2024年全球半导体产业展望(英).pdf
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1、2024 global semiconductor industry outlook 2Executive summary 3Generative AI and the next wave of chip supply 4Making smart manufacturing smarter 6Semiconductor assembly and test venture into new geographies 8Bolstering cybersecurity to combat intensifying cyberthreats 10Geopolitics,export controls,
2、semiconductors,advanced nodes,and AI 11Signposts for the future 12Whats inside2024 global semiconductor industry outlookAbout Deloittes OutlooksDeloittes 2024 global semiconductor industry outlook seeks to identify the strategic issues and opportunities for semiconductor companies and other parts of
3、 the semiconductor supply chain to consider in the coming year,including their impacts,key actions to take,and critical questions to ask.The goal is to help equip companies across the semiconductor supply chain with the information and foresight to better position themselves for a robust and resilie
4、nt future.Chip sales look to bounce back in 2024,led by generative AI,but could be complicated by geopoliticsThe infamously cyclical semiconductor industry had a challenging year in 2023,the seventh downturn since 1990,with sales expected to be down 9.4%(to US$520 billion)for the year.1 But thats no
5、t as bad as was expected in the spring;before relatively stronger second and third quarters were in the books,the previous forecast had been for US$515 billion.2 2024 is now predicted to see global sales of US$588 billion.3 Not only would that be 13%better than 2023,but its 2.5%higher than 2022s rec
6、ord industry revenues of US$574 billion.The stock market is often a leading indicator of industry performance:As of mid-December 2023,the combined market capitalization of the top 10 global chip companies was US$3.4 trillion,up 74%from US$1.9 trillion in November 2022 and 17%higher than the US$2.9 t
7、rillion we saw in November 2021.4As is so often the case,the memory chip market was the biggest swing factor.In 2022,memory sales were almost US$130 billion,or just under 23%of the overall chip market,but they dropped 31%(about US$40 billion)in 2023,compared to down 1%for logic.The market is expecte
8、d to get almost all of that back in 2024,with sales expected to reach 2022 levels.If we exclude memory,the rest of the industry was down in 2023,but only by about 3%.5In terms of end markets,both PC and smartphone sales are expected to grow 4%in 2024,after 2023 declines of 14%and 3.5%,respectively.6
9、 Returning to growth for these two end markets is likely important for the semi industry:In 2022,communication and computer chip sales(which include data center chips)made up 56%of overall semiconductor sales for the year,compared to auto and industrial,which accounted for only 14%of sales each,for
10、example.7Two other important measures of the industrys health are inventories and fab utilization.As of fall 2023,inventories remained high at more than US$60 billion,about the same level as the previous year.And the process of drawing those down will be a significant headwind for sales in the first
11、 half of 2024.8 In addition,utilization was high during the recent shortage(in the mid-90%range)and is expected to fall below 70%in Q4 2023.9 The industry likely needs utilization to be much higher than that to be profitable,which could take some time.Meanwhile,capacity is also growing as the United
12、 States and Europe increase domestic chipmaking.These trends and others play into our 2024 global semiconductor industry outlook,where we drill down into five big topics for the year ahead:generative AI accelerator chips and how semiconductor companies are using gen AI;trends around smart manufactur
13、ing;the need for more assembly and test capacity worldwide;how chip industry intellectual property(IP)is a target for cyberattacks at a whole new threat level;and a final geopolitics section that looks at export controls around advanced node manufacturing equipment and technologies,as well as advanc
14、ed gen AI semiconductors.There are some interesting angles to the gen AI chip boom that affect the chip industry as a whole.With sales predicted to reach more than US$50 billion in 2024,10 this market is a tailwind for the sector and is expected to account for about 8.5%of sales.A portion of that wi
15、ll come from logic processors made on advanced nodes,some of it from advanced high bandwidth memory(HBM3),some from advanced 2.5D packaging,plus some from advanced connectivity chips.In each category,these gen AI-driven chips are among the priciest of their kind.In 2022,more than a trillion chips we
16、re sold at an average selling price of US$0.57 per chip.11 Meanwhile,some gen AI chips were selling for US$40,000 each in 2023,or 70,000 x higher,and therefore US$50 billion worth of chips might only be a volume of 1.25 million chips,or less than 0.1%of total chip volumes for the year.12Why does tha
17、t matter?Although gen AI chips are expected to be a big part of 2024 chip revenues(and likely to be even bigger in the future),they are a relatively small part of unit volumes,and therefore manufacturing capacity.As mentioned above,with industry utilization below 70%,having gen AI chips fly off the
18、shelves is great news for the handful of companies that sell those chips or parts of those chips,but it may not be as helpful for the overall industry.For the industry to see optimal utilization across all process nodes,other kinds of chips in addition to gen AI may need to see stronger demand.Execu
19、tive summary2024 global semiconductor industry outlook32024 global semiconductor industry outlook4 4Selling gen AI chips:The market for chips that accelerate the training and inference of generative AI models was the semiconductor story of 2023.At a high level,gen AI chips are packages of special GP
20、Us,special CPUs,special HBM3 in advanced 2.5D packaging,plus other special chips needed for connectivity in the data center.13 For an industry fighting headwinds from weak memory prices,and weak demand for smartphone and computer chips,gen AI chips provided a growth area,especially at leading manufa
21、cturing nodes.As 2024 approaches,the market for these chips looks to be strong and is predicted to reach more than US$50 billion in sales for the year,14 or 8.5%of the value of all chips expected to be sold for the year.15In the longer term,there are forecasts suggesting that AI chips could reach US
22、$400 billion in sales by 2027.16 But what will happen in 2024?On the one hand,Deloitte predicted in November 2023 that gen AI chip sales will be more than US$50 billion in 2024.17 On the other,there are reasons to believe quarterly gen AI chip sales growth could flatten or even decline at some point
23、,at least for a while.Fall 2023 was a perfect storm:strong demand,buyers eager to secure supply,and relatively few choices.But this could change at some point in 2024.1.New entrants:New chips are expected from existing gen AI chipmakers as well as emerging gen AI chipmakers.And new chips will likely
24、 come from companies that,up until now,have been better known as buyers of chips but have decided to start making their own.Nobody knows how any of these will fare at this point.2.New architectures and models:There are many different gen AI models and approaches,and no single chip architecture is li
25、kely to be optimal for all use cases.There will likely be data center chips,edge chips,training chips,and inferencing chips,and its expected that billions of dollars will be spent developing these“flavors”of gen AI chips.3.Edge chips:Its possible that in 2024 more processing will be done at the edge
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