芒格主义--中英对照.doc
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1、芒格主义 完整版 中英对照 (1)”Most people are too fretful, they worry too much.Success means being very patient, but aggressive when its time.” 看完这条可不要too aggressive哈。芒格本人曾经就因为用margin给自己带来过大麻烦。我这个朋友也喜欢用margin,非常危险。1,大部分人都太浮躁、担心得太多。成功需要非常平静耐心,但是机会来临的时候也要足够进取。(2)”Using a stocks volatility as a measure of risk is
2、nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2) the risk of inadequate return. Some great businesses have very volatile returns for example, Sees a candy company owned2,根据股票的波动性来判断风险是很傻的。我们认为只有两种风险:一,血本无归;二,回报不足。有些很好的生意也是波动性很大的,比如Sees糖果通常一年有两个季度都是亏钱的。反倒是有些烂透了的公司生意业绩很稳定。(3)”I thin
3、k that, every time you saw the word EBITDA earnings, you should substitute the word “bullshit” earnings.”3,所谓的“息税折摊前利润”就是狗屎。(4)“Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. Ive never seen him do one.”?”Its true,” replied Buffett. “If the value of a company doesnt just scream out at you, its too c
4、lose.” 就是毛估估的意思?4,巴菲特有时会提到“折现现金流”,但是我从来没见过他算这个。(巴菲特答曰“没错,如果还要算才能得出的价值那就太不足恃了”)(5)”If you buy something because its undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. Thats hard. But if you buy a few great companies, then you can sit on yo
5、ur ass. Thats a good thing.” 这条大概要花很多年才能真明白,大概就是未来现金流折现的意思。我觉得自己现在大概有点明白了。5,如果你买了一个价值低估的股票,你就要等到价格达到你算出来的内在价值时卖掉,这是很难算的。但是如果你买了一个伟大的公司,你就坐那儿呆着就行了。(6)”We bought a doomed textile mill Berkshire Hathaway and a California S&L Wesco just before a calamity. Both were bought at a discount to liquidatio
6、n value.”6,我们买过一个纺织厂(Berkshire Hathaway)和一个加州的存贷行(Wesco),这俩后来都带来了灾难。但是我们买的时候,价格都比清算价值打折还低。(7)”For society, the Internet is wonderful, but for capitalists, it will be a net negative. It will increase efficiency, but lots of things increase efficiency without increasing profits. It is way more likely
7、to make American businesses less profitable than more profitable. This is perfectly obvious, but very little understood.” 我也这么认为:internet 实际上是就业杀手,需要很多年才能消化。但是,如果能看懂这个变化则会非常有收获。7,互联网对于社会是极为美好的,但是对于资本家来说纯属祸害。互联网能提高效率,但是有很多东西都是提高效率却降低利润的。互联网会让美国的企业少赚钱而不是多赚钱。(8)”Virtually every investment experts publi
8、c assessment is that he is above average, no matter what is the evidence to the contrary.” 这可是芒格说的哈。8,市面上对每个投资专家的评价都是高于平均的,不管有多少证据证明其实根本不是那回事儿。(9)”Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.”9,同第5条。(10)”Warren spends 70 hours a week thinking about investing.”10,巴菲特每个礼
9、拜有70个小时花在思考投资上。(11)”People calculate too much and think too little.” 投资上看起来确实如此。11,人们算得太多、想得太少。(12)”Whenever you think something or some person is ruining your life, its you. A victimization mentality is so debilitating.”12,无论何时,如果你觉得有东西在摧毁你的生活,那个东西就是你自己。老觉得自己是受害者的想法是最削弱自己的利器。(13)”The tax code gives
10、 you an enormous advantage if you can find some things you can just sit with.” 对美国人尤其如此,外国人投美股有点不同13,税法决定了,还是买个伟大公司傻等它飞起来最划算。(14)”If youre going to buy something which compounds for 30 years at 15% per annum and you pay one 35% tax at the very end, the way that works out is that after taxes, you kee
11、p 13.3% per annum. In contrast, if you bought the same investment, but had to pay taxes every year of 35% out of the 15% that you earned, then your return would be 15% minus 35% of 15%or only 9.75% per year compounded. So the difference there is over 3.5%. And what 3.5% does to the numbers over long
12、 holding periods like 30 years is truly eye-opening” 同上句。14,如果你买的股票每年复利回报15%,持续30年,而你最后一次性卖掉的时候交35%的税,那你的年回报还有13.3%。反之,对于同一支股票,如果你每年都卖一次交一次税,那你的年回报就只有9.75%。这个3.5%的差距放大到30年是让人大开眼界的。(15)”The number one idea, is to view a stock as an ownership of the business and to judge the staying quality of the bus
13、iness in terms of its competitive advantage. Look for more value in terms of discounted future cash flow than youre paying for. Move only when you have an advantage. Its very basic. You have to understand the odds and have the discipline to bet only when the odds are in your favor.” 很稀饭这句。15,最重要的,是要
14、把股票看作对于企业的一小片所有权,以企业的竞争优势来判断内在的价值。要寻找未来折现的现金利润比你支付的股价高的机会。这是很基础的,你得明白概率,只有当你赢的概率更大的时候才去下赌注。(16)”Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke. Youve made an enormous commitment to something.Youve poured effort and money in. And the more you put in, the more that the w
15、hole consistency principle makes you think,” Now it has to work. If I put in just a little more, then it all work. People go broke that way because they can t stop,rethink,and say, I can afford to write this one off and live to fight again. I dont have to pursue this thing as an obsession in a way t
16、hat will break me . “ 想起沉入成本。还想起老巴说的,如果是个坑就别再往下挖了。看看有多少人在给自己挖坑就明白了。16,人们破产的常见原因是不能控制心理上的纠结。你花了这么多心血、这么多金钱,花的越多,就越容易这么想:“估计快成了,再多花一点儿,就能成了” 人们就是这么破产的-因为他们不肯停下来想想:“之前投入的就算没了呗,我承受得起,我还可以重新振作。我不需要为这件事情沉迷不误,这可能会毁了我的。”(17)”in terms of business mistakes that Ive seen over a long lifetime, I would say that
17、trying to minimize taxes too much is one of the great standard causes of really dumb mistakes. I see terrible mistakes from people being overly motivated by tax considerations. Warren and I personally dont drill oil wells. We pay our taxes. And weve done pretty well, so far. Anytime somebody offers
18、you a tax shelter from here on in life, my advice would be dont buy it.” 让我想起那些为避税而搬离加州的有钱的朋友们,为了省那些未来不属于自己的钱而搬到一个自己未必喜欢的地方好像有点滑稽。当然,搬过去后又喜欢上了那是有智慧的表现啊,至少我还没听说哪位搬家后说新地方不好的。17,说到我这辈子在生意中见过的错误,过度追求避税是一个常见的让人做傻事儿的原因。我看到有人为了避税干很大的错事。巴菲特和我虽然不是挖石油的,但是我们该交的税都交,我们现在也过得挺好的。要是有人向你兜售避税套餐,别买。(18)”I believe that
19、 we are at or near the apex of a great civilization.In 50-100 years, if were a poor third to some countries in Asia, I wouldnt be surprised. If I had to bet, the part of the world that will do best will be Asia.” 或许50-100年也许稍微短了一点。18,我认为我们(美国)正处于或者接近我们文明的顶点如果50或者100年后,我们(美国)只比得上亚洲某国家的的三分之一,我一点儿也不会觉得
20、奇怪。如果要赌,这世界上将来干得最棒的应该是亚洲。(19)”To some extent, stocks are like Rembrandts. They sell based on what theyve sold in the past. Bonds are much more rational. No-one thinks a bonds value will soar to the moon.” “Imagine if every pension fund in America bought Rembrandts. Their value would go up and they w
21、ould create their own constituency.”19,某些程度上,股票就像是伦勃朗的画。它们的价格基于过去成交的价格。债券要理性得多。没有人会认为债券的价格会高到天上去。想象一下如果美国的所有退休基金都去买伦勃朗的油画,它们都会升值并且引来一帮追随者。(20)”Its crazy to assume that whats happening in Argentina and Japan is inconceivable here.”20,有人认为阿根廷和日本发生的事情在咱们这里(美国)绝对不会发生,这种想法是很疯狂的。(21)”REITs are way more su
22、itable for individual shareholders than for corporate shareholders. And Warren has enough residue from his old cigar-butt personality that when people became disenchanted with the REITs and the market price went down to maybe a 20% discount from what the companies could be liquidated for, he bought
23、a few shares with his personal money. So its nice that Warren has a few private assets with which to pick up cigar butts in memory of old times if thats what keeps him amused.”21,比起机构投资者,房产投资信托(REIT)更适合个人投资者。巴菲特还留着一些烟头性格(意指其早期偏重格雷厄姆式的投资价值低估企业的风格),这让他愿意在人们不喜欢房产投资信托并且市价跌出八折以内的时候,用自己的私房钱买点儿REIT。这种行为能让他
24、回忆起当年捡烟头的快乐,所以他自己有点儿闲钱鼓捣这事儿也挺好的。(22)”Smart people arent exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence. Often, they just run aground in the more difficult voyages they choose, relying on their self-appraisals that they have superior talents and methods.”22,聪明人也不免遭受过度自信带来的灾难。他们认为自己有更强的能力和更好的方
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