出口和劳动力市场结果：供应链视角——来自越南的证据（英）.pdf

Policy Research Working Paper10868Export and Labor Market OutcomesA Supply Chain PerspectiveEvidence from Viet NamDeeksha KokasGladys Lopez-AcevedoHa VuPoverty and Equity Global Practice August 2024 Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues.An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,even if the presentations are less than fully polished.The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors.They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations,or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10868Are changes in the labor market in response to changes in exports contained specifically within exporting industries,or do they disperse throughout the economy through supply chain linkages?This paper studies the case of Viet Nam,an example of a successful export-led growth economy,to examine this question.Combining UN COMTRADE data,input-output tables from the Global Trade Analysis Project,and 2010 to 2019 annual labor force survey data for Viet Nam,the study constructed a measure of each workers total exposure to export shocks.The measure accounts for changes due to both direct export exposure(increase in exports in the workers own industry)and indirect exposure(from increased exports in other industries that use inputs from the workers industry).Estimates of the repercussions from increasing exports on labor market outcomes show that both direct and indirect exposure significantly increase workers wages and employment,while reducing inactiv-ity and inequality.Wage premiums for attending college decrease,and the gender wage gap narrows.Wages increase more for the lowest-income workers and employment gains accrue more to unskilled workers,while employment decreases for more skilled workers.This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice.It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world.Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http:/www.worldbank.org/prwp.The authors may be contacted at gacevedoworldbank.org.Export and Labor Market Outcomes:A Supply Chain Perspective-Evidence from Viet NamDeeksha KokasaGladys Lopez-AcevedobHa Vuca Nanyang Technological Universityb Poverty and Equity Global Practice,World Bank*c Economic Frontiers,International Institute for Applied System Analysis*STATMEMENTS AND DECLARATIONS:This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Practiceat the World Bank Group.It was funded by the UFT Trade Facilitation Program and the Australia WorldBank Group Strategic Partnership in Viet Nam Phase 2(ABP2).We thank the following colleagues fortheir support during this process Raymond Robertson,Matthew Wai-Poi,Rinku Murgai,Judy Yang,DorsatiMadani,Sacha Dray and Deborah Elisabeth Winkler.The views expressed herein are those of the authorsand do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank.1IntroductionIn the past two decades,the notable uptick in the integration of developing nations into global tradeand value chains(GVCs)has sparked heightened interest among policy makers and researchersregarding the implications for labor markets.Consequently,a substantial body of literature hasemerged seeking to unravel the intricate relationship between trade dynamics and localized labormarket outcomes.Standard theory about the benefi ts of trade assumes perfect mobility of factors across geo-graphical regions and industries within a country.However,recent empirical evidence has shedlight on the limitations of these conventional theoretical models.Topalova(2010)9 uses datafrom India to indicate that regions more exposed to trade liberalization have experienced slowerpoverty reduction and muted consumption growth,diverging from the predictions of traditionaltrade frameworks.Assuming segmented labor markets,and exploiting cross-market variation inimport exposure,a key study by Autor,Dorn,and Hanson(2013)2 confi rms that the”ChinaShock”led to signifi cant decline in employment and wages in more exposed U.S.regions.Thissparked more studies on the repercussions of tariff changes or import competition on local labormarkets(Pierre and Schott 2016 7;Acemoglu et al.2016 1;Dix-Carneiro and Kovak 2013 3).It is crucial to note that trade affects not only tradable but also non-tradable sectors withinthe same local labor markets;while increased import competition or market access directly im-pacts specifi c tradable sectors,there are also indirect effects on non-tradable sectors such as retail,healthcare,or hospitality in the same region.With few exceptions,current literature largely ignoresestimating these indirect effects propagated through domestic production linkages within a country10.While a few studies have examined the indirect effects of import shocks on local labor mar-kets,there has been limited exploration of indirect effects of exports.A central motivation for thisempirical inquiry stems from the well-documented fact that as economies undergo structural trans-formationthat is,as they move from less agriculture to more services and manufacturingthe1proportion of domestic services or inputs in total outputs tends to rise(McCaig 2013 6;Ghosh2021).At fi rst glance,this might suggest that a larger proportion of employment remains unaf-fected by trade,given the larger non-tradable component of the services sector.However,moretrade can even indirectly influence non-tradable industries that serve as inputs to tradeable sectors.This paper focuses on estimating the total effect on labor market outcomes in response to anexport shock at the provincial level in Viet Nam from 2009 to 2019.In order to fully capturethe overall impact of trade,we need to consider crucial supply chain linkages previous researchhas overlooked.Our analysis goes beyond solely focusing on directly exporting industries andaccounts for industries indirectly affected by the rising demand for exports.To accomplish this,we adopt a multi-stage approach.Initially,we employ an instrumentalvariable(IV)methodology to isolate an exogenous component of trade driven solely by foreigndemand.The chosen IV is the proportion of a given trading partner countrys share in a specifi ccommodity relative to Viet Nams total export value in that commodity,adjusted by the observedGDP growth of the partner country.This IV demonstrates a strong predictive capacity for VietNams export values while maintaining plausible independence from any supply-side determinantsof exports.Subsequently,leveraging the predicted export exposure obtained in the fi rst stage,we constructa matrix delineating the direct and indirect exposure of each industry in each province.This isaccomplished by utilizing input-output tables that document the flow of intermediate goods amongdifferent sectors in the economy.The predicted export exposure calculated earlier is then dis-tributed proportionally to the labor share of each industry within each province.Finally,we estimate the direct and indirect effects of exports by conducting a regression analy-sis of these computed exposures against various labor market outcomes of interest at the provinciallevel:wage levels,income disparities,the premium on college education wages,gender wagedifferentials,employment rates,rates of inactivity,informality in employment,and female em-ployment rates.Additionally,we conduct a detailed examination of how these labor effects differ2across gender,income levels,educational attainment,and employment sectors to elucidate whichdemographic groups benefi t and which are adversely affected by this process.Our analysis goesbeyond solely focusing on directly exporting industries and accounts for industries indirectly af-fected by the rising demand for exports.This study looks at the specifi c context of Viet Nam for a few important reasons.First,VietNam exemplifi es the success of Asias export-driven growth model,making it a prime candidatefor study due to the wealth of empirical evidence available.Over the past two decades,Viet Namhas witnessed substantial increases in real income,a reduction in poverty(excluding the Covid-19pandemic in 2020),and an alignment of import-export activities with GDP,reflecting its integra-tion into global value chains.Improvements in the labor market have accompanied this economicprogress,including lower unemployment rates and increased female workforce participation.Fig-ure 1 encapsulates Viet Nams Poverty Rate Reduction driven by its export focus.Figure 3 in theAppendix provides more trends in Trade,Labor,and other Socioeconomic Indicators of Viet Namfor a side-by-side visual comparison.3Figure 1:Trend in Poverty Rate in Viet NamSource:World Bank staff calculationsFigure 2:Domestic Service Sector Share in Total Output of Domestic Non-Service Sector in VietNam(2020)Source:World Bank staff calculation with Asian Development Bank data.4Second,theprominenceofdomesticserviceswithinVietNamsnon-tradablesectorsisnotable,representing an average of 10 percent of total output.The connection between non-service and ser-vice sectors is vital for amplifying the impact of exports on labor markets.In Viet Nam,domesticnon-service industries heavily rely on domestic services as inputs.Figure 2 illustrates that around50 percent of Vietnamese non-service sectors use local services,making up more than 15 percentof their end output.Neglecting these indirect export effects on domestic services and input supplysectors overlooks a crucial link tying local labor markets to foreign demand changes.Recognizingand understanding these connections is crucial for grasping the wider effects of export-orientedeconomic activities in Viet Nam.A signifi cant proportion of non-service sector-country clustersexhibit a substantial reliance on local services,with approximately 50 percent showcasing a localservices usage share exceeding 8 percent,and a minority displaying shares as high as 20 percent.Against this background,this study aims to examine the direct and indirect effects of exports,which are supported by supply chain connections,on the labor market.Third,Viet Nam heavily relies on the advantageous demographic structure of its labor forceto propel economic advancement,characterized by a great proportion of the popula-tion beingof working age as well as a signifi cant spatial variation across sectoral specialization.Therefore,thisinvestigationaimstoleveragethese variances to scrutinize how the potentialeffects vary acrossdiversedemographicstratawithinthelaborforce:urban,rural,youthful,highly-skilled,andfemalecohorts,among others.We fi nd that both direct and indirect exposure to exports has a signifi cant impact on labor mar-ket outcomes,especially for those with no to little education and in the lowest income bracket.Thewage premium for attending college decreases,and the gender wage gap narrows.With respectto employment variables,direct exposure to exports increases employment and reduces inactivity,with fi ndings remaining consistent when accounting for supply chain linkages.The gains in em-ployment concentrate among workers with no schooling,while the employment rate falls for moreskilled workers.5In this paper,we estimate the total impact of changes in exports driven by foreign demandshocks,rather than tariff changes or import competition,on labor market outcomes including in-come and employment variables.This direct and indirect export-induced demand has been studiedin Goutam et al.(2017)5;however,as only employment variables are in focus,many otherquestions regarding wages and heterogeneity have been left unanswered.The paper proceeds as follows.Section 2 presents a conceptual framework that allows us toexamine the local labor market repercussions of exports,incorporating a supply chain perspective.Section 3 discusses the data used and how we constructed the export exposure analysis using Input-Output linkages.Section 4 describes the empirical strategy and Section 5 presents the empiricalresults.Section 6 concludes.2Conceptual FrameworkWe apply a standard shift-share approach that assesses the effects of trade shocks on labor markets.Relevant works in the literature include Autor,Dorn and Hanson(2013)and Dix-Carneiro andKovak(2015)32.Moredirectlyrelatedtoexploringtheeffectsofexportsonlocallabormarketsare studies by Robertson et.al.(2021)and G oes,Lopez-Acevedo,and Robertson(2023)8 4.Unlike the papers above,however,our index in this paper is not one of export exposure,butone of total export receipts exposure.By exploiting the input-output structure of production,weaccount for both direct and indirect payments to factors of production,and use trade data to movecloser to regional production,which is what we would ideally like to observe.Let s,d be industry index(s stands for source sector and d stands for destination sector),andlet s,ddenote the intermediate use shares of a good of industry s in the production process of agood of industry d.Under the assumptions of perfect competitive or monopolistic competitiveproduct markets,a constant fraction of total sales will be paid to the factors of production.Ifdomestic factor markets are competitive,there are no mark-ups or mark-downs on factor prices.6Under those assumptions,then,up to a fi rst-order approximation,the value of export sales can bedistributed through the production network in the following fashion:PdQdValue of Export of sector dss,dPsQsValue of intermediate use of sector d+VAdValue added of sector dTherefore,we can account for total payments to each source sector s by summing over paymentsto sector s from every sector d in addition to the value added of sector s:Xs,t+h(ds,dPs,t+hQs,t+hds,dPs,tQs,t)+VAs,t+hor in words,Total Export ExposureIndirect Export Exposure+Direct Export ExposureSo far,we have defi ned these relationships in terms of input-output linkages.To turn to the empir-ical effects on labor markets,we now defi ne local labor markets exposure to total export receipts.Let r denote different regions in the country,exposure to total export receipts growth at regionallevel is defi ned as:Xr,s,t+hsLr,s,tLs,tsLr,s,trLr,s,tXs,t+hwhere Xr,s,tdenotes total export exposure of industry s to region r at period t,as defi ned above;Lr,s,tdenotes total employment of industry s in region r at time t.The termLr,s,tLs,tmeasures the shareof region r in the national employment of industry s.73DataThe goal of the paper is to assess the direct and indirect effects of export expansion on local labormarket outcomes in Viet Nam while accounting for supply chain linkages.To do this,we exploitv