2024年体育行业展望.pdf

2024 sports industry outlook2024 sports industry outlook2Executive summary 3New opportunities from the rapid evolution of commercial models 4Sports organizations boost investment in fan data 6Warming up for generative AI 8Paris Games serve as a model for mega-events of the future 9Stability or more disruption:Will college athletics reach a new normal?11Signposts for the future 12Whats insideAbout Deloittes OutlooksDeloittes 2024 outlook for the sports industry seeks to identify the strategic issues sports organizations should consider in the coming year and their impacts,as well as critical questions to ask and key actions to take.The goal is to equip sports organizations with the information they need to help position themselves for a strong,resilient future.2024 sports industry outlook3Looking back one day,the five years after the coronavirus pandemic will be seen as a transformative period in the global sports industry.This period will be marked by significant changes in technological capabilities,as well as shifts in business and commercial models for sports leagues and teams.Over the past few years,individual athletes have had unique impacts on the sports landscapewith many reaching“influencer”status,speaking openly about social issues,and changing the way fans can connect directly with their favorite sports stars.Weve also seen sports fans themselves having a notable influence on how sports are consumed and monetizedand how sports are woven into the broader media and entertainment ecosystem.As the global sports industry continues to navigate this period of massive transformation,our 2024 outlook will explore five trends sports organizations are expected to face in the coming year and the corresponding impacts.This includes the changing economics of sports,use cases for generative artificial intelligence(AI),the future of mega-events,investments in fan data,and the potential for a“new normal”in college athletics.These trends raise the following questions:How will sports organizations transform their commercial model to meet the increasingly complex needs of their customers,partners,and key stakeholders?How will technology,especially AI,continue to disrupt the current model while also creating new opportunities?What will mega-events of the future look like as they aim to balance cost with experience and legacy?How can sports leagues and organizations tap into the power of fan data to boost partnerships and drive engagement?What will college athletics look like in 2024and beyondfor schools,conferences,and student-athletes?The five key sports trends that we explore throughout this reportand the answers to these strategic questionswill have widespread impacts on the sports industry this year,and for many years to come.Executive summary2024 sports industry outlook4 4The overall economics of the sports industry is expected to continue to be strong in 2024.However,the commercial model,which has been undergoing significant shifts in recent years,will likely continue to transform across both traditional and emerging revenue streams.Traditional areas like sponsorships,ticketing,licensing,and merchandise will likely continue to evolve based on better collection,analysis,and use of fan data.Emerging trendslike a greater variety of investors and media rights holders,globalization,the growth of womens sports,and new real estate ventures could unlock new possibilities.Evidence of the industrys strength is supported by the fact that team valuations continue to climbfor both mens and womens sports.In 2023,in the United States,sales records were broken in the National Football League(NFL),the National Hockey League(NHL),and the National Basketball Association(NBA).1 The Golden State Warriors paid a record-setting US$50 million expansion fee for a new Womens National Basketball Association(WNBA)team that will begin playing in 2025.2 Revenue growth is also strong:According to the Deloitte Football Money League 2023,the total revenue for the top 20 revenue-generating European clubs increased by 13%,compared to 202021(back to a pre-pandemic high).3 In 2024,sovereign wealth funds and private equity are likely to continue their growing presence in sports,too.The NFL may be considering potential changes to its ownership rules to allow for institutional investment in some form.5 The value of many teams and leagues is anchored by lucrative media rights deals.In 2024,well see how this competitive market is maturing with official negotiations starting for the NBA and new deals for some of Europes major football leagues.The expectation is that the NBA will see a considerable increase in the value of its media rights with a mix of traditional broadcast/cable channels and streamers bidding.6 Recently,some European football leagues domestic media rights deals have either failed to substantially increase their value or attract new,or nontraditional,bidders.7 On the womens side,the two major US sports leaguesthe National Womens Soccer League(NWSL)and WNBArecently saw new,or expanded,media deals.8 In 2024,the English Womens Super League is looking to attract strong competition for its media rights as it relaunches for the 202425 season under a new business structure.9New opportunities from the rapid evolution of commercial models5Media companies are looking for a strong return on investment(ROI)from these increasingly expensive deals as a growing number of consumers move from broadcast and cable TV to streaming.Faced with the financial difficulties of regional sports networks(RSNs),leagues and media companies in the United States are figuring out new ways to deliver local sports coverage.10 Warner Bros.Discovery is looking to attract fans to its Bleacher Report paid add-on,part of its Max streaming service.11 In what could potentially radically reshape the market,ESPN is looking to launch a direct-to-consumer service in 2025.12 The cost for this stand-alone service could be quite high for consumers,but if it could offer enough compelling content and act as an integrated sports hub for fans,it may be well worth it.What about emerging sports business areas?In 2024,we expect to see more interest and activity from opportunities related to globalization,womens sports,and sports venues with multi-use districts.Teams and leagues are trying to broaden their global appeal through international media rights deals and international partnerships,playing games in other countries,affiliations with domestic leagues,and new marketing and fan engagement efforts.13 Investors,hoping for long-term growth,are expected to continue to be drawn to the potential strong upside for womens leagues14which are reporting record revenues,attendance,and media rights deal values.15 We also expect to see new sports venues opening in 2024 that are designed to blend and expand the in-venue experience into surrounding commercial and entertainment districts.16 This is all great for owners and investors,but what about the fans?Theyre seeing costs increase for both in-person events(e.g.,ticket prices)and watching at home(e.g.,streaming subscriptions).Fans are also faced with a fragmenting media landscape.Is there a breaking point?Teams,leagues,and media companies should make sure they can reach all fans,at all levels,and provide ample opportunities for discoverywhile still meeting their financial goals.With increasing competition for attention,if the barriers to entry for sports become too high for younger fans,they can just go elsewhere.Think of it as providing younger fans a path from social media to season tickets.As globalization expands,how can teams,leagues,and media companies keep the focus on supporting local fans?How can teams,leagues,and media companies improve discoverability and reduce barriers to entry to strengthen the next generation of fans?Is the growth in media rights sustainable?Will streamings recent woes rub off on their sports aspirations?And if a breaking point is reached,what would the ramifications be?How can teams,leagues,and associations continue to diversify their revenue streams and create a more balanced portfolio not so reliant on media rights?Strategic questions to consider:2024 sports industry outlook2024 sports industry outlook6Sports organizations have an important connection with their fan bases,but they often have superficial or incomplete knowledge of their fans.Some organizations may be relying heavily on multiple second-or third-party data sources for indirect information about their fans.17 Others may have access to first-party data about their fans,but its scattered across platforms,systems,teams,or departments.18 Moving forward,we expect to see many sports organizations and leagues put significant effortand investment into aggregating and managing their own extensive fan data programs and building proprietary fan databases.Consider the following scenario:Fan A purchases their event ticket through an online reseller,buys a team jersey on an online sports retailer,boasts about that purchase on social media,watches video clips from previous games on a website,uses a ride-sharing service to get to the game,posts selfies from the venue to an online platform,and orders nachos with a credit card in the stadium.Fan As data is likely scattered across various systems and departments and doesnt link together to give the organization a complete profile of that fan.However,the right technology stack,database infrastructure,and data-sharing agreements with second and third parties could allow all these data points for Fan A to come together to create a single record.But gathering fan insights may not be enough.Collecting and aggregating fan behavioral and interaction dataalongside relevant second-and third-party datato build out a database with a single,comprehensive record for each fan is step one.Using the data and monetizing it is step two.For starters,sports organizations can use this data to better target and reach fans with personalized marketing messages,promotions,and fan experiencesall in the hopes of driving engagement,loyalty,and purchasing.19 In 2022,the NFL created one centralized league database of more than 20 million fans in an effort to streamline and personalize outreach.20 Major League Baseball uses its fans data to send personalized promotions and notifications and to enhance the in-stadium experience for attendees with directions and discounts.21 And according to Deloitte research,this approach is a home run:nearly 70%of consumers are more likely to purchase from a brand that personalizes its customer experience compared with a brand that doesnt.22 For their part,consumers have come to expect personalized marketing and communications from the brands and organizations they interact with2368%of consumers say personalization significantly increases their brand satisfaction24and their favorite sports leagues and teams are no exception.Sports organizations boost investment in fan data7In addition to driving fan engagement and spending,these proprietary fan databases can also support emerging revenue streams for leagues and teams by securing stronger sponsorships,naming rights,and media rights deals.When working with sponsors and advertisers,they may want to know who the fan is and how best to reach them,along with information about their movement around the stadium and their in-stadium purchases.25 Media partners will likely want to know about organizations viewing population and what else they might be doing,buying,or watching.A complete,proprietary fan database can give sports organizations the knowledge and insights to answer those questions with rich data.Despite the upside for sports organizations,these efforts arent without challenges.The growth potential for fan data relies on continuous data collection and enhancement,marketing technology capabilities and processes,strong data governance,and reliable rules for consent and data privacy that comply with relevant laws and regulations26all of which require investments in technology and resources.Investments in fan data are likely to pay off for leagues through improved ROI,increased fan engagement and loyalty,and stronger relationships with future sponsors,investors,and media entities.Creating a robust program around fan data has the potential to be a winning strategy.What partners should sports organizations collaborate with in order to advance their fan data program to meet the needs of the evolving sports landscape?What is the monetization strategy for fan data,and what capabilities need to be built up to drive that strategy forward?How can leagues and teams responsibly work with second-and third-party vendors(and implement data-sharing agreements)to build databases that create a full profile of their fans?In what ways can leagues,organizations,and sports ownership groups use fan databases to connect,interact,and engage with their fansand how can loyal and casual fans alike be part of their outreach strategy?Strategic questions to consider:2024 sports industry outlook2024 sports industry outlook8Artificial intelligence(AI)has been used in a variety of sports-specific use cases for several years now.In venues,its been used to improve security and provide fans contactless checkout.27 For athletes,coaches,trainers,and referees,its been used to help improve performance,enhance scouting,prevent injury,and make officiating more objective.28 For fans,AI is personalizing the fan experience and creating a better product to watch.And for front-office operations,artificial intelligence is providing deeper insights into fan behavior,driving tickets sales through better marketing,and simplifying contracting.29 When generative AI captured the attention of consumers and technologists alike in November 2022,it sparked widespread fascination and excitement around what might be possible.Being able to quickly and easily create new content(e.g.,text,speech,video,code)from natural language prompts,generative AI tools and applications have the capability to dramatically improve efficiency and enable workers to shift from lower-to higher-value tasks.This general-purpose technology is expected to see rapid and pervasive adoption in the sports industry in 2024,making it critical that a thoughtful approach is taken to unlocking its value.There have already been some exciting applications of generative AI for sports content production.Generative AI tools have been used to produce near real-time translations of broadcasts and automated audio commentary.LaLiga partnered with technology companies to automatically generate multilingual subtitles for its live matches.30 IBM,through its watsonx platform,created audio commentary without human intervention,for video highlights at both the Wimbledon tennis tournament and Masters Tournament golf championship.31 Some broadcasters are using generative AI to rapidly produce new content from millions of hours of archival video footage.32 There have also been some early t