2024年从评估到采取行动-如何实现COP28能源目标（英）.pdf

World Energy Outlook Special ReportFrom Taking Stock to Taking ActionHow to implement the COP28 energy goalsINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYIEA member countries:Australia Austria BelgiumCanadaCzech Republic DenmarkEstoniaFinland France Germany Greece HungaryIreland ItalyJapanKoreaLithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand NorwayPoland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Trkiye United Kingdom United StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org Foreword 3 Foreword Ahead of the COP28 climate change conference hosted by the United Arab Emirates in December 2023,new analysis from the International Energy Agency(IEA)underscored both the high stakes and the major opportunities.Record growth in a number of clean energy technologies was keeping open a path to achieving net zero emissions from the global energy sector by mid-century.But without much stronger international action,emissions would not decline anywhere near fast enough and the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 C,as called for in the Paris Agreement,would be in severe jeopardy.Drawing on our data and analysis,the IEA developed five pillars for global action in the energy sector by 2030 that could help keep the 1.5 C goal alive.These included tripling renewable energy capacity,doubling the rate of energy efficiency progress and significantly reducing methane emissions from fossil fuels.And we ramped up efforts to foster broad consensus around 1.5 C-aligned transition pathways,convening a summit on this topic with the Government of Spain and hosting a series of High-Level Energy Transition Dialogues with the COP28 Presidency.When nearly 200 countries at COP28 in Dubai agreed on a powerful package of energy commitments including the tripling and doubling goals,a call to slash methane emissions and a historic pledge to transition away from fossil fuels in a just,orderly and equitable manner it was a moment to cherish.In a challenging context,the“UAE Consensus delivered a vision for a net zero energy future that could be transformative.Yet change is never a given.And with the approach of COP29,which will be hosted in Baku,Azerbaijan,the focus must continue to shift towards implementing the promises made in Dubai.This report addresses what that means in practice,providing timely and constructive guidance for decision makers around the world.It will play an important role as the IEA continues to drive forward the international discussion on energy and climate goals,including through a new series of High-Level Energy Transition Dialogues in partnership with the COP29 Presidency.One priority the report makes clear is that countries need to quickly translate the COP28 pledges into domestic energy policies.The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions,or NDCs,due in 2025,presents an unmissable opportunity.These new national climate plans will collectively form the backbone of international climate progress and cooperation for the next decade and beyond.While every country will have its own pathway to achieve its energy and climate goals,all can and should determine how they can help turn the COP28 outcomes into reality.The report also finds that the world is on track to produce enough solar panels and related materials to meet the goal of tripling renewable capacity this decade.But we need to transform this capacity into electricity.This will require a significant pick-up in investment in grids and storage.If this does not happen,the use of coal will not decline and neither will global emissions.IEA.CC BY 4.0.4 International Energy Agency|From Taking Stock to Taking Action Another important takeaway is on energy efficiency,which has been central to the IEAs work since its founding 50 years ago.This report sets out with great clarity how to reach the critical goal of doubling efficiency progress this decade,looking at what is needed across economies at all stages of development.What it finds is that even though the world is not on track based on todays policies,a course correction is still possible with a concerted global push.The IEA will continue to provide the data and analysis to develop unbiased advice for clean,secure and affordable energy transitions around the world.Our landmark Net Zero Roadmap,first published in 2021,helped set the original vision.Now,as countries seek to move forwards,the IEA will keep mapping out practical pathways to reach the goals that have been set,while bringing leaders together to catalyse further bold action.I would like to thank the team of IEA colleagues who worked on this important analysis,led by Laura Cozzi and Thomas Spencer.Im confident that this report will provide a strong foundation for further progress towards a better energy future for all.Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements 5 Acknowledgements This International Energy Agency(IEA)report was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi,Director for Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks.Thomas Spencer was the lead author and co-ordinated the analysis.Other main authors and analysts include:Caleigh Andrews(coal power),Oskaras Alauskas(COP28 implementation),Yasmine Arsalane(coal power,COP28 implementation),Herib Blanco(hydrogen),Lucas Boehle(energy efficiency),Sara Budinis(carbon capture,utilisation and storage),Hana Chambers(multilateral processes),Daniel Crow(COP28 implementation),Tomas de Oliveira Bredariol(methane),Nouhoun Diarra(access),Musa Erdogan(subsidies)Paul Grimal(investment),Martin Kueppers(industry,decomposition analysis),Luca Lo Re(Nationally Determined Contributions and pledges),Christophe McGlade(fossil fuels),Isabella Notarpietro(access),Gabriel Saive(Nationally Determined Contributions and pledges),Siddharth Singh(subsidies and affordability),Cecilia Tam(investment),Gianluca Tonolo(access),Fabian Voswinkel(energy efficiency)and Brent Wanner(power).Marina Dos Santos and Eleni Tsoukala provided essential support.Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility.Julia Horowitz contributed to editing.Debra Justus was the copy-editor.Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and colleagues within the IEA,in particular Dan Dorner,Tim Gould,Timur Gl,Dennis Hesseling,Pablo Hevia-Koch,Brian Motherway and Keisuke Sadamori.Thanks to the IEA Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing the report and website materials,particularly Jethro Mullen,Poeli Bojorquez,Curtis Brainard,Astrid Dumond,Grace Gordon,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Wonjik Yang.The IEA Office of the Legal Counsel,Office of Management and Administration and Energy Data Centre provided assistance throughout the preparation of the report.The IEA Clean Energy Transitions Programme,the flagship initiative to transform the worlds energy system to achieve a secure and sustainable future for all,supported this work.IEA.CC BY 4.0.6 International Energy Agency|From Taking Stock to Taking Action Peer reviewers Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report.Their comments and suggestions were of great value.They include:Keigo Akimoto Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth,Japan Anne-Sophie Cerisola Independent Climate Action consultant Russell Conklin US Department of Energy Mariana de Assis Especie Ministry of Mines and Energy,Brazil James Grabert UN Climate Change Miguel Gil-Tertre European Commission Selwin Hart United Nations Dave Jones EMBER Rui Luo Bloomberg Philanthropies Abdullah Malek COP28 United Arab Emirates Sofia Martinez International Institute for Environment and Development Satoshi Matsushita Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Japan Rachel McCormick Department of Natural Resources,Canada Vincent Minier Schneider Electric Damilola Ogunbiyi SEforALL Cdric Philibert French Institute of International Relations,Centre for Energy&Climate Vicky Pollard Directorate-General for Climate Action,European Commission Vera Rodenhoff Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action,Germany Jesse Scott Deutsches Institut fr Wirtschaftsforschung (German Institute for Economic Research)Hiroyasu Sakaguchi Mitsubishi Corporation Laurens Speelman RMI Gwynne Taraska Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate,United States Laurence Tubiana European Climate Foundation Valvanera Ulargui Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge,Spain David Victor University of California,San Diego,United States Sophie Westlake Department for Energy Security&Net Zero,United Kingdom IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements 7 The work reflects the views of the International Energy Agency Secretariat,but does not necessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries or of any particular funder,supporter or collaborator.None of the IEA or any funder,supporter or collaborator that contributed to this work make any representation or warranty,express or implied,with respect of the works content(including its completeness or accuracy)and shall not be responsible for any use of,or reliance on,the work.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to:Laura Cozzi Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks International Energy Agency 9,rue de la Fdration 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France E-mail:weoiea.org www.iea.org IEA.CC BY 4.0.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of Contents 9 Table of Contents Foreword.3 Acknowledgements.5 Executive summary.11 From taking stock to taking action 17 1 Introduction.17 2 Where do we stand today?.21 3 Pathways to meet the COP28 outcome energy goals.26 3.1 Full implementation of the COP28 outcome.26 3.2 Partial implementation of the COP28 outcome.27 4 Guidebook to implement the COP28 energy goals.31 4.1 Triple renewables capacity.31 4.2 Double energy efficiency.35 4.3 Accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal-fired power generation.44 4.4 Transition away from fossil fuels.47 4.5 Accelerate zero-and low-emissions technologies.52 4.6 Reduce emissions from road transportation.57 4.7 Reduce methane emissions.59 5 Transition in a just,orderly and equitable manner.62 5.1 Clean energy investment.62 5.2 Subsidy removal and affordability.67 6 Integrate the COP28 outcome into NDCs and net zero emissions strategies.70 6.1 Energy-related emissions benchmarks in line with the COP28 outcome.70 6.2 Integrating COP28 goals into NDC design for climate clarity,implementation and investment certainty.71 6.3 Next steps for multilateral engagement.74 References.77 IEA.CC BY 4.0.IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive Summary 11 Executive Summary COP28 set an ambitious course correction for the global energy sector The 28th Conference of the Parties(COP28)delivered both a vision for creating a net zero energy system and a pledge by almost 200 countries to take actions to achieve it.Long due,it arrived at a time when the world continues to break records for energy-related emissions and global temperatures,as well as records for clean energy investment and deployment.Without the surge of clean energy technologies,emissions growth since the Covid-19 pandemic would have been three times larger.Yet the world is still falling far short of its Paris Agreement goals to limit global warming.Despite a challenging geopolitical,economic and climate backdrop,countries came together at COP28 and agreed on the“UAE Consensus,”setting ambitious global energy transition goals.These include,among others,reaching global net zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050;transitioning away from fossil fuels in line with net zero emissions by 2050;tripling the global installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030;doubling of the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030;and accelerating the deployment of other critical low-emissions technologies.This report analyses what full implementation of the COP28 goals would mean for the energy system and its emissions,assesses the risks and pitfalls of partial implementation,and discusses how countries can integrate the COP28 outcome into the next round of their targets under the Paris Agreement.These Nationally Determined Contributions,or NDCs,extend until 2035.The COP28 goals build on growing clean energy momentum and could keep the path to net zero by 2050 open The tripling renewables and doubling efficiency targets could,on their own,get the world fully two-thirds of the way to a Paris-aligned energy system by 2030.If done correctly,their achievement would reduce the worlds GHG emissions by 10 billion tonnes by the end of the decade compared with what is otherwise expected.If achieved as part of a comprehensive implementation of the COP28 outcome balanced across countries,sectors and technologies,and with the necessary enabling infrastructure this would keep open the path to net zero emissions by 2050 and give a chance albeit still slim and difficult of holding warming to 1.5 C.In contrast,if countries only focus on a subset of the COP28 outcomes,fail to translate them into comprehensive plans and policies,or are slow to develop the necessary enabling infrastructure such as storage and grids,then most of the huge positive potential promised at COP28 will remain unrealised.Countries need to translate the COP28 goals into domestic energy policies Country pathways and enabling conditions differ,but all countries can and must strengthen work on contributing to the COP28 goals in national policies and new NDCs due in 2025.Not all goals in the COP28 vision are given equal detail;how they are translated into IEA.CC BY 4.0.12 International Energy Agency|From Taking Stock to Taking Action national plans and policies will be key.Where there is ambiguity,the overarching goal of net zero emissions by 2050 should shape responses.Individual countries contributions to achieving the COP28 goals will and should vary.At the same time,the COP28 goals are not a menu from which countries can pick and choose:together they form a high-level,multilateral roadmap the ene