2024年爱立信移动报告（英）.pdf

2024Ericsson Mobility Report2Ericsson Mobility Report|June 20242Letter from the publisherThere is an exciting future ahead of us,as leading communications service providers are now preparing to build high-performing,open and programmable 5G networks.Today,the main connectivity offerings for consumers and enterprises are based on a best-effort performance model.High-performing,open,programmable networks that utilize 5G standalone(SA)architecture provide new opportunities for service innovation and open up possibilities for performance-based business models.5G is an innovation platform for driving digital transformations of businesses and society.In this edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report,we take a closer look at a leading service providers journey toward realizing a programmable network,and a new era of performance-based business models built upon differentiated connectivity and an open network infrastructure.5G:Empowering digital transformation through innovationOn the forecast side,we have adjusted the mobile network data traffic numbers downward compared to our previous report.This is mainly due to lower numbers being reported by regulators and service providers in populous markets for the second half of 2023.However,the predicted yearly mobile data traffic growth rate between 2023 and 2029 remains similar,although from a lower starting point.The deployment of 5G is still ongoing,and is far from complete.We continue to see a robust uptake of 5G subscriptions worldwide,anticipating the addition of nearly 600 million new 5G subscriptions in 2024.To fully realize the potential of 5G,there is a need for continued deployments of 5G SA and additional densification of mid-band sites.To date,around 50 service providers have deployed or launched 5G SA in public networks,and the global expansion of 5G mid-band coverage is primarily propelled by extensive deployments in India and North America.However,only around 25 percent of all sites globally,outside of mainland China,have been upgraded to 5G mid-band.In this edition,we also explore the significance of 5G mid-band for user experience,finding that smartphone users connected to 5G mid-band benefit from faster time-to-content and an overall enhanced user experience when accessing the internet and streaming video content.This edition also investigates how early access to new 5G network functionalities within the framework of a 5G innovation program is allowing enterprises to develop and test new connectivity solutions through cross-industry collaboration.I trust that you will find this report engaging,and that it offers valuable insights as we navigate the evolving landscape of 5G.Fredrik JejdlingExecutive Vice President andHead of Business Area NetworksContentsExecutive Editor:Peter JonssonProject Sponsor:Patrik CerwallProject Manager:Anette LundvallForecasts:David von KochWriter Editor:Steven Davis Co-writers:Haseeb Akhtar,Tina Barnes,Ruchika Batra,Greger Blennerud,Lisa Englund,Eric Ericsson,Hans Hammar,Ahmad Husseini,Christian Jansson,Sobaan Kazi,Aziz Koleilat,Per Lindberg,Peter Linder,Reiner Ludwig,Marcelo Malizia,Mike Murphy,Ravi Shekhar PandeyAstaZero Contributors:Jesper Blidkvist,Timo Kero,Fredrik kesonTelia Contributors:Ivan Bretan,Jenny GustavssonAirtel Contributor:Sawan GuptaAT&T Contributors:Dean Bragg,Robert SoniRogers Contributor:Anand ArulananthamForecastsArticles04 5G mobile subscriptions to reach close to 5.6 billion in 202905 Smartphone market recovering in 202406 5G subscription uptake rising in every region08 North America:A closer look10 Mobile network data traffic11 5G set to account for around 75 percent of mobile data traffic in 202913 Differentiated connectivity to drive growth and service innovation14 Time-to-content:Great user experience on 5G mid-band16 Leveraging 5G capabilities for innovative mobile service packages18 Speed-based FWA now offered by 40 percent of FWA service providers20 5G mid-band population coverage reaches 35 percent22 How the NorthStar 5G network inspires innovation26 Enhancing customer experiences with 5G30 Building a high-performing programmable network33 Taking 5G connectivity underground36 Methodology37 Glossary38 Global and regional key figuresForecastsSpeed-based tariffs are now offered by 40 percent of FWA service providers.5G mobile subscriptions are set to reach nearly 5.6 billion in 2029.In North America,5G is set to make up 90 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2029.Measurements from a leading service provider show that 97 percent of all user activities on 5G mid-band achieved a time-to-content of less than 1.5 seconds.5G is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription before the end of the forecast period.Although 5G population coverage is growing,5G mid-band is only deployed in around 25 percent of all sites globally outside of mainland China.The 5G mid-band spectrum provides a sweet spot between both coverage and capacity,while improving user experience,as shown by measurements from a leading service provider.As 5G matures,the focus for many service providers is expected to shift toward developing differentiated connectivity offerings.4Ericsson Mobility Report|June 20245G mobile subscriptions to reach close to 5.6 billion in 2029During the first quarter of 2024,160 million 5G subscriptions were added to exceed a total of 1.7 billion.5G is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2028.Global 5G subscriptions1 are forecast to reach close to 5.6 billion in 2029,making up 60 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time.It is projected that North America will still have the highest 5G penetration in 2029 at 90 percent,followed closely by the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC)at 89 percent and Western Europe at 86 percent.Stronger outlook in Sub-Saharan Africa than expected5G subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2029 are anticipated to exceed 320 million,accounting for 28 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time.This has been adjusted upward compared to our previous report,in line with a more positive outlook for the region,supported by spectrum releases in low-and mid-bands and more affordable devices.At the end of 2023,North America had the highest 5G subscription penetration globally at 59 percent.In North East Asia,penetration reached 41 percent,followed by the GCC countries at 34 percent and Western Europe at 26 percent.5G subscriptions increased by 160 million during the first quarter of 2024,to total 1.7 billion.Subscriptions for 4G now total 5.2 billion,falling by 26 million during Q1 2024.4G subscriptions are projected to continue declining to around 3 billion by the end of 2029,as subscribers continue to migrate to 5G.During the first quarter,3G subscriptions declined by 37 million,while 2G subscriptions dropped by 41 million.2G and 3G network sunsetting continues around the world.The timeline for this transition varies based on the country and service provider,but the phase-out of 3G networks is anticipated to happen more quickly than for 2G in the coming years.For example,an overwhelming majority of service providers in Europe are currently shutting down 3G networks to refarm spectrum for use with 4G and 5G,while maintaining 2G for legacy IoT services.Around 300 service providers have now launched commercial 5G services,and around 50 have deployed or launched 5G standalone(SA).21 A 5G subscription is counted as such when associated with a device that supports New Radio(NR),as specified in 3GPP Release 15,and is connected to a 5G-enabled network.2 GSA and Ericsson(May 2024).Figure 1:Mobile subscriptions by technology(billion)5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 5.6 billion by the end of 2029.5.6bn1073962845120182021202420272019202220252028202020232026202905GLTE/TD-LTEWCDMA/HSPAGSMTD-SCDMACDMA9.3billion8.5billion5Ericsson Mobility Report|June 2024Smartphone shipment growth is back after nearly a three-year decline,with a year-on-year increase of 6 percent in the first quarter of 2024.1 In the high-end device segment,AI-powered smartphones are becoming increasingly available,while the mid-and lower-tier segments are refreshing their offerings and experiencing double-digit growth.Meanwhile,the replacement cycle of smartphones has been prolonged in recent quarters,as consumers hold on to their devices for longer due to growing financial and environmental concerns.However,AI and new chips for on-device AI might move more users to upgrade their devices.Multiple new XR-device models are expected to come to market during 2024,but mass-market uptake is still limited.Devices are prepared for standalone 5G non-standalone(NSA)networks are dominating the market,but there are compelling reasons to move to a 5G standalone(SA)architecture.It offers greater flexibility,scalability and support for new services and applications,enabling service providers to dedicate specific network slices for different use cases,as well as offering premium support for time-critical communications.The device domain supports the NSA to SA transition:Many devices already provide support for 5G network slicing and,starting from Android 13 and iOS 17,developers can include functions and capabilities in their apps to align with certain network characteristics(such as lower latency or higher bandwidth)offered by service provider-provisioned network slices.Reduced capability(RedCap)is gaining momentum,and there are now more than five modem vendors with support for this.Module support is seen from multiple players and device offerings are emerging.During 2024,the RedCap market is expected to include routers,cameras and even connected laptops,Smartphone market recovering in 2024Chipsets with generative AI(GenAI)capabilities,as well as phones that can process AI without connecting to a server(on-device AI)have entered the market.These devices could shape new user behavior and change how apps and services are consumed in the future.Proprietary5G SA5G NSA/SA5G NSA4G/EPCFWA3GPP NTNProprietary NTNCarrier aggregationTime-criticalcommunicationsNetworkslicingRedCap2-3CC FDD,TDD2CC FDD+TDD2CC FDD,2CC TDDURSPAndroid,iOS 17,Windows 113TX(1L FDD,2LTDD)NB-NTN(IoT modem)NR-NTNEmergency messaging DL L4S(Ni-QoS)RedCap2CC FDD,TDDFigure 2:5G technology area readiness on deviceNote:The graph illustrates the availability of network functionality,as well as support in devices.202620252024 H22024 H1Legacywhile RedCap-based wristband wearables and the first industrial devices are expected to come to market from 2025.Low-cost devices will play a big role in the continued 5G smartphone market uptake,as the low price point will facilitate 4G device replacement in price-sensitive market segments.There are industry initiatives to provide SA-only devices,with LTE fallback but no NSA support,addressing the sub-100 USD smartphone market segment.Uplink is in focusIn the downlink,the premium devices will support 6 carrier aggregation in low-and mid-bands in the coming one to two years,exceeding 3.5 Gbps speeds.Uplink performance has not evolved as much as downlink in 5G.In 2024,FDD and TDD carrier aggregation in the uplink on premium devices is emerging.In the future,FDD-FDD and TDD-TDD spectrum will also be aggregated in the uplink.For the FWA domain,using more than two uplink antennas is also a way to address a better uplink performance,and there is market interest in the premium FWA segment for this solution.NB-NTN on smartphonesNarrowband non-terrestrial networks(NB-NTN)enable many new use cases,including asset tracking,remote monitoring and emergency services.Introduced in the first devices in 2023,the device ecosystem is striving toward integrating NB-NTN into systems-on-a-chip(SOCs),with the first chipsets in 2024,and will initially support text messaging and low-data-rate services.5G NR-NTN in devices is expected to be supported from 2025.Using the 3GPP version of satellite calling can unite the industry,focusing development to a single standard that benefits all smartphone users needing to communicate in areas without cellular coverage.ChipsetEnterpriseand consumerNB-NTN(integrated in smartphone SOC)VoiceDLUL4CC FDD+TDD5CC FDD+TDD6CC FDD+TDDUL configured grantDL L4S(Ni-QoS)1 Counterpoint(May 2024).6Ericsson Mobility Report|June 20245G subscription uptake rising in every regionSub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africas economic outlook remains positive,with growth between 3 and 5 percent over the next 5 years.2 The telecommunications sector maintains an upward trajectory,driven by a young population and rising demand for mobile data and advanced services.Mobile subscription growth is forecast at 4 percent annually between 2023 and 2029.Key drivers include the younger demographic entering the workforce,alongside increasing smartphone affordability.Government initiatives promoting internet access will further fuel this growth.Driven by more available spectrum and affordable 5G devices,5G subscriptions are forecast to have strong growth,reaching 320 million by 2029.A key driver will be service providers rolling out networks in urban areas,targeting higher-spending consumers.Middle East and North Africa The regions telecom industry continues to demonstrate stability and growth despite economic challenges in several countries.Overall subscriptions are projected to rise 2 percent annually between 2023 and 2029.Smartphone subscriptions are forecast to have a similar growth,reaching 750 million in 2029.5G will experience the highest subscription growth rising at 51 percent annually in the period with increasing network coverage and availability of affordable 5G-capable smartphones.In 2029,5G is expected to account for the largest share of total subscriptions at 50 percent,while 4G declines to make up 46 percent.Service providers continue to diversify their offerings,owing to the high mobile penetration,with services such as e-health and mobile financial services.3G subscriptions are projected to decline to 2 percent in 2029,while 2G will decline to near zero.By 2029,5G is expected to hold the second-largest share of subscriptions at 28 percent.4G is expected to grow steadily at 5 percent annually,adding the largest number of subscriptions and holding the largest subscription share at 38 percent in 2029.3G subscriptions are declining as 4G becomes more available and is expected to make up 8 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2029.2G subscriptions are also expected to decline but will maintain a significant share of 27 percent.Beyond subscriptions,service providers are expanding offerings to include fintech services such as mobile money transactions,including banking which caters to the high mobile penetration and unbanked population.Smartphones will rise from 460 million in 2023 to 790 million in 2029,driving more data usage.Uptake is strong in North America,with the region reaching a 5G subscription penetration of 59 percent by the end of 2023.At the same time,5G penetration in India reached 10 per