2020年人力资源的未来.pdf

2020 investment management outlookCrossing boundaries for profitable growthA report from the Deloitte Center for Financial Services2020:Crossing boundaries 3Finding growth with markets and products 5Creating operational efficiencies 11Customer experience and engagement 172020:Thriving in new territory 21Endnotes 22Contents2KEY MESSAGES The pace of mergers and acquisitions(M&A)may pick up over the coming year as investment managers look beyond their core capabilities to achieve top-line growth and extend client service offerings.To expand into emerging customer segments,leading firms will likely try to resonate culturally with their new customers,deliver through current or newly developed technology,and meet the changing investment expectations,such as ESG(environmental,social,and governance)principles,of these new segments.Private equity(PE)firms have started adopting alternative data for sourcing deals and conducting due diligence,following hedge fund and long-only managers.Adopting and using insights from alternative data sets for managing and transforming portfolio companies can be a game changer for PE firms.In 2020,Deloitte expects leading investment management firms to cross the boundary from traditional cost-efficiency projects into a save-to-transform approach,increasing competitive advantage in the process.2020 investment management outlook3THE CHANGES FACING many investment management firms are significant.Internally,long-standing operating models may need transformation to keep up with the competition,and digital-enabled customization is becoming a client expectation.Externally,firms may discover finding investors in new demographic segments or geographies is the most effective path to asset growth.Investors are adjusting their portfolio allocations in search of total return.In the retail market,this adjustment includes an expanding eye toward alternative investments.Consequently,many boards of directors of public firms with investment management capabilities are looking for new leadership they believe are better suited to deliver results in an increasingly dynamic and complex industry landscape.CEO turnover has been rising recently,with at least 37 US and European investment managers changing CEOs from 2017 to August 2019.1 In 2020,many investment management firms are highly motivated to cross boundaries in search of profitable growth.Crossing boundaries often means leaving the comfort zone and performing new activities or doing standard activities in dramatically new ways.Success can be found crossing boundaries with purpose:by modernizing business operations and by upgrading technology infrastructure to reimagine growth,operational efficiencies,and client experiences.All these changes are intended to delight investors with revitalized capabilities.A quick glance at the asset growth in the investment management industry over the past nine years shows steady growtha sign of health and stability.However,the details seem to tell a more complicated story.The mix of investments has changed dramatically over the past 10 years(figure 1).Passive funds are now the largest portion of the total US fund assets,as asset growth has followed performance.Passive funds have outperformed active funds on average,with the exception of PE,which has outperformed and grown assets steadily over the past nine years(figure 1),even with regular PE fund liquidations.These shifts coincide with an interesting global economic backdrop.While the US economy continues its record expansion,major countries in Europe may already be in recession,and Chinas growth slowdown is likely to continue.2 A Brexit deal adds to the confusion,with investment managers executing their contingency plans.European regulators and investment hubs in Luxembourg,Dublin,Frankfurt,and Paris also continue to work on a smooth Brexit transition for investment managers.3 In spite of the overall steady industry growth,the pressures faced by long-only investment managers,PE managers,and hedge funds have remained constant for the past several years.The cumulative effect of fee pressure,a shift to passive investments,and concentration of success in gathering assets is driving many firms to continue to take bolder actions to find growth,operate efficiently,and engage customers.In 2020,many alternative and long-only investment managers alike could cross boundaries and leave their comfort zones.Externally,firms may discover finding investors in new demographic segments or geographies is the most effective path to asset growth.2020:Crossing boundariesCrossing boundaries for profitable growth4Methodology for performance and AUM chart:1.US passive funds:Passive domestic funds comprise AUMs for 1940 Act Index ETFs(domestic and global equity,bonds,and commodity)and index mutual funds(domestic and global equity,and hybrid and bond)sourced from ICI Factbook 2019.S&P 500 Index has been used as the proxy for passive fund performance.S&P 500 Index returns have been sourced from one-year performance for S&P 500 provided in SPIVA Year-End US Scorecard reports for the years 20092018.2.US active funds:Active domestic AUM comprises actively managed mutual funds(domestic and global equity,and hybrid and bond)and 1940 Act Actively Managed ETFs sourced from ICI Factbook 2019.US Domestic Active Funds(Equal-Weighted)returns have been sourced from one-year performance for all domestic funds provided in SPIVA Year-End US Scorecard reports for the years 20092018.3.US private capital:US private capital AUM and performance data has been sourced from Preqin.AUM is the sum of unrealized value and dry powder.Performance looks at one-year rolling returns.4.North American hedge funds:North American hedge funds AUM and performance data has been sourced from Eurekahedge North American Funds Key Trends March 2019 report.Hedge fund performance represents Eurekahedge North American Hedge Fund Index return,which is an equally weighted index of 536 constituent funds.Note:The size of the bubble indicates 2018 AUM of the asset class in US$trillions.Sources:ICI Factbook 2019,Eurekahedge,Preqin,S&P Global Market Intelligence.Deloitte Insights| under management CAGRPerformance CAGR$1.5$11.4$3.2$6.6FIGURE 1Over the last decade,assets have moved into passive funds while private equity continues to outperformUS funds asset growth and performance,200918US passive funds US private capital US active funds North American hedge funds2020 investment management outlook5Finding growth with markets and productsLAST YEAR,OUR 2019 outlook highlighted that some firms were likely to push their boundaries with bold actions such as being aggressive in acquiring new capabilities and embracing emerging technologies in search of growth.In many ways they did.Investment management firms continue to use M&A activity to bolt on new capabilities,while developing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence(AI)and alternative data continue to be at the forefront of strategic plans.4 In 2020 the aggressiveness is expected to progress,and significant boundaries could be crossed,such as:PE firms fueling growth through permanent capital pools and investment management firms opening new market segments through technology.Lets analyze growth through the lens of a two-by-two growth matrix.The four categories are based on the degree to which new markets or products are developed.Using this framework,the four quadrants are:market development,diversification,market expansion,and product development(figure 2).Investment management firms find different paths to success,and many will follow one or more that lead to growth in new areas or through enhanced capabilities.Each quadrant of the matrix presents different challenges to overcome.This section digs deeper to better understand the paths investment managers are expected to take to find growth in 2020.Source:Deloitte Center for Financial Services analysis.MarketProductMarket expansionMarket developmentProduct developmentDiversificationExistingCurrentNewNew Tilt toward Asia Alternatives going mainstream Customer solutions enabled by technology Mergers and acquisitions Vertical integration Improvements in data analytics and technology Enhancements in customer experience Permanent capital pools Opportunity zone funds Rise of thematic fundsFIGURE 2Making the right growth choices:Investment managers make their growth choices for both the short-and long-term horizonsMarket and product development growth alternativesCrossing boundaries for profitable growth6Diversification:Offering new products in new marketsInvestment managers continue to rely on mergers and acquisitions(M&A)to diversify product offerings and geographic presence.Over the last five years,achieving scale and adding new capabilities were the key objectives for most investment manager M&A.In fact,M&A transactions between investment managers touched a high in 2018.5 Deal activity continues to remain strong from a bolt-on capabilities perspective,while merger-of-equals transactions are slower to transpire.Even when M&A are the right strategic choice for both firms,desired results are often not achieved due to suboptimal postmerger integration.6 From a geographic diversification perspective,most European firms have been looking to expand into Asia,while many US-based investment managers have focused on increasing their presence in both Europe and Asia.Firms in North America and Europe account for 80 percent of M&A activity within the investment management industry and are driving continued high levels of activity(figure 3).This trend highlights the importance of inorganic growth in these mature markets to boost scale and broaden product lines into new asset classes.7 Brookfield Asset Managements recent acquisition of a majority stake in Oaktree Capital Management to create an alternative giant is a good example.The combined business is expected to have US$475 billion in AUM,offering a diversified suite of private investments including debt,equity,infrastructure,and real estate funds.8*Indicates deals through July of each year.Note:RoW(rest of world)includes South America and Africa.Source:Deloitte Center for Financial Services analysis of M&A data sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence.Deloitte Insights| 191715225 141916023 191745924291345428 14394478475476449244272FIGURE 3The need for scale is clearly visible in North America,which accounts for half of the entire or majority stake acquisition deals for investment managers in 2019Investment management industry M&A activity by geography,number of M&A dealsNorth America Europe Asia Australia RoW2020 investment management outlook7M&A activity in the industry permeates the entire investment management ecosystem.Firms are striving to integrate vertically and to offer clients solutions across the investment value chain,from financial data to advisory services and alternative investments.These“value chain”mergers may unlock growth for investment managers through the development of a vertically integrated portfolio of services.Principal Financial obtained institutional trust and custody service offerings for the nonretirement market through its acquisition of Wells Fargos Institutional Retirement and Trust business.Principal Financial also used the transaction to attain scale by doubling the size of its US retirement business and to bring on key industry talent.9 Value chain M&A will likely increase over the coming year as firms expand client service offerings and geographical footprint.WINNING THROUGH DIVERSIFICATIONM&A can be a strong path to immediately achieving scale and serving new clients,but they are not a panacea.10 Often when investment management M&A fail to achieve the expected value,it can be attributed to integration issues.11 When front,middle,and back offices are spread across geographies,managing integration across culture,talent,and technology is difficult.Some firms will likely implement an integration management office(IMO)to develop a clear integration plan and control the information flow between workstreams and senior management.12 Thoughtful planning for M&A integration that begins in the transaction phase will emerge as a leading practice in 2020.Selecting the right strategic partners to fulfill growth requirements and executing with excellence on the postmerger integration plan will likely differentiate the exceptional firms taking this approach.Market development:Bringing existing products and services to new investorsFinding new markets and investors for existing products is an important component of profitable growth for investment management firms.Investment managers can find new market opportunities by exploring new geographies,scanning(or driving)regulatory changes,and by deploying new technologies.Asia is one such target for investment managers.Major demographic shifts are taking place in the region,which accounts for 62 percent of the worlds millennials as well as 63 percent of the worlds aging workforce(aged between 50 and 60 years as of 2019).13 Investment managers,including PE firms,are aiming to provide investment solutions for these two varied investor segments.The estimated opportunity for public funds in China will surpass US$2.6 trillion AUM in 2020.14 The regulatory climate for investment management firms to enter China improved several times over 2019.15 However,the regions diversity tends to pose unique challenges for foreign investment management firms,including cultural,economic,geopolitical,and regulatory risk.This emerging customer segment in Asia paints a picture of the challenges that come with enormous growth potential.On the regulatory front,supporting capital formation,innovation,and levelling the playing field between large and small investment advisers is a focus.In addition,allowing retail investors to gain access to alternative investments is a market Firms are striving to integrate vertically and to offer clients solutions across the investment value chain,from financial data to advisory services and alternative investments.Crossing boundaries for profitable growth8Note:RoW includes South America and Africa.Aging workforce population:between 50 to 60 years old.Percentages may not total 100 percent due to rounding.Sources:Deloitte Center for Financial Services analysis of population data from United Nations,Department of Economic and Social Affairs,Population Division(2019).World Population Prospects 2019,Online Edition.Rev.1,made available under the Creative Commons license https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/(accessed on October 1,2019).Deloitte Insights| POPULATION:1.42 BILLION62%22%9%7%Aging workforceTOTAL POPULATION:0.88 BILLION1%63%13%9%15%FIGURE 4Asian millennials and aging workforce present a market development opportunity for investment managers Global population by geographic region,2019North America Europe Asia Australia RoWdevelopment opportunity.In December 2018,investment management firms and industry repr