顺天大厦项目投资建设可行性分析论证研究报告投资建设可行性分析论证研究报告.doc

球还是水球？ The Wayle is a small river that cuts across the park near my home. I like sitting by the Wayle on fine afternoons. It was warm last Sunday, so I went and sat on the river bank as usual. Some children were playing games on the bank and there were some people rowing on the river. Suddenly, one of the children kicked a ball very hard and it went towards a passing boat. Some people on the bank called out to the man in the boat, but he did not hear them. The ball struck him so hard that he nearly fell into the water. I turned to look at the children, but there weren't any in sight: they had all run away! The man laughed when he realized what had happened. He called out to the children and threw the ball back to the bank.    Lesson31 Success story 成功者的故事 Yesterday afternoon Frank Hawkins was telling me about his experiences as a young man. Frank is now the head of a very large business company, but as a boy he used to work in a small shop. It was his job to repair bicycles and at that time he used to work fourteen hours a day. He saved money for years and in 1938 he bought a small work-shop of his own. During the war Frank used to make spare parts for aeroplanes. At that time he had two helpers. By the end of the war, the small work-shop had become a large factory which employed seven hundred and twenty-eight people. Frank smiled when he remembered his hard early years and the long road to success. He was still smiling when the door opened and his wife came in. She wanted him to repair their son's bicycle!    Lesson32 Shopping made easy 购物变得很方便 People are not so honest as they once were. The temptation to steal is greater than ever before--especially in large shops. A detective recently watched a well-dressed woman who always went into a large store on Monday mornings. One Monday, there were fewer people in the shop than usual when the woman came in, so it was easier for the detective to watch her. The woman first bought a few small articles. After a little time, she chose one of the most expensive dresses in the shop and handed it to an assistant who wrapped it up for her as quickly as possible. Then the woman simply took the parcel and walked out of the shop without paying. When she was arrested, the detective found out that the shop-assistant was her daughter. The girl' gave' her mother a free dress once a week !   lesson33 Out of the darkness 冲出黑暗 Nearly a week passed before the girl was able to explain what had happened to her. One afternoon she set out from the coast in a small boat and was caught in a storm. Towards evening, the boat struck a rock and the girl jumped into the sea. Then she swam to the shore after spending the whole night in the water. During that time she covered a distance of eight miles. Early next morning, she saw a light ahead. She knew she was near the shore because the light was high up on the cliffs. On arriving at the shore, the girl struggled up the cliff towards the light she had seen. That was all she remembered. When she woke up a day later, she found herself in hospital.   Lesson34 Quick work 破案“神速” Ted Robinson has been worried all the week. Last Tuesday he received a letter  from the local police. In the letter he was asked to call at the station. Ted wondered  why he was wanted by the police, but he went to the station yesterday and now he is not worried any more. At the station, he was told by a smiling policeman that his bicycle had been found. Five days ago, the policeman told him, the bicycle was picked up in a small village four hundred miles away. It is now being sent to his home by train. Ted was most surprised when he heard the news. He was  amused too, because he never expected the bicycle to be found. It was stolen twenty years ago when Ted was a boy of fifteen !   Lesson35  Stop thief! 捉贼！ Rov Trenton used to drive a taxi. A short while ago, however, he became a bus-driver and he was not regretted it. He is finding his new work far more exciting. When he was driving along Catford Street recently, he saw two thieves rush out of a shop and run towards a waiting car. One of them was carrying a bag full of money. Roy acted quickly and drove the bus straight at the thieves. The one with the money got such a fright that he dropped the bag. As the thieves were trying to get away in their car, Roy drove his bus into the back of it. While the battered car was moving away, Roy stopped his bus and telephoned the police. The thieves' car was badly damaged and easy to recognize. Shortly afterwards, the police stopped the car and both men were arrested.    Lesson36 Across the Channel 横渡海峡 Erna Hart is going to swim across the English Channel tomorrow. She is going to set out from the French coast at five o'clock in the morning. Erna is only fourteen years old and she hopes lo set up a new world record. She is a strong swimmer and many people feel that she is sure to succeed. Erna's father will set out with her in a small boat. Mr Hart has trained his daughter for years. Tomorrow he will be watching her anxiously as she swims the long distance to England. Erna intends to take short rests every two hours. She will have something to drink but she will not eat any solid food. Most of Erna's school friends will be waiting for her on the English coast. Among them will be Erna's mother, who swam the Channel herself when she was a girl.   Lesson37 The Olympic Games 奥林匹克运动会 The Olympic Games will be held in our country in four years' time. As a great many people will be visiting the country, the government will be building new hotels, an immense stadium, and a fine new swimming pool. 'They will also be building new roads and a special railway-line. The Games will be held just outside the capital and the whole area will be called 'Olympic City'. Workers will have completed the new roads by the end of this year. By the end of next year, they will have finished work on the new stadium. The fine modern buildings have been designed by Kurt Gunter. Everybody will be watching anxiously as the new buildings go up. We are all very excited and are looking forward to the Olympic Games because they have never been held before in this country.   Lesson38 Everything except the weather 惟独没有考虑到天气 My old friend, Harrison, had lived in the Mediterranean for many years before he returned to England. He had often dreamed of retiring in England and had planned to settle down in the country. He had no sooner returned than he bought a fine house and went to live there. Almost immediately he began to complain about the weather, for even though it was still summer, it rained continually and it was often bitterly cold. After so many years of sunshine, Harrison got a shock. He acted as if he had never lived in England before. In the end, it was more than he could bear. He had hardly had time to settle down when he sold the house and left the country. The dream he had had for so many years ended there. Harrison had thought of everything except the weather.   Lesson39 Am I all right? 我是否痊愈？ While John Gilbert was in hospital, he asked his doctor to tell him whether his operation had been successful, but the doctor refused to do so. The following day, the patient asked for a bedside   telephone. When he was alone, he telephoned the hospital exchange and asked for Doctor Millington. When the doctor answered the phone, Mr Gilbert said he was inquiring about a certain patient, a Mr John Gilbert. He asked if Mr Gilbert's operation had been successful and the doctor told him that it had been. He then asked when Mr Gilbert would be allowed to go home and the doctor told him that he would have to stay in hospital for another two weeks. Then Dr Millington asked the caller if he was a relative of the patient.' No,' the patient answered,' I am Mr John Gilbert.'      Lesson40 Food and talk 进餐与交谈 Last week at a dinner-party, the hostess asked me to sit next to Mrs Rumbold. Mrs Rumbold was a large, unsmiling lady in a tight black dress. She did not even look up when I took my seat beside her. Her eyes were fixed on her plate and in a short time, she was busy eating. I tried to make
顺天大厦项目可行性研究报告
目 录
1 总 论 4
1.1 项目概况 4
1.2 项目建设的必要性 4
1.3 可行性研究报告编制依据 5
1.4 主要技术经济指标与研究结论 6
2 项目选址及建设条件 7
2.1 项目所处区域 7
2.2 项目建设地点 9
2.3 建设条件 11
3 市场分析 12
3.1 沈阳市写字楼市场现状 12
3.2 沈阳市写字楼市场分类研究 13
3.3 项目影响因素分析 14
3.4 项目STWO分析 17
4 营销方案设计 22
4.1 项目名称及产品定位 22
4.2 目标客户 23
4.3 管理方案设计 25
4.4 定价策略 26
4.5 销售安排 27
5 项目建设方案 29
5.1 建筑设计方案 29
5.2 结构设计方案 32
5.3 公用设施方案 33
6 专篇设计 38
6.1 消防 38
6.2 节能 41
6.3 防雷 42
6.4 智能配套方案 43
7 环境影响评价 46
7.1 项目建设与运营对环境的影响 46
7.2 环境保护措施 49
7.3 环境保护措施实施评价 51
8 项目组织机构与进度计划 52
8.1 组织机构与人力资源 52
8.2 项目招投标管理 52
8.3 项目实施进度安排 54
9 投资估算与资金筹措 57
9.1 投资估算的依据及说明 57
9.2 总投资估算 58
9.3 资金筹措方案 59
10 经济效益分析 61
10.1 项目销售计划 61
10.2 盈利能力分析 62
10.3 清偿能力分析 63
10.4 不确定分析 63
11 风险分析及对策 66
11.1 政策风险 66
11.2 市场风险 66
11.3 经营管理风险 67
11.4 财务风险 68
12 结论与建议 70
12.1 结论 70
12.2 建议 70

1 总 论
1.1 项目概况
1.1.1 项目情况
项目名称：顺天大厦
项目地址：沈阳市大东区
总建筑面积：19160平方米。其中：公寓及写字间约11369平方米，商铺约为5091平方米，地下停车场及设备用房约2660平方米。
建筑高度：15层（含地下一层）
1.1.2 建设单位情况
建设单位：沈阳市宏建房屋开发有限公司
法人代表：王立祥
资质等级：房地产开发企业资质三级
公司地址：辽宁省沈阳市沈河区彩塔街11号
1.2 项目建设的必要性
1.2.1 实践大东区“十一五”发展规划的需要
在沈阳市大东区“十一五”经济和社会发展规划中指出：结合市府大路沿线餐饮业较发达、东陵西路汽车贸易渐成规模和地铁1号线出口处的潜在商业资源优势，规划发展具有商务休闲、金融中介、特色餐饮、购物娱乐、汽车品牌贸易为特色的商业功能“东扩轴”。本项目处于地铁1号线出口和内环线交汇口，项目的实施实现了相关规划的建设要求
1.2.2 协调大东区产业结构的需要
大东区是沈阳民族工业的发祥地，经过近百年的发展，目前已形成以汽车、飞机发动机、机械设计制造、生物制药、仪器仪表和其他机械制造业为主的庞大的产业群，是中国著名的航空发动机制造基地、数控机床生产基地、轻型汽车生产基地。但是，大东区产业主要以制造业为主，而经济的发展趋势是第三产业渐成主流，本项目的建设对于协调大东区产业结构具有重要的意义。
1.2.3 实现大东区“一带三圈”规划目标的需要
随着沈阳地铁一号线进入大东区，围绕在这里设立的3个站位，大东区将推出“一带三圈”的地铁经济发展框架。其中“一带”指大东区新的经济隆起带。“三圈”指，在地铁一号线津桥站、滂江站、黎明文化宫站站口的周边，半径500~700米的范围内，打造3个经济圈。本项目处于滂江站，依托一环路靠近城市中心区，商业较发达、居民密度较大、收入层次较高和交通便利的优势，重点发展以行政办公、金融保险、信息产业、商务和商贸为主的、具有高科技含量的现代城市集群商业带，拉动和提升城市居民的生活消费水平和消费能级。
1.3 可行性研究报告编制依据
1） 《投资项目可行性研究指南》，2002，国家计委以计办投资[2002]15号文件，中国电力出版社
2） 《建设项目经济评价方法与参数（第三版）》，2006，中国计划出版社
3） 《沈阳市国民经济和社会发展“十一五”计划和远景目标纲要》
4） 《沈阳市城市总体规划大纲（2000—2020年）》
5） 国家、辽宁省及沈阳市政府现行有关规定及文件
6） 《大东区第三产业发展规划（“十五”及2010年）》
7） 房地产开发机构发布的工程建设方面的标准、规范、定额
8） 沈阳市及项目周边地区市场调研和现场勘察资料
9） 投资项目方签定的协议书或意向书
10） 其他有关依据资料
11） 项目批复文件

1.4 主要技术经济指标与研究结论
表1.2 顺天大厦项目主要技术经济指标表
序号
项目
指标
单位
一
建筑类

1
总建筑面积
19160
㎡
2
占地面积
6105.3
㎡
二
投资类

1
项目投入总资金
10175.08
万元
1.1
土地取得费用
3064.86
万元
1.2
前期费用
210.76
万元
1.3
城市基础设施配套费
283.57
万元
1.4
建筑安装工程费
4897.30
万元
1.5
园区配套费
574.80
万元
1.6
管理费用
135.47
万元
1.7
销售费用
220.60
万元
1.8
财务费用
434.15
万元
1.9
预备费
353.57
万元
2
资金筹措
10175.08
万元
2.1
项目资本金
4000.00
万元
2.2
银行借款
5194.54
万元
2.3
销售收入投入
964.91
万元
三
财务类

1
净现值（税后ic=8%）
669.15
万元
2
内部收益率（税后）
14.84%
%
3
静态投资回收期（税后）
1.91
年
4
借款偿还期
1.79
年

“顺天大厦”项目经测算，预计总投资为10175.08万元，预计总销售收入为13787.685万元，经计算，该项目的盈利水平较高、偿债能力较强，而且销售收入及建设投资等不确定性因素基本处于可控范围之内，因此，项目可行，值得投资。
2 项目选址及建设条件
2.1 项目所处区域
2.1.1 沈阳市概况
沈阳是东北地区最大的中心城市。地处东北亚经济圈和环渤海经济圈的中心，具有重要的战略地位。以沈阳为中心，半径150公里的范围内，分布着钢铁基地鞍山、煤炭基地抚顺、化纤基地辽阳、煤铁基地本溪、石油基地盘锦、煤粮基地铁岭、电力基地阜新等7座百万人口以上的大型工商业城市，构成了经济联系特别紧密、市场容量巨大的城市群体，不仅可为工业企业提供丰富的矿产资源，而且还是一个购买力极强的产品销售市场。
沈阳市是中国交通最发达的地区之一，也是东北地区最大的交通枢纽。以沈阳为中心，至北京、大连、哈尔滨、抚顺、丹东高速公路网已经建成。距营口港200公里，距大连港400公里，可与世界140多个国家和地区的港口通航。连接山海关、大连、丹东、长春、哈尔滨等地6条铁路干线汇集于此，并且与朝鲜、蒙古、俄罗斯直接相通。沈阳桃仙国际机场，是东北地区最大的枢纽机场，距大东区20公里。沈阳东站坐落在区内，101条铁路专用线构成发达的货运网络。

图2.1 沈阳市在辽宁省的位置
2.1.2 大东区概况

大东区位于沈阳市东部，是沈阳市市内五城区之一。面积51.18平方公里，人口63万，是沈阳市内面积最大的城区。
一、 交通条件
大东区所在地沈阳是中国交通最发达地区之一，也是东北地区最大的交通枢纽，已形成陆海空立体交通网络。
公路：以沈阳为中心，沈阳至北京、大连、哈尔滨、抚顺、丹东一环五射的高速公路网已经形成。
铁路：沈阳作为东北地区最大的铁路枢纽，铁路网密度居全国首位。连结山海关、大连、丹东、长春、哈尔滨等地6条铁路干线汇集沈阳，并且与朝鲜、蒙古、俄罗斯直接相通。
海运：从沈阳出发，2小时可达营口港，4小时可达大连港，可与世界140多个国家和地区的港口通航。
空运：沈阳桃仙国际机场，是东北地区最大的枢纽机场。从沈海现代工业示范区出发，25分钟可抵桃仙国际机场。以桃仙国际机场为基地的北方航空公司，已开通国内外航线70多条，可直达中国香港特别行政区和国内各主要城市以及朝鲜、俄罗斯、日本、韩国等国家。
货运：沈阳东站座落在大东区内，101条铁路专用线构成发达的货运网络。沈阳一环路、大二环路横穿全区，沈阳市东西快速干道1/3在大东区内。
二、 基础设施
区内基础设施完善、发达。沈海热电厂提供充足的电力，进行各项投资所需的水、煤气等供应充足。工业用地上建筑、必要的专用设备在数量和质量上，居于沈阳市前列。
三、 居住条件
大东区是沈阳市最适合于居住的城区之一，南北两条运河流经全区，沿岸花团锦簇、树木葱荣、景色优美，适合开发高档住宅区；特别是正在建设的大东广场，是沈阳市最大的广场，广场周边地区适合建设金融、保险、高档写字楼等商贸服务设施。除此之外，区内还拥有大片闲置的工业、仓储及生活用地可供开发利用，房地产业发展潜力巨大。
四、 工业基础
大东区是当前沈阳市最具竞争力的工业区。区内聚集了众多优势企业，如沈阳金杯客车制造有限公司、沈阳黎明航发集团、沈阳华润压缩机有限公司、沈阳三洋空调有限公司、沈阳东芝电梯有限公司、沈阳金杯通用汽车有限公司、沈海热电厂等。同时，还吸引了一大批国外知名企业到大东区投资，如美国通用公司、德国宝马汽车公司、日本三菱自动车工业株氏会社、沃尔玛（中国）有限公司、美国泰克公司、日本丰田通商株氏会社、三洋电机有限公司和美国吉列公司等。
大东区是沈阳民族工业的发祥地，经过近百年的发展，目前已形成以汽车、飞机发动机、机械设备制造、生物制药、仪器仪表和其它机械制造业为主的庞大的产业群。是全国最大的机械加工区，其境内所产轻型客车占全国的市场份额达50%以上，航空发动机占全国60%以上。
大东区内可置换的与需重新盘活的工业用地有500万平方米，水、煤、气、电等工业用基础设施完备，有相当丰富的工业资源尚未得到充分利用。区内有一所大学、两个国家级研究所以及众多的工业企业，培养和储备了大量专业技术人才，以及一支专业素质高、技术精湛的产业工人大军。
五、 人才资源
大东区的劳动力资源极为丰富，劳动人口近40万，40多所技工学校、职业学校，每年可培养出可塑性极强的技术工人7000多名。拥有各类专业技术人员11万余人，是沈阳市科技人员最为集中、科技力量最强的园区之一。
2.2 项目建设地点
2.2.1 项目位置
东：现状住宅住宅
南：航空西路
西：傍江街
北：107中学

图2.2 项目在沈阳市大东区的位置
2.2.2 周边配套设施提高了项目的宜居性
项目地块所在地是城市中心次热点区域，西临城市内环线交通干道的滂江街；北为沈阳市重点初中107中学，正东为辽宁省重点中学沈阳市第一高级中学；周边有以“东逸花园”为首的等高档生活社区；有“世纪联华”大型商业卖场；西南面为距今已有百年历史万泉公园，园区内水面面积为5.23公顷，草木繁茂。项目所在地的自然环境优越，区位条件良好。
2.2.3 即将建成地铁提高了项目未来的发展潜力
项目地块处于滂江街地铁站南延长线上。目前，滂江街附近的星级宾馆只有黎明国际酒店，没有大型的商场和高档的写字楼，而这里将是地铁一号线和地铁五号线的交会点，未来的商流、客流量将十分巨大。大东区将据此打造发展潜力巨大的滂江商贸圈。
2.2.4 沈阳发展规划为项目提供了无限想象空间
根据沈阳市的发展战略，中捷友谊厂、矿山机械厂都将搬迁至铁西新区，这就为地铁滂江站提供了广阔的空间。在这里将建设义乌沈阳国际商贸城，义乌的商品将通过这里发往东北各地。同时，在地铁滂江站东部将建设大型的商场、星级的宾馆、高档的写字楼，使这里成为新兴的商贸圈。
2.3 建设条件
2.3.1 自然环境条件
大东区位于沈阳城区的东部和东北部，位于北温带亚洲季风气候区的北缘，属受季风影响的温带半湿润气候。据气象台1951年至1981年累计，市内区最高气温年平均为13.7℃，最低气温年平均为2.6℃，全年平均温度为7.9℃，极端最高气温32.3℃，极端最低气温-24.7℃。市内平均降雨量为734.5毫米，最多年降水量1055.3毫米（1953年），最少为445毫米（1965年），降水日数历年平均是92.8天，日最大降水量为215.4毫米（1973年8月21日），霜期开始于10上旬，结束于4月下旬，平均210天左右，无霜期平均155天左右。其气候主要特征是：冬寒时间较长少雪，夏季时间较短多雨，春秋两季气温变化迅速，春季多风，秋季晴朗。
2.3.2 工程地质条件
该地段地处浑河南岸二级冲积阶地，地表为较厚的第四系冲积物，地基承载力较大，地下岩性稳定，季节性冻土层厚度约1.2米。经工程地质初勘，地基岩土稳定、无不良地质现象，适宜工程建设，一般多层、高层均可采用常规桩基础。
2.3.3 基础设施条件
随着道路的改建、扩建和相新建，给水、雨水、污水、电力、电讯、集中供热、燃气等多条市政管线已相继敷设至本地段，完全能够满足本项目的建设开发、使用经营需要。
表2.1 项目建设具备的基础设施条件表
类别
容量或管线直径
备注
电力
10KV和6KV线路
可满足二级符合要求
集中供热
惠天热电Φ1500供热管线

给水
沈阳东部水厂（李巴彦）供水管线

电讯
可满足1000中继线

燃气
Φ800的中压和Φ500低压管线

3 市场分析
3.1 沈阳市写字楼市场现状
随着国家振兴东北的提出，沈阳是东北地区的经济中心，物资集散地，作为对城市的经济活动反应敏感的写字楼市场近几年有了很大的发展。沈阳市建设现代化的区域中心城市的定位是写字楼市场发展的源动力。
3.1.1 写字楼市场的区域特征逐渐形成
沈阳市写字楼现有项目主要分布于三个区域，即太原街商业区周边，如总统大厦、中兴商业大厦写字楼、海润国际等；市府广场周边，如方圆大厦、新基火炬大厦、沈阳财富中心等；三好街及青年大街一带，如华新国际大厦、中润国际、百脑汇资讯广场等。也开始出现了一些至少在价格上可以与发达城市高档写字楼物业相当的项目，如总统大厦，方圆大厦等几个沈阳市场上的顶级写字楼，年租金己达到1400元/平米。而目前深圳市的顶级写字楼华润中心平均租金换算为年租金1560元/平方米，地标性建筑地王大厦年租金也仅为1200元。当然与全国几个发达城市比较的，沈阳的写字楼市场还是不成熟的。从同价位产品质量比较，所形成的商务中心成熟度的比较，写字楼物业管理水平的差异等方面，都可以看出与北京，上海，深圳，广州等城市的相对成熟的写字楼市场的较大差距。当然这是与沈阳的经济发展水平相对应的。
3.1.2 写字楼开发商大多都是本土企业
但是与北京上海等发达城市中统一业权写字楼物业大多由外资或港资发展商持有不同的是，沈阳市的统一业权写字楼物业基本由本地开发商持有，甚至沈阳市写字楼市场上，包括高档写字楼市场，外地发展商较少，除上海昌鑫开发的昌鑫置地广场，新加坡华新国际开发的华新国际大厦等少数的几个外地资本项目，其余均为本地发展商开发，而本地的发展商大多具有工业企业集团资本背景。当然这与沈阳作为老工业基地的历史经济背景联系在一起。但是沈阳作为东北的经济中心，物资流通中心，以及国家振兴东北的大背景，沈阳写字楼市场有很大的发展潜力。随着对沈阳经济的进一步发展，作为东北商贸中心功能的进一步完善，会有越来越多的外地资本进入沈阳的写字楼市场，越来越多的更加专业的商业地产发展商会进入沈阳市场，提供更多高素质的统一产权的写字楼物业。
3.1.3 沈阳市写字楼市场上的产品质量差异较大。
从写字楼物业内部的配套水平，装修水平到物业管理水平都存在较大差异，当然相应的价格也存在较大的差异。这样的差异由于沈阳写字楼市场上存在的写字楼既有近几年上市的引进较先进设计理念的高档次写字楼物业，也有大量的由非专业的房地产开发商开发销售或出租的质量参差不齐的中低档次的写字楼。相应的写字楼物业管理市场水平与发