在实现净零排放的路径中驾驭前所未有的电力需求增长(英).pdf
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1、Managing Unprecedented Electricity Demand Growth on the Path to Net Zero EmissionsAPRIL 2024|Workshop Report 1 EFI FOUNDATION Project Team Ernest J.Moniz CEO and President Alex Kizer Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Madeline Gottlieb Schomburg Director of Research Michael Downey Dep
2、uty Chief Operating Officer Tatiana Bruce da Silva Project Manager and Contributing Senior Analyst Beth Dowdy Research Fellow Grace McInerney Research Intern Additional Contributors Joseph S.Hezir Executive Vice President,Treasurer Melanie A.Kenderdine Executive Vice President,Corporate Secretary Co
3、mmunications Team David Ellis Senior Vice President of Policy Strategy&Outreach Alicia Moulton Deputy Director of Communications Ben Cunningham Graphic Designer,MG Strategy+Design Copy Editing Danielle Narcisse M.Harris&Co.Jane Hirt M.Harris&Co.Workshop Participants Arizona Public Service(APS)Arnold
4、&Porter Clean Air Task Force(CATF)Duke Energy Energy+Environmental Economics(E3)EFI Foundation Entergy Electric Power Research Institute(EPRI)GE Vernova Grid Strategies Microsoft National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners(NARUC)Novi Strategies New York Independent System Operator(NYISO
5、)PJM Interconnection Southwest Power Pool(SPP)STACK Americas Wilkinson Barker Knauer,LLP 2 EFI FOUNDATION Report Sponsors The EFI Foundation would like to thank Arizona Public Service(APS),Duke Energy,and GE Vernova for sponsoring this work.All content in this report is independent of their sponsors
6、hip.Suggested Citation:EFI Foundation.“Managing Unprecedented Electricity Demand Growth on the Path to Net Zero Emissions.”April 2024.2024 EFI Foundation This publication is available as a PDF on the EFI Foundation website under a Creative Commons license that allows copying and distributing the pub
7、lication,only in its entirety,as long as it is attributed to the EFI Foundation and used for noncommercial educational or public policy purposes.www.efifoundation.org _ The EFI Foundation advances technically grounded solutions to climate change through evidence-based analysis,thought leadership,and
8、 coalition-building.Under the leadership of Ernest J.Moniz,the 13th U.S.Secretary of Energy,the EFI Foundation conducts rigorous research to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy through innovation in technology,policy,and business models.EFI Foundation maintains editorial independence f
9、rom its public and private sponsors.Cover photo:iStock 2024 EFI Foundation 3 EFI FOUNDATION Table of Table of ContentsContents Summary.4 Introduction.5 1.Recent projections are likely underestimating actual load growth.8 2.Region-specific approaches are necessary for managing near-term load growth.1
10、0 3.Stakeholder alignment is critical to meet the dual challenges of load growth:manage reliability and plan for deep decarbonization.15 4.Stakeholders are seeking flexibility to manage load growth uncertainty.16 Conclusion and next steps.19 References.21 ListList of of FiguresFigures Figure 1.North
11、 American Electric Reliability Corporations 10-year load growth forecast trend.6 Figure 2.Regional growth drivers.8 Figure 3.PJMs projected load growth.10 Figure 4.U.S.annual electricity generation by source.12 Figure 5.Estimated data center growth by grid region.13 4 EFI FOUNDATION As the United St
12、ates works to address the climate crisis,the urgent push for decarbonization stands in stark contrast to the immediate challenges of managing near-term electricity load growth.Recent incentives to re-shore clean energy supply chains in legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),the Infrastruc
13、ture Investment and Jobs Act(IIJA)and the CHIPS and Science Act have prompted some of these new load demands,many of which will require firm power 24/7.Data center proliferation is also a major driver of near-term load growth,and the rapid expansion of AI is exacerbating their load requirements.In t
14、he mid-to long-term,increased electrification of end uses,such as vehicles,heat pumps and some industrial processes,compound the issue.To capitalize on these economic development opportunities,states and regions are seeking creative solutions to deal with load growth such as building out grid infras
15、tructure and investing in projects that accelerate clean energy innovations.The load growth dilemma is intensifying the strain on existing infrastructure,and addressing it requires inventive solutions and strategic foresight.Many utilities have dramatically increased their projected electricity load
16、 growth and have proposed meeting this in the near term by increasing their use of existing and/or new thermal plants.The tension between economic development and the associated increased electricity load and declared utility decarbonization targets in the 2030-time frame has stimulated important di
17、scussions.On Feb.12,2024,the EFI Foundation hosted a group of nearly 30 senior-level experts from utilities,system operators,industry,and nongovernmental organizations,as well as former policymakers and regulators,consumers,and equipment(e.g.,turbine)manufacturers to discuss the implications of rece
18、nt public announcements of unprecedented load growth across many regions of the country.1,2,3 Several challenges were identified at the workshop that will need to be addressed in an era of dramatic acceleration in load growth.They are as follows.1.Load growth is not uniform across the country and re
19、gionality impacts the tools available to address it.Regional differences in resource availability,including the appropriate geology for carbon storage and access to water resources,as well as the availability of generation resources like wind and solar means that strategies for addressing load growt
20、h must be tailored to regional resources,infrastructure needs,and limitations,particularly in the near term.2.Load growth is likely to further accelerate.Data centers dominate the headlines today,but new manufacturing combined with electrification of transportation,space heating,and industry will pl
21、ace even greater strain on the grid in the coming decades.3.Ensuring reliability and resiliency is paramount.While grid-enhancing technologies and storage solutions may lessen near-term load growth challenges,new gas-fired generation capacity will come online to provide firm power.As a result,power
22、sector emissions may rise in the short term,while SummarySummary 5 EFI FOUNDATION generation and transmission with longer lead times will address emissions in the longer term.4.Policies need to be harmonized.New proposals seek to limit power sector emissions in the wake of recent policies promoting
23、electrification.These proposals may constrain the sectors ability to meet increasing load demands.If the U.S.continues to encourage electrification,complementary policies will be needed to expedite grid modernization.5.Very large,unexpected loads like gigawatt-sized data center campuses could requir
24、e utilities to rethink their five-year plans.Longer term,grid managers may also need to create the frameworks and the associated regulatory structures to enable more proactive infrastructure buildout.6.Though the threat of litigation has long been considered a serious impediment to building out new
25、infrastructure,it has increased in prevalence and now seems to pervade the entire political spectrum.The economywide transition to net zero emissions will rely heavily on successfully decarbonizing the power sector.For years,relatively flat power demand provided grid operators a clear and certain vi
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