2024年下半年市场状况（英）.pdf

H2 202423Letter From the Authors4Investor Perspectives6Macro11VC Fundraising17VC Investment 24VC-Backed Tech Financial Trends30ExitsSTATE OF THE MARKETS H2 2024Recovery should hasten in the back half of the year,with anticipated cuts in interest rates and increased political clarity after the US election season.Those changes may grease the flywheel of innovation helping to support IPO markets,return capital to distribution-starved LPs,and spur fundraisings and investment.”The innovation economy is looking for some much-needed R&R recovery and recalibration.Theres been evidence of both in 2024.First,on the recovery front,although US venture investment is half what it was in 2021,it is still higher than 26 of the last 30 years.1The broader innovation economy is recovering,but at different rates and timelines.Thats where recalibration comes in.While many companies are finding it harder to raise,the best are making it happen led by those capitalizing on the boom in AI.Yet some are being disproportionately affected,such as the seed-stage startups being hit by the Series A crunch or the record-breaking stable of unicorns waiting for exit markets to thaw and late-stage capital to return.Excluding AI,growth remains a challenge to many companies.CFOs continue to scrutinize spending.At the same time,venture capital(VC)-backed companies prioritized margins over growth,given a desire to extend runway and have a path to profitability.For many,the economics of burning cash to chase growth when customer acquisition costs(CAC)are higher doesnt make sense.The end of zero-interest-rate policy(ZIRP),the tougher fundraising environment,and a disjointed economy have exposed companies that were buying growth but lacked strong underlying businesses.Now,more companies are shrinking while being cash flow negative.These zombie companies have clung to runway through small cash injections and cutting to the bone,but many are reaching the end of their runway.Some companies will fail but the broader innovation economy will be stronger for it.Recovery should hasten in the back half of the year,with anticipated cuts in interest rates and increased political clarity after the US election season.Those changes may grease the flywheel of innovation helping to support initial public offering(IPO)markets,return capital to distribution-starved limited partners(LPs),and spur fundraisings and investment.While our outlook remains measured,innovation remains unstoppable.Most investors are laser focused on the promise of generative AI comparing the present moment to the dawn of the industrial revolution,the invention of the internet,or the rise of mobile all seismic shifts.This conviction punctuates our long-term thesis:The innovation economy will continue to capture a larger share of the broader economy and serve as the growth engine for decades to come.3Marc CadieuxPresidentSVB Commercial BankSilicon Valley BankMark GallagherHead of Investor CoverageSVB Commercial BankSilicon Valley BankNotes:1)Annualized run rate of investment for H1 2024 adjusted for inflation.STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 2024“We are at the beginning of one of the largest technical revolutions in history.We have not figured out how to fully take advantage of it yet,but this will change the way we work and live.Similar to the industrial revolution.It will fundamentally change society.”Enrique SalemPartner“The seed stage is a loss leader for big funds.Small checks theoretically help the large funds find the best investment opportunities,but rarely does this work out,and its something of a fake flight to safety.However,for founders,taking money from large funds at seed is highly risky.Entrepreneurs who take money from big funds need to know that very few of those funds will back their Series A.Seed checks are options from the VCs POV and a potential death sentence for startups,because it makes the bar to getting a Series A so much higher.”Eric PaleyGeneral Partner“When IPOs do return,you might see 30-35 IPOs maybe 20 take-privates a year.There was an expectation in 2021 that all the unicorns will go public.But unfortunately,thats not true.A lot of that was driven by the ZIRP environment.Maybe 50 unicorns are growing 30%and will IPO.Maybe another 100 are ready to declare a shutdown.Most of the companies are good companies but just arent valued where they were.Its unlikely they will clear the last valuation.”Dharmesh Thakker General Partner“Growth is more valuable than profitability.Full stop.The issue is that companies cant grow right now.Buyers are more difficult to unlock;you cant efficiently generate new customers,so companies are choosing to generate cashflow because they dont have a choice.They dont have a place to invest.Its a pragmatic solution.What we hope is that we can get to a place where companies can reinvest into sales or marketing,but were not there yet.Its wasted.Youre pissing away your money to do that right now.”Byron Deeter Partner“Generally,some companies and/or shareholders are hesitant to accept down rounds and are instead accepting highly structured securities.It could be that firms are reluctant to show lower marks to LPs,that management or sponsors dont want to suffer what they believe is avoidable dilution,or fear that a down round will forever taint an otherwise healthy business.Regardless,the healthy thing to do might be to just accept a down round with a standard,clean security that assures greater go-forward alignment between investors and management.Id hypothesize that over the long term that would increase liquidity in the market and result in better outcomes for a greater number of stakeholders.”Matt NugentPartner“Companies are still raising large amounts of capital,but there is definitely a cohort of these companies that is intentionally experimenting with lean teams,keeping burn low and executing rapidly.Were seeing high growth companies with very disciplined burn rates for their scale.With AI,I think well see large,valuable companies with much smaller teams(and more ARR/employee)than in previous funding cycles,resulting from a combination of using AI internally and exceptional product market fit leading to strong top-line growth.”Tiffany Luck PartnerSTATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20244Source:SVB Interviews.STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20245Marc CadieuxPresidentSVB Commercial BankSilicon Valley BMark Gallagher Head of Investor CoverageSVB Commercial BankSilicon Valley BMarc Cadieux is president of Silicon Valley Banks commercial banking business where he focuses on the needs of innovation companies at all stages of development,including the investors who back them.Mark Gallagher is the co-head of the investor coverage practice.He and his team provide tailored services,industry insights and strategic guidance to top investors in the innovation economy.Eli OftedalSenior Analytics ResearcherSVB Market InsightsSilicon Valley BJosh PherigoSenior Analytics ResearcherSVB Market InsightsSilicon Valley BAndrew Pardo,CFASenior Analytics ResearcherSVB Market InsightsSilicon Valley BThe SVB Market Insights team leverages SVBs proprietary data,deep bench of subject matter experts,and relationships with world-class investors and founders to develop a holistic view of the innovation economy for our State of the Markets report.We partnered with lead authors Marc Cadieux and Mark Gallagher,who bring over a half century of industry knowledge and experience working with many of the top companies and investors across the innovation economy.Together,were proud to present this 28th edition of SVBs State of the Markets report.To learn more about the lead authors see page 34.6STATE OF THE MARKETS H2 2024155-35%-35%1,500600$50B$35BSTATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20247US VC Fundraising1Notes:1)For funds headquartered in the US by date closed.2)Limited partner(LP).3)Tech defined broadly as VC excluding healthcare.4)Late-stage defined by PitchBook Data,Inc.as Series C+or a round that occurs more than five years after a company is founded.5)Data as of 7/30/2024 and based on S&P 500 price performance.6)Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange(NYSE).Source:Preqin,PitchBook Data,Inc.,S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis.2023 OutlookFull-Year Forecast From H1 ReportH1 24 ActualFull-Year Forecast From H1 ReportH1 24 ActualFull-Year Forecast From H1 ReportH1 24 ActualFull-Year Forecast From H1 ReportH1 24 ActualTracking Our 2024 OutlookAfter a sleepy 2023,VC fundraising has materially picked up with$1B+funds accounting for$14B.This growth is undergirded by the booming AI investment cycle.Of funds closed in H1 2024,35%claim AI as a focus area.While on track to overshoot our H1 outlook,the fundamental dynamics constraining VC fundraising are likely to remain in place through year-end:high interest rates and limited distributions to LPs.2US Series A Tech Deals3Tracking Our 2024 OutlookAt the start of the year,we expected a meager uptick in Series A,but the reality has been a prolonged slowdown.While seed companies have continued to raise,most have yet to graduate to Series A,creating a bottleneck.For companies raising a Series A,the quality is improving.Both median Series A tech valuations and deal sizes grew 17%and 20%year-over-year(YoY)respectively.US Late-Stage Tech Valuations Relative to Peak(Q4 2021)3,4Tracking Our 2024 OutlookLate-stage tech valuations have recovered quickly hitting our full-year expectation for recovery in H1.Three drivers have contributed to the growth.First,the best companies avoided raising priced rounds since 2021,but are coming back to market.Second,late-stage AI account for half of late-stage investment and the median AI company is valued 68%above non-AI companies.Third,public markets have continued to ride a wave of growth,with the S&P 500 up 19%YoY.5 US VC-Backed Tech IPOs on Major US Exchanges6Tracking Our 2024 OutlookJust five US VC-backed Tech IPOs have dared to venture into public markets.Performance has been mixed with only one(Reddit)trading up since its IPO.The lackluster performance of 2024 IPOs,continued high interest rates,and an impending election are likely to put a damper on the back half of the year,though a few may exit between November and December.5.8%3.9%1954195919641969197419791984198919941999200420092014201920243.6%3.3%It has been more than a year since the Federal Reserve last changed interest rates,and it appears more likely that a drop could be around the corner.The Feds dual mandates to keep inflation in check and the labor market humming are within reach.Though inflation is still above the Feds 2%target,both metrics are now well within(or below)the historic normal range(going back to the 50s).In a promising sign of potential cuts to come,the EU and Canada have recently reduced rates after holding unchanged since mid-2023.Analysts expect the US to follow suit.FOMC3 projections suggest the federal funds rate could drop below 5%by years end and fall to 4.1%within 18 months.At the Fed meeting in July,Chair Jerome Powell noted signs that the employment market is cooling and inflation has“eased notably.”The language signals that a rate cut could come in September if the current trends continue.Lower rates will favor VC investment and fundraising,as dollars have been reallocated since the end of ZIRP.However,its unlikely well get back to that period again any time soon.Despite weakening in certain sectors,the overall economy is still performing well.The employer cost index,a measure of compensation and benefits over time,shows that overall wages are back to rising faster than costs.A favorable trend,assuming it doesnt convince the Fed to leave rates higher for longer.8Notes:1)Federal Open Market Committee.2)Historic average since 1954.Normal range is one standard deviation from the historic average.3)Diffusion index is a weighted average of the top six central banks by currency volumes.Source:St.Louis Federal Reserve and SVB analysis.Historic AverageNormal RangeInflationUnemploymentInflation is back in check,while US remains near full-employment.5.3%4.9%4.5%4.1%3.6%3.1%Jul 2024Jan 2025Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026Jan 2027-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%200820102012201420162018202020222024ECI Premium/Discount to CPIWages and benefits are rising faster than inflation.Inflation is rising faster than wages and benefits.JapanUKChinaCanadaEUUS-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%JanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMay20202021202220232024Diffusion Index of Global Rates Lower RangeUpper RangeSTATE OF THE MARKETS H2 202431%34%35%33%36%36%32%30%28%25%24%24%21%20%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q22021202220232024Software metrics dont look as untouchable as they once did.For most software companies,the era of single-digit churn rate is over.Earnings call mentions of“cost-reductions”and similar terms are hovering nearly as high as they were during the pandemic.With corporate cuts top of mind,software budgets are in the crosshairs along with layoffs.Dharmesh Thakker,general partner at Battery Ventures,said IT buyers are rationalizing spending on some technologies this year particularly as companies push for profitability but new corporate spending on generative AI more than makes up for cuts in other areas.“Theyre reserving cash for that,”Thakker noted,adding that a recent Battery IT-spending survey saw enthusiastic spending signals from many buyers.In early 2022,software developers were the most sought after among all job groups reported in federal data.Two years later,they are the least sought after,with software job postings now as rare as they were in the initial months after the pandemic.In a cohort of the top 50 largest publicly traded software companies by market cap,the median YoY revenue growth has fallen consistently for the last two and a half years,hitting 20%in Q2 2024.Valuation multiples for this group have tumbled 58%from their market peak and are now trading at eight times their estimated next 12 months revenue.Until software spend bounces back,SaaS startups may stay in freeze mode,conserving cash rather than aiming for growth as CAC costs remain high.9Notes:1)Search terms included“cost-cutting”,“reduce spending,”“cut expenses,”“cut spending,”“reduce expenses,”“reduce overhead,”and “lower overhead.”2)Total Enterprise Value/Next Twelve Months Revenue.Source:S&P Capital IQ,CB Insights,St.Louis Federal Reserve and SVB analysis.632316905010015020025020202021202220232024Software DevelopersBanking/FinanceManufacturingAll JobsRetailSoftware job postings are down 70%from their peak in early 2022,hovering near the pandemic low point.19.2x7.7x0 x5x10 x15x20 x25x30 xQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22021202220232024Middle 50%MedianSTATE OF THE MARKETS H2 20240100200300Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1201920202021202220232024Corporate mentions of cost-cutting have doubled since Q2 2022.Covid-190%20%40%60%80%100%199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024Web1.0:Working at CERN,computer scientist Tim Berners-Lee launched the World Wide Web in 1991.Optical networks spread access and improved downlo