全球投资策略:2050年实现净零排放的途径.pdf
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1、Disclosures&Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Asset/SubcategoryMarch 2021ESG&Climate Change|GlobalFuture FrontiersPlay interview withAshim PaunESG&Climate ChangeGlobalMarch
2、2021By:Ashim Paun,Sriharsha Pappu,Wai-Shin Chan,Tarek Soliman and the Global Research team Future FrontiersThe pathway towards net-zeroTo achieve the global warming targets agreed in the Paris Agreementthe world needs to cut emissions rapidlyOur global decarbonisation scenario looks at how cleaner p
3、ower,transport,buildings and industry can reduce the emissions gap to net-zero by 81%by 2050 1 ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 Future Frontiers Atmospheric carbon continues to rise,as we emit more greenhouse gases each year.Even the lockdowns of 2020 only resulted in around a 7%temporary annual
4、 drop.We have already experienced 1.2oC warming since pre-industrial times,and the impacts of this are worsening.As governments,companies and investors around the world begin to target net-zero emissions,we look across sectors and ask a question:How can the deep,economy-wide transition necessary for
5、 this level of decarbonisation be achieved?Two years ago,in The second frontier Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change(January 2019),we looked at how the focus so far has been on replacing fossil fuels in power generation.As we argued then and now,the transport sector follows-th
6、e second major step is to replace the internal combustion engine.In this new report,we go much further,and look at future frontiers for decarbonisation,moving beyond power and cars to consider other clean transport modes,greener buildings and low-carbon industry.-81%Emissions reduction vs BAU in our
7、 Future Frontiers scenario We begin with a discussion of emissions in the context of net-zero targets,and we look at how major economies are positioning to deliver on their ambition,as well as what future catalysts may drive decarbonisation.Four subsequent sections then describe how we project radic
8、al pathways for decarbonisation across these four major emitting sectors:power,transport,buildings and industry.We aggregate these four pathways to create our Future Frontiers Scenario.Overall,these decarbonisation pathways across sectors reduce total emissions by 81%by 2050,vs a business-as-usual o
9、utlook Currently,we are not on track to meet the maximum warming targets of the Paris Agreement.The pathway we explore in this report is extremely challenging it exhausts a lot of the technological options currently available,in some areas requires further innovation and to compound this,there remai
10、n many policy gaps to stimulate the scale-up we need for removing emissions fast across a number of sectors.Additionally,some materials may prove to be scarce until adequate reserves or alternatives are found.Executive Summary Going beyond the first steps of decarbonisation Aggregating sectoral deca
11、rbonisation pathways On the wrong pathway ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 2 Yet we believe that catalysts continue to stack up.For every disappointment in the rate of energy transition,other areas bring surprises on the upside.Now we need major economies to show energy transition leadership,and
12、 all countries need to increase their ambition and deliver on their plans.We see investors all around the world who are seeking to ensure that they are aligning the funds they manage with a low-carbon energy transition.And they fully understand that the transition goes well beyond the cleantech sect
13、ors they may have traditionally invested in,focussed on renewable power technologies in particular.So we believe that this report can help investors to shape their portfolio decarbonisation strategies,by focussing on the major sectors which will be the priority for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
14、via energy consumption and other industrial processes.Responsible investment frameworks can play a crucial role in driving companies to deploy resources towards lower carbon solutions-for their own long-term viability.Current levels of climate ambition are very far from putting us on a pathway that
15、will meet our Paris Agreement goals Patricia Espinosa,Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change,March 2021 2050 is only a generation away,not long in terms of human history to accomplish such a radical transformation as we need to protect our world,its human populations and all the systems we depend
16、upon from dangerous,runaway climate change.But in terms of politics,policy,technological advances and economics,29 years is a long time.There are many,many things that we can achieve and change in that time.It is still possible to keep global warming to within less dangerous boundaries,but we need t
17、o act now and act radically to achieve this.but there is progress Investors are playing a key role and its not too late We acknowledge the contribution of Abhishek Kumar and Anushua Chowdhury,climate change analysts,Bangalore,in the preparation of this report 3 ESG&Climate Change Global March 2021 F
18、uture Frontiers:The pathway to net-zero in 2050 Source:UNEP,HSBC;Note:Our Future Frontiers Scenario focuses on energy emissions,as well as emissions from non-energy industrial processes.Significant emitting sectors important to the energy transition which we do not cover include waste generation and
19、 management,water utilities,agriculture and forestry;GtCO2e refers to gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent;The United Nations Environment Programmes(UNEP)Current Policy Scenario is used as business-as-usual emissions,where no further policy measures are taken to limit emissions beyond those alrea
20、dy in place;Emissions from agriculture,waste and LUCF are capped at 2019 levels through to 2050 in our Future Frontiers scenario;Emissions reduction from the buildings sector versus 2019 level is shown at 88%,but can be described as a reduction of 96%by including indirect emissions,via decarbonised
21、power.Green buildings Retrofitting in existing buildings and green new builds increase energy efficiency,as oil and gas are replaced by electricity and hydrogen as energy sourcesLow-carbon Industry A disparate sector requiring diverse solutions,such as materials efficiency and recycling,electrificat
22、ion,carbon capture and hydrogen reduce emissions from metals&mining,chemicals,cement,oil&gas and F-gasesClean power generation Coal and natural gas phased out by 2035 in developed markets,and mostly by 2050 in the rest of the world,with renewables growing rapidly,along with some nuclear,carbon captu
23、re and storageCleaner transport Diesel and gasoline make way for batteries and fuel cells in road transport by 2040,with global regulation limiting shipping and aviation emissionsReduction in emissions vs 2019 levelsOur Future Frontiers Scenario shows how it is possible to close the gap between wher
24、e we are headed and net-zero emissions by 81%by 2050Low-carbon industry:-80%Clean power:-100%Cleaner transport:-81%Green buildings:-88%-23 GtCO2e-23 GtCO2e-12 GtCO2e-5 GtCO2e03060902019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 20472050GtCO2eFalling emissions under HSBC Future Frontiers ScenarioRising emissions
25、 under UNEP Current Policy Scenario Our scenario sees 63 GtCO2e removal from across energy consuming sectors and industrial processes.Sectors including waste generation and management,water utilities,agriculture and forestry will also require material decarbonisation to close the remaining 16 GtCO2e
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