2024年全球天然气安全评估（英）.pdf

Global Gas Security Review 2024Including the Gas Market Report Q4-2024The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea LithuaniaLuxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|3 Abstract AbstractFollowing the gas supply shock of 2022/23,natural gas markets have returned to more pronounced growth,with global gas demand expected to reach new all-time highs in both 2024 and 2025.At the same time,the global gas balance remains fragile amid limited LNG supply growth and geopolitical tensions.The Global Gas Security Review has provided a thorough assessment of the evolution of gas supply security and LNG contracting trends each year since its first publication by the International Energy Agency(IEA)in 2016.This years edition also includes the latest insights of the IEAs quarterly Gas Market Report,which provides a review of market developments over the first three quarters of 2024 and a short-term outlook for the remainder of the year and through 2025.It highlights the need for responsible producers and consumers to work together to reinforce the architecture of global gas supply security.Beyond the growing complexity of gas supply security both in the short and long term,the decarbonisation of the global energy system will require the deployment and scaling up of low-emissions gases.As part of the IEAs Low-Emissions Gases Work Programme,this years Review includes a special section on this topic,with a focus on the system integration of low-emissions gases in the transport sector.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|4 Table of contents Table of contentsExecutive summary.5 Review of key gas supply security events in 2024.11 Gas market update.26 LNG contracting and flexibility update.55 System integration of low-emissions gases.74 Annex.86 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|5 Executive summary Executive summary IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|6 Executive summary A fragile balance:Natural gas markets remain sensitive two years after the gas supply shockFollowing the supply shock of 2022/23,natural gas markets returned to more pronounced growth in 2024.This forecast expects global gas demand to reach new all-time highs in 2024 and 2025.However,the global gas balance remains fragile as limited growth in LNG production is keeping supply tight,while geopolitical tensions continued to cause price volatility.Markets remain sensitive to unexpected supply or demand side movements.LNG shipping constraints emerged across the Panama Canal and the Red Sea in 2024.While this did not lead to a decline in LNG supply,it highlights the potential vulnerabilities of LNG trade in an increasingly interconnected global gas market.Responsible producers and consumers will need to work together to reinforce the architecture for secure global gas supplies amid mounting geopolitical tensions.Flexibility mechanisms along gas and LNG value chains could be enhanced by improving the liquidity of the global LNG market,integrating the Ukrainian gas storage system into the global gas market and considering potential frameworks for voluntary gas reserve mechanisms.Global gas demand is set to grow to new all-time highs in 2024 and 2025,primarily supported by Asia Preliminary data suggest that natural gas consumption increased by 2.8%year-on-year(y-o-y)in the first three quarters of 2024 1 Asia,Central and South America,Eurasia,Europe and North America.(Q1-Q3 2024)well above the 2%average growth rate between 2010 and 2020.The fast-growing markets of Asia accounted for the majority of this growth.First estimates indicate that growth in natural gas demand slowed to below 2%in Q3 2024 in the markets covered in this report.1 In part,the easing reflects the gradual recovery in demand,which was already underway in the second half of 2023.Higher gas prices also contributed to slower demand growth in Q3 2024.For the full year of 2024,global gas demand is forecast to grow by more than 2.5%(or just over 100 bcm)and reach a new all-time high of 4 200 bcm.The Asia Pacific region is expected to account for almost 45%of incremental global gas demand.Industry and energy own use is emerging as the primary driver behind stronger gas use and is projected to contribute more than half of demand growth.This is partly supported by the continued economic expansion in fast-growing Asian markets.The recovery in Europes industrial gas demand is also contributing even though it remains well below its pre-crisis levels.Global gas demand is forecast to increase by another 2.3%(or nearly 100 bcm)in 2025.Similarly to 2024,this growth is largely supported by Asia,which alone is expected to account for over half of incremental gas demand.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|7 Executive summary Natural gas supply remains fundamentally tight,with uncertainties weighing on the 2025 outlook Global LNG supply growth remained weak in Q1-Q3 2024,increasing by a mere 2%(or 7 bcm)y-o-y.This is well-below its 8%average annual growth rate between 2016 and 2020.Project delays together with feedgas supply issues at certain legacy producers(including in Angola,Egypt,Trinidad and Tobago)weighed on LNG production growth.The expected start-ups of the Plaquemines LNG export terminal in the United States and Tortue FLNG off the coast of West Africa are expected to improve LNG supply availability in Q4 2024.For the full year of 2024,global LNG supply is expected to grow by 2%(or 10 bcm)its slowest growth rate since 2020.LNG supply growth is set to accelerate to near 6%(or 30 bcm)in 2025 as several large LNG projects come online.North America is expected to account for about 85%of global incremental LNG supply in 2025,with nearly three-quarters(16 bcm)of these North American volumes coming from the United States.Africa and Asia are also expected to contribute to LNG supply growth in 2025.Russias Arctic LNG 2 project is not considered as a source of firm LNG supply in the current forecast,considering the broader sanctions environment.The future of Russian gas transit via Ukraine is a key uncertainty ahead of the 2024/25 winter,as Russias gas transit contract with Ukraine expires at the end of 2024.This forecast assumes no Russian piped gas deliveries via Ukraine to Europe from January 2025.Our assessment indicates that the halt of Ukrainian transit would not pose an immediate supply security risk to Austria,Hungary and Slovakia considering their ample storage capacity,midstream interconnectivity and indirect access to the global LNG market.The vulnerability of Moldova is significantly greater and would require a close cooperation between Moldova and regional and international partners to ensure energy supply security over the winter season.An end to Ukrainian transit would reduce Russian piped gas supplies to Europe by around 15 bcm compared to 2024.This in turn could require higher LNG imports for Europe in 2025 and consequently lead to a tighter global gas balance.The strong momentum behind LNG project development continued in 2024 even with no US projects reaching final investment decision Since Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine,over 150 bcm per year of LNG liquefaction capacity has been approved.The United States alone accounted for 75%of the liquefaction capacity approved between 2022 and 2023.The strong momentum behind LNG project development continued in Q1-Q3 2024,with just over 45 bcm per year of LNG liquefaction capacity receiving approval,including Qatars North Field West project.In contrast,no US LNG project has reached final investment decision(FID)since January 2024 following the introduction of a IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|8 Executive summary temporary pause on pending decisions for exports of LNG to countries that do not have free trade agreements with the United States.The Middle East was the driving force behind LNG project approvals globally in 2024,led by Qatar,the United Arab Emirates and Oman.Together with Qatars expansion projects,LNG liquefaction plants that have reached financial investment decision or are under construction would add over 270 bcm per year of export capacity by the end of 2030.This strong increase in LNG production capacity could loosen market fundamentals and ease gas supply security concerns in the second half of the decade.Recent LNG contracting trends indicate a stronger interest in long-term,destination-fixed LNG contracts LNG contracting activity since 2023 has displayed a trend towards long-term,destination-fixed contracts.Agreements with a duration of at least 10 years have accounted for 85%of the volumes contracted since the start of 2023.Destination-fixed agreements have regained traction and accounted for more than 70%of volumes contracted since 2023.Large contracts(over 4 bcm per year)accounted for 57%of contracted volumes in 2023,the largest share since 2017.Their share declined to 39%in 2024 but remained well above its five-year average.The gas supply shock of 2022/23 and consequent volatility may have reminded both buyers and sellers of the importance of long-term contracts to secure a stable supply and reduce short-term price variability.The liquidity and pricing diversity of the global LNG market are expected to increase over the medium-term Despite the return to more traditional features in LNG contracting since 2023,the global LNG market is expected to gain in terms of depth and liquidity over the medium term.The share of destination-free contracts is expected to increase to 51%by 2027,amid the gradual expiry of destination-fixed legacy contracts and the entrance into force of new destination-flexible agreements.In addition to traditional suppliers,the role of portfolio players is set to further increase.Based on existing contracts,the share of portfolio players procurement contracts in total LNG contracts in force is set to rise from 41%in 2023 to nearly 45%by 2027.Pricing terms are becoming more diverse.Based on existing contracts,the share of oil-indexed contracts is expected to shrink from 56%in 2023 to 52%by 2027 amid the growing role of gas-to-gas indexation and hybrid pricing formulae.The transport sector can enable the system integration of low-emissions gases Low-emissions gases can play an important role in the decarbonisation of long-haul,heavy-duty transport,where electrification so far has made slower progress compared with light-duty vehicles.The transport sector is expected to be a key driver behind incremental demand over the medium term.This years Global Gas Security Review provides a special focus on the use of low-emissions gases in the transport sector.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|9 Executive summary Global gas trade is set to continue to grow in 2025,supported by higher LNG supply IEA.CC BY 4.0.Year-on-year change in key piped natural gas trade and global LNG supply,2019-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|10 Executive summary The flexibility of the global LNG market is set to increase over the medium term IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Destination flexibility is only for indicative purposes,assumed in the absence of a clear source of information.Destination-flexible contracts are typically underpinned by FOB shipping arrangements.Source:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2024),ICIS LNG Edge.LNG contracts by destination flexibility 2023 2027 53%47%49%51%IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|11 Review of key gas supply security events in 2024 Review of key gas supply security events in 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global Gas Security Review 2024 PAGE|12 Review of key gas supply security events in 2024 Natural gas supply security concerns continued to fuel price volatility in 2024 Following the 2022-23 gas supply shock,markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing and returned to more pronounced growth in 2024.While natural gas prices have softened across all key markets compared to their 2022 highs,the supply side remains fundamentally tight amid below-average LNG supply growth.In this context,markets remain sensitive and vulnerable to unexpected supply-and/or demand-side movements.Uncertainties around future natural gas supplies,including from Russia,continued to fuel price volatility.Historical monthly volatility on the TTF month-ahead contract averaged 50%in Q1-Q3 2024,standing 34%above the historical average during 2010-21.The interplay between gas supply flexibility and electricity security remained strong in 2024.In the United States winter storm Heather drove up electricity demand by nearly 20%in just four days,with gas-fired power generation meeting almost 80%of incremental demand.Gas storage played a crucial role in ensuring gas deliverability during the winter cold spell,as cold temperatures led to a steep decline in natural gas production due to wellhead freeze-offs.In Colombia in January the government declared a national disaster situation for a period of 12 months due to the impact of the El Nio weather phenomenon,which brought extreme drought and sizzling heatwaves.While Colombias hydropower output decreased by over 25%y-o-y from January through to April,gas-fired power plants ramped up their output by more than 164%y-o-y during the same period.Colombia met the additional gas demand requirements primarily by increasing its LNG imports,which rose fifteen-fold y-o-y during the January-April period.India experienced its longest heatwave ever during the May-July period,with temperatures climbing to above 50 C in certain parts of the country.Gas-to-power demand rose by 34%y-o-y during these three months,as higher cooling needs drove up electricity demand and increased the call on gas-fired power plants.LNG imports surged by 60%y-o-y during this May-July period,playing a key role in meeting incremental gas demand.LNG shipping constraints emerged along key routes in 2024,with notable impli