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1、The economyThe haves and the have-notsBut even rich Arab countries cannot squander their resources indefinitelyJul 13th 2013 |From the print edition1THE SWEET PERFUME wafting over northern Iraq does not come from the wildflowers that speckle its rumpled plains in spring. It is the smell of oil and i
2、t is everywhere, flaring at wellheads, sloshing from the tanker trucks that grind up potholed roads to backyard refineries in the Kurdish hills and fuming from their chimneys. Nor is this the oiliest part of Iraq. That lies in the deserts to the south where it literally seeps from the ground. In fac
3、t the whole of Iraq sits atop seams and pockets of the sticky stuff. There is plenty to go around, if only the Iraqis could agree to stop shooting each other.2There is plenty for other Arabs, too. Taken together, their 19 countries hold some 46% of the worlds total proven oil reserves (as well as a
4、quarter of its natural-gas reserves). The ones with the most have it doubly easy. Saudis or Kuwaitis spend just $3 to tap a barrel from their most accessible wells. Small wonder that their oilmen scoff at looming competition from Americas fancy frackers and shalers. The technical wizardry of the mod
5、ern drilling techniques that may soon make America self-sufficient in energy can push the cost of extracting a barrel well beyond $100.3The Arab worlds hydrocarbon riches are unevenly shared. Saudi Arabia alone holds the bulk of all reserves. Just eight Arab countries have actually grown rich from e
6、nergy exports, though some of them spectacularly so: in the tiny emirate of Qatar some 14% of households are dollar millionaires, a higher proportion than in any other country. Divided among its 250,000 citizens (the other 85% of Qatars population of 2.1m are foreign workers), the tiny emirates GDP
7、comes to $700,000 per person. Average incomes across the Arab Gulf states are around 50 times those in Yemen, Sudan and Mauritania.4This may change. Poorer Arab states are not about to become new Qatars, but many, such as Yemen, Tunisia, Sudan and Egypt, already export oil or gas, and the lingering
8、energy paupers are doing better too. Morocco, until now completely reliant on imports, pins high hopes on offshore exploration that is just getting under way. Its Atlantic shelf shares the same promising geology that oil companies in Mauritania are already exploiting. Much of this potential lode ski
9、rts the long coast of the Western Sahara, where sovereignty remains contested despite four decades of de facto Moroccan control. But there may be plenty in undisputed waters, too.A wobbly balance5Huge gasfields in the eastern Mediterranean also sprawl across maritime borders. Egypt has been tapping
10、its patch for years, with Israel following more recently. Lebanon has untangled itself from internal bickering. Some day Gaza should have a share of the crowded territorys only resource aside from people. Perhaps in the future the other part of Palestine, the West Bank, will also profit from the sma
11、ll deposits of crude oil that Israeli firms have found under its hills. Even Jordan may at last be able to stop begging its neighbours for fuel. If oil prices hold steady above the $100 mark around which they have fluctuated in recent years, the shale oil that sits under 60% of Jordans surface will
12、become commercially viable.6That is a big if. In 1999 this newspaper speculated that oil prices might collapse to $5 a barrel. Instead they soared, peaking in 2008 at $145. The worlds current mix of political instability in oil-producing zones and surging demand from Asia leads some to think that de
13、spite expanding oil production worldwide, a wobbly balance between supply and demand might be maintained. But experience suggests that high prices sustained over long periods encourage massive investment in exploration and improved yields from existing infrastructure.7That is what happened in the 19
14、70s, when high prices spurred energy conservation and made it cost-effective to produce in places like Alaska and the North Sea. The resulting oil-price collapse in the 1980s lasted a long time, despite rising Asian demand and supply shocks such as the eight-year war between two of the biggest expor
15、ters, Iran and Iraq. Arab producers were badly hit. GDP per person in Saudi Arabia and Libya shrank by a third and took 20 years to regain its 1981 level.8A similar price fall today might not seem as threatening to the bigger Arab producers. Over the past decade they have racked up surpluses approac
16、hing the size of the combined GDP of all 19 Arab states, $2.9 trillion. About half of that is sitting in sovereign-wealth funds or foreign-currency reserves. But many governments, wary of unrest, have also raised state spending to potentially unsustainable levels. The so-called fiscal break-even poi
17、nt (the oil price needed to balance exporters budgets) is currently over $80 for Saudi Arabia and $110 for Algeria, which relies on energy exports for 70% of its government revenue.9Both governments could simply cut spending, though that involves political risks. They could also try something else:
18、raise local energy prices. Throughout the region, the combination of big resources and patriarchal politics has made a hash of economics. The Arab hydrocarbons industry as a whole generates about $750 billion a year, but nearly a third of that, $240 billion by the IMFs estimate, is frittered away on
19、 energy subsidies for Arab consumers.10In Saudi Arabia, for instance, petrol costs under $0.20 a litre. Local consumption already eats up a quarter of Saudi oil output, and on current trends could devour all of it within 25 years. Domestic oil consumption across the Arab world last year rose by 5.2%
20、, the highest rate in any region. In the Gulf states it has been growing at an annual 6% since 1980.11Rich countries can afford this, though not indefinitely. For poor countries the subsidies have become ruinous. Yemens government, for instance, spends the equivalent of 6% of its GDP on keeping fuel
21、 prices low, more than on health and education combined. Most of this goes on diesel, which feeds the water pumps that irrigate the countrys most important crop, qat, a pleasantly narcotic shrub that keeps millions quiet.12The cost to Egypt is just as heavy. The governments subsidy bill is $18 billi
22、on, again far higher than its spending on public schools and hospitals, and almost precisely matches its 11% budget deficit. That might have been fudged in the past, since most fuels were produced by state-owned firms and the cost of subsidies was implicit rather than paid in cash. But with local co
23、nsumption growing rapidly, Egypt has lately become a net importer. Its central-bank reserves have dropped from $36 billion to $16 billion since the revolution in February 2011.13The IMF reckons that in two out of three Arab countries energy subsidies account for more than 5% of GDP, whereas food sub
24、sidies in the region average only 0.7%. It is true that in places like Egypt cheap transport has encouraged mobility and cheap power has favoured investment in energy-intensive industries such as fertilisers and cement. But the benefits tend to be skewed to the owners of factories and gas-guzzlers.
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