2020-2021年全球经济展望报告.pdf
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1、OECD Economic OutlookDecember 2020PRELIMINARY VERSIONOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK108DECEMBER 2020PRELIMINARY VERSIONThis work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD.The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD
2、member countries.This document,as well as any data and map included herein,are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied
3、by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law.Note by TurkeyThe information in this document with
4、reference to“Cyprus”relates to the southern part of the Island.There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island.Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus(TRNC).Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United
5、Nations,Turkeyshall preserve its position concerning the“Cyprus issue”.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Turkey.Theinformation in this document relates to the
6、area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Please cite this publication as:OECD(2020),OECD Economic Outlook,Volume 2020 Issue 2:Preliminary version,No.108,OECD Publishing,Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/39a88ab1-en.ISBN 978-92-64-68013-5(print)ISBN 978-92-64-86175-6(pd
7、f)OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574(print)ISSN 1609-7408(online)Photo credits:Cover Alliance Images/Shutterstock.Corrigenda to publications may be found on line at:www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.OECD 2020The use of this work,whether digital or print,is governed by the Terms and Condi
8、tions to be found at http:/www.oecd.org/termsandconditions.3 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020 Table of contents Editorial Turning hope into reality 7 1.General assessment of the macroeconomic situation 11 Introduction 12 The global recovery remains partial and
9、uneven 14 A gradual recovery amidst persisting uncertainty 29 Policy requirements 39 Bibliography 55 Annex 1.A.Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections 58 2.Issues notes on current policy challenges 59 Issue Note 1.The OECD Weekly Tracker of activity based on Google Trends 60 Issue No
10、te 2.Insolvency and debt overhang following the COVID-19 outbreak:Assessment of risks and policy responses 73 Issue Note 3.Post-financial-crisis changes to monetary policy frameworks:Driving factors and remaining challenges 86 Issue Note 4.Walking the tightrope:Avoiding a lockdown while containing t
11、he virus 98 3 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies 111 Argentina 112 Australia 115 Austria 118 Belgium 121 Brazil 124 Bulgaria 128 Canada 131 Chile 135 China 138 Colombia 142 Costa Rica 145 Czech Republic 148 Denmark 151 Estonia 154 Euro area 157 Finland 161 France 164 G
12、ermany 168 Greece 172 Hungary 175 4 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020 Iceland 178 India 181 Indonesia 185 Ireland 189 Israel 192 Italy 195 Japan 199 Korea 203 Latvia 206 Lithuania 209 Luxembourg 212 Mexico 215 Netherlands 218 New Zealand 221 Norway 224 Poland 22
13、7 Portugal 230 Romania 233 Slovak Republic 236 Slovenia 239 South Africa 242 Spain 245 Sweden 248 Switzerland 251 Turkey 254 United Kingdom 257 United States 261 FIGURES Figure 1.1.Output rebounded in the third quarter of 2020 after the sharp contraction in the first half of the year 14 Figure 1.2.G
14、rowth outcomes in the second quarter of 2020 are associated with differences in national containment measures and mobility 16 Figure 1.3.The pace of the recovery has slowed 18 Figure 1.4.The impact of the pandemic on activity remains severe in some service sectors 20 Figure 1.5.There are signs of fi
15、nancial fragilities in some service sectors 21 Figure 1.6.Uncertainty about the pandemic is expected to persist for some time 22 Figure 1.7.Global trade is slowly recovering,but international travel remains at very low levels 22 Figure 1.8.Selected indicators about bank deposits 24 Figure 1.9.The re
16、surgence of the virus is hitting activity in affected countries 25 Figure 1.10.Labour market conditions are recovering slowly 26 Figure 1.11.Lower-skilled and low-wage workers have been particularly affected 27 Figure 1.12.Financial market conditions have partly normalised 28 Figure 1.13.Growth is p
17、rojected to remain moderate with long-lasting costs 30 Figure 1.14.Labour market conditions are expected to remain subdued 32 Figure 1.15.Inflation is projected to remain low 33 Figure 1.16.There is considerable uncertainty around the baseline projection 36 Figure 1.17.Non-COVID-19-related import-re
18、strictive measures continue to rise 39 Figure 1.18.The global monetary policy stance was eased substantially in the first half of 2020 41 Figure 1.19.Changes in the discretionary fiscal stance vary across countries 44 Figure 1.20.Fiscal policy is providing considerable support to growth 45 Figure 1.
19、21.Government budget deficits and debt will widen 46 Figure 1.22.Vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies 47 Figure 1.23.Many of the sectors heavily affected by the pandemic are employment-intensive 50 5 OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK,VOLUME 2020 ISSUE 2:PRELIMINARY VERSION OECD 2020 Figure 1.24.Further
20、reforms are required to help all workers acquire new skills 52 Figure 1.25.Labour productivity gaps between frontier firms and others remain wide 54 Figure 1.26.Changes in the composition of energy investment are need to meet environmental objectives 55 Figure 2.1.Quarterly model:out-of-sample simul
21、ations 64 Figure 2.2.The OECD Weekly Tracker:United States 65 Figure 2.3.The OECD Weekly Tracker:selected advanced G20 economies in 2020 66 Figure 2.4.The OECD Weekly Tracker:emerging G20 economies in 2020 67 Figure 2.5.Most recent predictions of the OECD Weekly Tracker 69 Figure 2.6.Google search i
22、ntensities per spending categories 70 Figure 2.7.A substantial portion of otherwise viable firms is predicted to become distressed 76 Figure 2.8.The impact of the shock is heterogeneous across types of sectors and firms 77 Figure 2.9.Firms leverage is expected to increase in the aftermath of the cri
23、sis 78 Figure 2.10.A large portion of otherwise viable firms will find it hard to service their debt 78 Figure 2.11.High financial leverage decreases investment 80 Figure 2.12.Household inflation expectations tend to exceed realised inflation and targets 92 Figure 2.13.Persistent deflation has taken
24、 place for some categories of goods and services 93 Figure 2.14.Link between mobility and GDP forecast revisions at a quarterly frequency for the first and second quarters of 2020 98 Figure 2.15.Percentage of countries at different stringency levels for containment policies 100 Figure 2.16.The estim
25、ated effect of containment policies and natural caution on mobility 101 Figure 2.17.Median and interquartile range for the effective reproduction rate(R)102 Figure 2.18.Effect of containment policies and public health policies on(logged)R 104 Figure 2.19.Percentage of countries at different stringen
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