2020年北美移动经济报告.pdf

Copyright 2020 GSM AssociationNorth America 2020The Mobile EconomyContentsExecutive summary2The mobile market in numbers101.1A new decade of progress111.2Total subscribers to surpass 340 million by 2025121.3The transition from 4G to 5G131.4Evolution of the digital consumer141.5Covid-19 adds uncertainty to the financial outlook16Key trends shaping the digital landscape182.15G:one year on192.2Telco of the future:new technologies,new revenues202.3IoT:honing in on the private networks opportunity22Mobiles contribution to economic growth and social progress 243.1Mobiles contribution to economic growth253.2The North American mobile industrys response to Covid-19283.3Driving social impact through mobile:spotlight on health and education30Policies to accelerate digital development324.1 Improving network performance and reach334.2 Setting spectrum policy for 5G344.3 Protecting consumers from nuisance calls341234Executive SummaryConnectivity has never been more importantMost of North America has been subject to lockdown measures at some point in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic.During this time,mobile has proved crucial in keeping individuals safe and economies functioning.For example,mobile operators helped to disseminate vital information to keep citizens informed,allowed students to learn remotely and enabled large parts of the workforce to continue working productively throughout the crisis.Mobile networks have held up well,rising to the challenge of keeping individuals and businesses connected during the pandemic,despite changes in data consumption patterns.This reflects the significant investments made by operators over a number of years to provide additional network capacity,which was supported by moves at the start of the pandemic to temporarily bolster spectrum holdings.The Mobile Economy North America 2020Executive Summary2Operators remain committed to 5G amid pandemic5G is poised to enable a new era of connectivity,bringing new services and increased efficiency across industries.Operators in North America continue to be among the world leaders when it comes to 5G deployment.This can be seen by the rollout of nationwide 5G in the US,enabled by spectrum refarming and dynamic spectrum sharing(DSS).Operators in the region are also advancing with standalone 5G deployments,which will be key to bringing many of the enhanced,latency-sensitive 5G use cases to market.Although the rate of 5G adoption was lower than initially expected in the first half of 2020 because of the pandemic,this is likely to be a blip.North America will reach 100 million 5G connections in 2022,driven by continued network investments from operators and the expanding range of 5G smartphones at varying price points.By 2025,North America will have become the first region where 5G accounts for more than 50%of total connections.Network innovation on the rise as the 5G era gets underwayAlongside 5G rollouts,operators in North America are pursuing ambitious network transformation strategies.At the heart of these is the use of IT technologies in the network.For example,operators are looking to increase network automation and migrate support for network segments to the cloud.This could provide a chance for new product or technology vendors to gain a foothold.Network transformation has the potential to reshape the operator cost base and accelerate service innovation.This could prove important as operators seek to capture new revenues in areas such as private networks,in which financial services,healthcare and manufacturing are likely to be among the early target segments for operators.The Mobile Economy North America 2020Executive Summary3Mobile industry drives social impact and contributes to economic growth The mobile industry has engaged with businesses and governments on initiatives to alleviate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.Mobile operators and other industry players have supported the most vulnerable in society during the pandemic while also contributing to economic recovery efforts e.g.by providing increased data allowances for customers and giving free equipment to schools and students.Mobile technologies and services generated 4.8%of GDP in North America in 2019,a contribution that amounted to over$1 trillion of economic value added.In the same year,the mobile ecosystem also supported more than 2 million jobs(directly and indirectly)and made a substantial contribution to the funding of the public sector,with almost$100 billion raised through taxation.The Mobile Economy North America 2020Executive Summary4Policy actions to accelerate digital development Mobile connectivity requires continuous investment by operators whether through densification in cities or extending coverage in rural areas to keep up with demand and provide the service that consumers and businesses expect.Governments and regulators can take steps to facilitate network deployment and expansion,such as by simplifying and standardising planning procedures and regulations for site acquisition.Operators also need timely access to the right amount and type of spectrum to encourage long-term investments.In particular,5G networks need significant amounts of new spectrum across low-(sub-1 GHz),mid-(16 GHz)and high-bands(above 6 GHz).Without this,it will not be possible to deliver 5G services that provide widespread coverage and support all potential 5G use cases.The Mobile Economy North America 2020Executive Summary5UNIQUE MOBILE SUBSCRIBERSMOBILE INTERNET USERS324m342m290m20192019323m800,000SIM CONNECTIONS403m2019426mExcluding licensed cellular IoTSMARTPHONES2019EMPLOYMENT4G2019Excluding licensed cellular IoTof total connectionsExcluding licensed cellular IoTjobs directly supported by the mobile ecosystem+1.3m indirect jobs2025202520252025OPERATOR REVENUESAND INVESTMENT$277bn$294bn2019Operator capex of$337 billion for the period 20192025 Operator revenuesOperator revenues20252019-2025CAGR:0.9%Penetration Rate(%of population)83%Mobile Economy North America 2019-2025CAGR:1.8%Penetration Rate(%of population)2019-2025CAGR:0.9%Penetration Rate(%of population)4.8%85%80%76%104%106%800,000SIM CONNECTIONS403m2019426mExcluding licensed cellular IoTSMARTPHONES2019EMPLOYMENT4G2019Excluding licensed cellular IoTof total connectionsExcluding licensed cellular IoTjobs directly supported by the mobile ecosystem+1.3m indirect jobs2025202520252025OPERATOR REVENUESAND INVESTMENT$277bn$294bn2019Operator capex of$337 billion for the period 20192025 Operator revenuesOperator revenues202520192025Excluding licensed cellular IoT%of totalconnections83%83%92%2019-2025CAGR:1.8%Penetration Rate(%of population)2019-2025CAGR:0.9%Penetration Rate(%of population)INTERNET OF THINGSTotal connectionsTotal connections2.8bn5.1bn20252019$1.01tn2019MOBILE INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTION TO GDP2019PUBLIC FUNDING$98bnMobile ecosystem contribution to public funding(before regulatory and spectrum fees)5Gof total connections2019202551%1%43%of GDP4.8%*Percentage of total connectionsNote:totals may not add up due to roundingDefining the CaribbeanCountries included:Anguilla;Antigua and Barbuda;Aruba;Bahamas;Barbados;Bermuda;Cayman Islands;Curacao;Dominica;Grenada;Guadeloupe;Haiti;Jamaica;Martinique;Montserrat;Puerto Rico;Saint Kitts and Nevis;Saint Lucia;Saint Pierre and Miquelon;Saint Vincent and the Grenadines;Trinidad and Tobago;Turks and Caicos Islands;British Virgin Islands;US Virgin IslandsCanada4G5G2G3G2025SMARTPHONE ADOPTIONSUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX*6%49%1%45%1%21%78%201990%2019202581%81%2019202578%4G5G2G3G2025SMARTPHONE ADOPTIONSUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX*The Caribbean53%11%1%36%201940%47%13%73%2019202559%71%2019202567%USTECHNOLOGY MIX*4G5G2G3G2025SMARTPHONE ADOPTIONSUBSCRIBER PENETRATION9%87%43%2%55%93%2019202585%86%2019202585%2019 4%1%The Mobile Economy North America 2020Executive Summary8The Mobile Economy North America 2020Executive Summary901The mobile market in numbers202020212022202320242025MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS330 million mobile subscribers85%of the population subscribe to mobileMOBILE INTERNET USERS300 million mobile internet subscribers80%of the population subscribe to mobile internet servicesCONNECTIONS410 million mobile connections420 million mobile connections3G3G accounts for 10%of total connections3G accounts for 5%of total connections4G4G adoption peaks at almost 350 million connections4G connections drop below 200 million5G5G debuts in CanadaOver 100 million mobile 5G connections5G accounts for over 50%of connections SMARTPHONES350 million smartphone connectionsSmartphone adoption reaches 90%IoT200 million licensed cellular IoT connections400 million licensed cellular IoT connectionsMilestones for the mobile industry in North America in the next five yearsSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 11.1 A new decade of progressThe mobile market in numbers11The Mobile Economy North America 2020By 2025,there will be an additional 18 million subscribers in North AmericaSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 2The US and Canada are among the world leaders in terms of unique subscriber penetration,while mobile adoption will continue to rise in the CaribbeanSource:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 31.2 Total subscribers to surpass 340 million by 2025324342201920202021202220232024202585%83%78%87%87%81%85%86%82%84%67%71%85%86%89%88%USCanadaCaribbeanChinaJapanSouth KoreaUK2019Unique subscribers(million)2025Penetration(%of population)The mobile market in numbers12The Mobile Economy North America 20204G will continue to dominate in North America in the early 2020s,before being overtaken by 5G in 2025Source:GSMA IntelligenceFigure 41.3 The transition from 4G to 5G5G4G3G2G%of connections(excluding licensed cellular IoT)202020212022202320242025100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2019The mobile market in numbers13The Mobile Economy North America 20205G adoption in North America is expected to rise faster than before,following a near-term slowdown because of Covid-19Figure 5Connections,millionSource:GSMA Intelligence5G take-up is likely to suffer in the short term from slower sales of 5G smartphones due to the shift to larger-screen devices(such as TVs and laptops)during lockdown and the drop in consumer confidence as a result of economic uncertainty.However,5G adoption will rebound quickly,driven by the availability of 5G smartphones at different price points and continued network investment by operators.1.4 Evolution of the digital consumerFaster networks,combined with rising adoption of unlimited data plans,allow subscribers in North America to access a wide range of entertainment services on their smartphones.For example,41%of US subscribers watched paid-for online TV subscription services on their smartphones at least once per month in 2019,up from 27%in 2018.1 This can in part be attributed to the content bundling strategies of US operators.AT&T includes HBO Max as part of selected data plans,and Verizon(Disney+)and T-Mobile(Netflix)offer similar deals as part of their respective packages.The next wave of partnerships could be between operators and gaming companies.While almost 60%of subscribers in the US and Canada play free games on their smartphones,less than 30%actually pay for mobile games.2 Cloud gaming could change that by aggregating content and bypassing the traditional mode of distribution in favour of streaming over the internet.For operators,this presents a chance to form new distribution agreements(seen by Sprints collaboration with Hatch),which create new revenue sharing opportunities and a chance to showcase a key 5G use case to consumers.3 1.GSMA Intelligence Consumers in Focus Survey 20192.Ibid3.Gaming:up in the air,GSMA Intelligence,202020192020202120222023202420252176010414117520521054103143181218Pre-Covid-19 forecastRevised forecastThe mobile market in numbers14The Mobile Economy North America 2020 x5.3By 2025,mobile data consumption in North America will grow by more than five timesFigure 6Source:Ericsson Mobility Report,2020(GB per subscriber per month)Mobile data traffic per smartphone45202520198.5Consumers are not only changing what they do on their smartphones but also how they buy smartphones.Although in-store transactions are still the largest channel for smartphone sales,online sales are not far behind.Most operators predict growth in online smartphone sales over the next two years,with this trend heightened by the temporary closure of retail stores during the Covid-19 pandemic.4 The move to online channels could present opportunities for operators to improve margins and develop more effective ways to help consumers with their enquiries.4.Device portfolios and strategies in the 5G era,GSMA Intelligence,2020The mobile market in numbers15The Mobile Economy North America 2020Smartphone sales moving online in North AmericaFigure 7Source:GSMA Intelligence Operator Device Survey 20201.5 Covid-19 adds uncertainty to the financial outlook The implementation of lockdown measures and the associated pauses in economic activity are projected to push many economies into recession.In its June projections this year,the IMF predicted that GDP for the US and Canada will decline in 2020 by 8.4%and 8.0%respectively.This shows that a high level of uncertainty is likely to remain throughout 2020,which will serve to reduce consumer and enterprise spend.Financial pressures on the mobile industry will be exacerbated by the pullback in spend,albeit not as deeply compared with some other sectors.Despite the expected decline in mobile revenue in North America for 2020,operators remain committed to network spending.For example,Verizon expects to spend$17.518.5 billion in 2020,up from its prior forecast of$1718 billion,as it accelerates 5G investments during the pandemic.5 Meanwhile,T-Mobile and Sprint will commence their network integration efforts,and Dish Network will begin its 5G rollout.Thinking about your smartphone portfolio,please indicate the approximate proportion sold through each channel(%of respondents)5.“Verizon boosts network spend”,Mobile World Live,2020 34%38%12%13%4%Direct in store Direct onlineThird party generalist (e.g.grocery stores)Third party specialist (e.g.Best Buy)OtherThe mobile market in numbers16The Mobile Economy North America 2020Covid-19 will take its toll on operator revenue growth in the short term;2022 will see a recovery,followed by solid growth out to 2025Figure 8Source:GSMA IntelligenceBillion2019202020212022202320242025$277$268$268$276$283$289$2941%-3%0%3%2%2%2%Annual growthRevenueOperators commit to 5G spending,despite the Covid-19 pandemicFigure 9Source:GSMA IntelligenceCapex(billion)$47$48$44$46$47$48$48$217%17%17%17%17%16%15%$1$1$1$1$1$120192020202120222023202420255GNon-5GCapex to revenue(%)20192025 spend on 5G$328bnThe mobile market in numbers17The Mobile Economy North America 202002Key trends shaping the digital landscapeThe Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 20202.1 5G:one year on More than a year after the first 5G launches in North America,operators in the region continue to make strong pr