia Syafina Luthfi for their efforts in preparing the communications strategy,and overseeing the final stages of preparing this publication for distribution.Funding Support:Gratitude is expressed for the financial support provided by the Energy Foundation China that made this publication possible.This collaborative effort reflects the dedication of this diverse group of contributors,and their valuable contributions are truly appreciated.4ASEAN Energy Investment 2024Table of ContentsAcknowledgement.3List of Contents.4List of Figures.5List of Tables.6Abbreviations.7Foreword.9Executive Summary.10Chapter 1:Introduction.12Economic Background of ASEAN Member States.13Sectoral Contributor in Enhancing Economic Structure.14Foreign Direct Investment to Drive Economic Growth.15The Role of Energy Investment in ASEAN Energy Landscape.16Chapter 2:Trends and Opportunities.17Total Energy Demand.18Sectoral Energy Demand.19Energy Supply.21Installed Power Capacity.22Power Generation.23Grid Improvement.24Costs of Renewable Energy.25Critical Materials.26ASEANs Role in the Global Clean Energy Market.28Chapter 3:Challenges .29Policy and Regulatory Environment.30Financing.31Currency Exchange Rate.33Diverse Market Condition.35Infrastructure and Technological Capabilities.37Social and Environmental Concerns.38Chapter 4:Supporting Policies.39Enabling Regulatory Frameworks.40Supporting Policies at National and Regional Levels.44Supporting Policies on the Energy Supply Side.45Supporting Policies on the Energy Demand Side.46Energy Justice in Energy Investment.47Chapter 5:Financial Instrument.49Investment Flows to AMS.50Financing Instruments in ASEAN.51Fiscal and Public Space.525ContentsList of FiguresFigure 1.1 GDP of ASEAN Member States 2013-2022.13Figure 1.2 Structural Economy of ASEAN 2013-2022.14Figure 2.1 Total Final Energy Consumption by Fuel in ASEAN 2005-2050.18Figure 2.2 Total Final Energy Consumption Share by Sector in ASEAN from 2005-2050.19Figure 2.3 Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel in ASEAN 2005-2050.21Figure 2.4 Installed Capacity in ASEAN 2005-2050.22Figure 2.5 Power Generation by Fuel in ASEAN.23Figure 2.6 Share of Critical Materials Production in ASEAN 2020-2022.26Figure 2.7 Critical Materials Price Year-to-Date.27Figure 3.1 ASEAN Energy Subsidies and the Price of Crude Oil.30Figure 3.2 Debt/Equity Ratio of Technology in ASEAN 2003-2023.31Figure 3.3 ASEAN Currencies Against USD from 2023 to 2024.33Figure 4.1 Investment Share by Energy Technology in ASEAN.40Figure 4.2 Cumulative Investment in Energy Infrastructure by Country and Technology Type.41Figure 4.3 Total Investment Value and RISE Scores.42Figure 4.4 The Correlation Coefficient Between RISE RE Sub-indicators and Investment Value.42Figure 5.1 Domestic and Foreign Investment Sources in ASEAN Countries.50Figure 5.2 Investment Flows to AMS.50Figure 5.3 Financing Instruments from Foreign Fund Sources to AMS.51Figure 5.4 Financing Instruments in AMS.51Figure 5.5 Private Participation in ASEAN Energy Infrastructure 2003-2023.53Private Participation.53Cost of Capital as Private Investment Driver.55Blended Financing Instruments to Leverage Private Investment in the AMS.57Green Bonds.59Carbon Credits.60Chapter 6:Country Deep Dive.61Indonesia.62Lao PDR.65Best Practices from Other Regions.71Chapter 7:Implications.75References.786ASEAN Energy Investment 2024Figure 5.6 PPI Schemes in the ASEAN Energy Sector from 2003-2023.54Figure 5.7 Drivers of Cost of Capital.55Figure 5.8 Investment Value in Lower-Middle-Income and Upper-Middle-Income Countries.57Figure 5.9 ASEAN Transactions by Blended Instruments in 2022.58Figure 5.10 Green Bonds Issuance in ASEAN 2016-2023.59Figure 6.1 Indonesias Total Primary Energy 2005-2022 .62Figure 6.2 RE Share by Type 2018-2022.63Figure 6.3 Energy Investment Share in Indonesia by Financing Instrument and Country of Origin 2021 2023.63Figure 6.4 Lao PDR Total Primary Energy Supply 2005-2022.66Figure 6.5 Value and Share of Energy Investment in Lao PDR by Financing Instrument,2021 2023.67Figure 6.6 Energy Investment Value in Lao PDR by Investors Country,2021 2023.67Figure 6.7 Monsoon Project Sponsors and Equity Shares.69Figure 6.8 Monsoon Project Debt Financing Source.70Figure 6.9 Energy Investment in China 2015 2023.71Figure 6.10 Total Primary Energy Supply in Denmark 2010 2022.72Figure 6.11 The CO2 Emissions in Denmark by Sector,2010 2022.72Figure 6.12 Total Primary Energy Supply in the United Kingdom,2010 2022.73Figure 6.13 CO2 Emissions in the UK by Sector,2010 2022.74List of TablesTable 1.1 ASEAN Member States Credit Ratings by Agency.15Table 3.1 Electricity Market Status in ASEAN Countries.35Table 4.1 ASEAN Countries RISE Scores for Renewable Energy.41Table 4.2 AMS Detailed RISE Scores for Renewable Energy,2021.43Table 4.3 ASEAN Member States Energy Planning Targets.44Table 4.4 Renewable Energy Policy Measures.45Table 4.5 Forms of Justice Theory.47Table 5.1 Drivers of Investor Risk Perception.55Table 6.1 Tax Holiday Provision in Indonesia.65Table 6.2 Regulatory Indicators:Incentives and Regulatory Support for Renewable Energy.707AbbreviationsAbbreviationsACEASEAN Centre for EnergyADBAsian Development BankAEO7The 7th ASEAN Energy OutlookAIFASEAN Infrastructure FundAIIBAsian Infrastructure Investment BankAMSASEAN Member StatesAPAECASEAN Plan of Action for Energy CooperationAPGASEAN Power GridASEANAssociation of Southeast Asia NationATSAMS Target ScenarioBIMP-PIPBrunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines Power Interconnection ProjectBOOBuild-Own-OperateBOTBuild-Operate-TransferBPDLHBadan Pengelola Dana Lingkungan Hidup/Indonesian Environment FundCITCorporate Income TaxDFIDevelopment Finance InstitutionEMRElectricity Market ReformESGEnvironmental,Social,GovernanceESMAPEnergy Sector Management Assistance ProgramEVElectric VehicleFCYForeign Currency YieldFDIForeign Direct InvestmentFiTFeed-in TariffGBPGreat Britain PoundGDPGross Domestic ProductGHGGreenhouse GasGITAGreen Investment Tax AllowanceGITEGreen Income Tax ExemptionGSSBGreen,Social and Sustainability BondsGWGigawattGWpGigawatt-peakIDRIndonesian RupiahIEAInternational Energy AgencyIFCInternational Finance CorporationIPPIndependent Power ProducerJETPJust Energy Transition PartnershipJICAJapan International Cooperation AgencykVKilovolt8ASEAN Energy Investment 2024kWhKilowatt per hourLao PDRLao Peoples Democratic RepublicLCOELevelised Cost of EnergyLCYLocal Currency YieldLEAPLeading Asias Private Infrastructure FundLNGLiquified Natural GasLPGLiquefied Petroleum GasLTMS-PIPLaos-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration ProjectMtCO2Metric tonnes of CO2MtoeMillion tonne of oil equivalentMWhMegawatt per hourNCIPNational Commission on Indigenous PeoplesNDCNationally Determined ContributionPLNPerusahaan Listrik Negara/Indonesian state-owned electricity companyPPAPower Purchase AgreementPPIPrivate Participation in InfrastructurePPPPublic-Private PartnershipPSNProyek Strategis Nasional/National strategic projectPSOPublic Service ObligationPSWPrivate Sector WindowPVPhotovoltaicRERenewable EnergyRECRenewable Energy CertificateREDD+Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing CountriesREERare earth elementRISERegulatory Indicators for Sustainable EnergyRPSRenewable Portfolio StandardSAFSustainable Aviation FuelSOEState-Owned EnterprisestCO2eTonnes CO2 equivalentTFECTotal Final Energy ConsumptionTPESTotal Primary Energy SupplyTWhTerawatt per hourUK ETSUK Emissions Trading SchemeUNESCAPUnited Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the PacificUSDUnited States DollarVATValue Added TaxVGFViability Gap Fund9ForewordsForewordsThe ASEAN Centre for Energy(ACE)plays a crucial role as a regional knowledge hub and think tank,providing ASEAN Member States(AMS)with insights into current and future energy trends.Recognising the importance of investment in driving sustainable development,the ASEAN Energy Investment(AEI)Report offers comprehensive updates that not only highlight investment trends in the region but also address barriers and provide recommendations for overcoming challenges.Whilst the global foreign direct investment(FDI)flows declined,even after recovering from the pandemic,ASEAN showed the regions resiliency through an increase in FDI of more than 17%in 2022,reaching USD 224 billion.As one of the largest economies in the world,driven by a transition toward service and industry,the energy sector plays a key role in maintaining this trend.The innovation and adoption of emerging technologies offer solutions to meet future energy demands in a sustainable,affordable,and resilient manner,reshaping the investment landscape of the energy sector.However,challenges in financing ASEANs energy transition remain.Currently,around 57%of energy projects are financed through commercial banks,signalling the regions limited ability to diversify its funding sources.This is also due to the high upfront capital needed,making debt financing a primary source of financing,whilst the capital market remains underutilised.Yet,ASEAN has shown notable growth in green bond issuance over the past few years.Along with that,a few AMS also show growing domestic capital market figures,with more than 50%of capital for energy infrastructure sourced domestically.Given the limited public funds available for financing the energy transition,partnerships with other countries and international organisations are essential not only to reduce the investment gap but also to provide financial aid to support AMS achieve their national and regional energy goals toward carbon neutrality.Approximately 17%of funding for energy infrastructure comes from multilateral and bilateral debt,reflecting the vital role of international partnerships in addressing financing hurdles.Furthermore,the public sector could amplify its role by pushing for clear incentives and regulatory support,which has been proven to affect investment decisions in the region.The perceived risk by private investors in ASEAN energy investment needs to be mitigated not only with a well-designed policy package but also by addressing the manner in which stakeholders are engaged.The AEI 2024 Report highlights the importance of improving the legal and institutional framework and creating financial instruments that accelerate energy investment opportunities.This report reflects ACEs commitment to supporting the AMS in their journey toward clean energy.It is aligned with the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation(APAEC)2021-2025,especially the Regional Energy Policy and Planning(REPP)programme area.By working together,we can achieve our shared goals of a just and inclusive energy transition through collaborative and innovative strategies across the ASEAN region.I would like to express my profound thanks for the ACE teams efforts and our partners support.I hope this report will act as a vital reference for stakeholders,and a guide for policymakers and decision-makers in creating holistic and supportive regulations for ASEAN energy investment.Beni SuryadiActing Executive Director,ACE10ASEAN Energy Investment 2024ASEAN has experienced remarkable economic growth in recent years,and demonstrated a swift recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.Strong GDP growth in the region has attracted foreign investors,leading to increased Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)inflows,even amid a global post-pandemic decline.Whilst ASEAN offers appealing investment opportunities,it still faces complex investment risks,particularly in renewable energy projects.The regions steady socio-economic growth signals a transformative expansion in its energy sector,attracting potential investment opportunities across various aspects of energy supply and demand.ASEANs Total Final Energy Consumption(TFEC)is projected to reach approximately 735 Mtoe by 2050,or nearly a 69%increase relative to 2023 levels.This is primarily due to energy-intensive activities,such as manufacturing and transportation.Recovery of economic activities following the COVID-19 pandemic,coupled with ambitious renewable energy targets and policy measures aimed at enhancing energy efficiency,will affect a surge in demand in key sectors,including residential,transportation,and heavy industry.ASEANs Total Primary Energy Supply(TPES)is projected to increase significantly,with fossil fuels continuing to play a major role.The region is set to achieve a 23%share of renewable energy in its energy mix,particularly through solar,wind,and hydropower.This transition,supported by favourable policies and declining technology costs,will require substantial investments in renewable technologies,particularly in modernising infrastructure.ASEANs power sector presents compelling investment opportunities in both installed capacity and power generation,with a focus on expanding ren