物联网芯片行业深度报告.pdf
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1、FoundationMMorgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research.Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research
2、 as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section,located at the end of this report.+=Analysts employed by non-U.S.affiliates are not registered with FINRA,may not be associated persons of the member
3、 and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.Greater China Technology SemiconductorsIoT Semis Welcome to the Wireless World We believe short-range wireless communication technology
4、is an attractive way to play the IoT uptrend.We expect Bluetooth to dominate on further spec migration,with the market set to double by 2025.We view Bestechnic as the key proxy,but the trend should also benefit Realtek and Mediatek.April 22,2021 09:01 PM GMTFoundationMMorgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+D
5、aniel Yen,CFAEquity Analyst+886 2 2730-2863Daniel.Y Contributors Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Charlie ChanEquity Analyst+886 2 2730-1725Charlie.CMorgan Stanley&Co.LLCCraig HettenbachEquity Analyst+1 212 761-6435Craig.HMorgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Sharon ShihEquity Analyst+886 2 2730-2865Sharon.SMo
6、rgan Stanley Asia Limited+Andy Meng,CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-7689Andy.MMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+Daisy Dai,CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-7310Daisy.DMorgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Ray Wu,CFAEquity Analyst+886 2 2730-2871Ray.WMorgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+Dylan LiuResearch Associate+886 2 2730-1723Dyl
7、an.LFoundationMGreater China Technology SemiconductorsIoT Semis Welcome to the Wireless World We believe short-range wireless communication technology is an attractive way to play the IoT uptrend.We expect Bluetooth to dominate on further spec migration,with the market set to double by 2025.We view
8、Bestechnic as the key proxy,but the trend should also benefit Realtek and Mediatek.IoT.not a buzzword anymore:The Internet of Things is playing an increasingly important role in our daily lives.Our consumer team,led by Lillian Lou,expects Chinas smart home appliances market to grow 12%annually,drivi
9、ng penetration from 20%now to 100%by 2030.Our downstream tech analyst,Sharon Shih,expects the industrial IoT to take off in China as the government strives to increase effi-ciency by mapping out a detailed IIoT ecosystem development plan through 2025.Globally,we believe the number of IoT devices wil
10、l reach 2.1 billion by then,up from 1.2bn now,implying 11%annual growth.Wireless communication is the key enabler of IoT,from longer and short range:What is enabling the IoTs growth is wireless com-munication technology.Cellular networks cover longer-range data communications and are mostly used by
11、smartphones.Wi-Fi tech-nology covers the mid-range and complements 5G networks(see our Wi-Fi 6 report).However,both 5G and Wi-Fi are more complex and consume more power than short-range communication devices.Some applications,therefore,are more suited to short-range com-munications,such as wireless
12、earbuds,location services,smart appli-ances,and wearables.We thus believe there will be increasing demand for short-range communication technology to complement the 5G and Wi-Fi ramp.Bluetooth to dominate short-range wireless communications,with a US$3bn TAM by 2025:Several short-range communication
13、 technologies have tried to challenge Bluetooths position,with lim-ited success.The most recent is ultra-wide band(UWB)technology,first adopted in Apples iPhone 11,which uses its own U1 chip to pro-vide location services.However,there has not been much adoption of this technology since then as the e
14、cosystem is not comprehensive and there has been another upgrade to Bluetooth specs.We believe Bluetooth will continue to dominate given features like audio streaming,location services,and simple data transfers,as well as migration to BT5.2).We expect the market for Bluetooth chips to double to US$2
15、.8bn by 2025 from US$1.4bn now.Stock implications:We initiate on Bestechnic at OW with a price target of Rmb344,reiterate our OW ratings on Realtek and Mediatek,and raise our Realtek price target to a Street-high of NT$666.Bestechnic is a design house and the Bluetooth leader in China,with more than
16、 80%revenue exposure to Bluetooth-related products.We believe the Street is too concerned about the slow-down of truly wireless stereo(TWS)Bluetooth earbuds and product concentration risk.We see ample room for the company to grow in both the TWS earbud market and the Bluetooth Low Energy System on C
17、hip(BLE SoC)market,and we estimate the companys earnings will increase by 50%annually through 2023.We believe the stock will trade up to 71x our 2022 EPS from the current 55x,justified by strong earnings growth and a low PEG premium vs.China IC design peers.Separately,we lift our Realtek price targe
18、t to NT$666 given stronger IoT semiconductor growth and pricing increases from 3Q21.Exhibit 1:Whats changedPrice UpsideNewOldNewOldClose%688608.SSBESO344.0 264.1830%2379.TWRealtekOO666.0 600.00505.0032%TickerCompanyRatingPrice TargetSource:Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Note:Prices in the report
19、are as of the market close on April 20,2021,unless otherwise indicated.Prices above are in local currency.Industry ViewGreater China Technology Semiconductors In-LineFoundationM4 Contents 5The Story in Charts 6Order of Preference 7IoT is triggering growth in wireless technologies;Bestechnic is a pur
20、e proxy in Greater China18Debate#1:Could 5G and Wi-Fi 6 replace short-range wireless communication?22Debate#2:Can Bluetooth continue to dominate?27Debate#3:Will Bluetooth SoC be commoditized?33Bestechnic(BES;688608.SS):A good IoT proxy;initiate at OW36Bestechnic Financial Summary37Bestechnic A quali
21、ty IoT proxy41Investment Positives and Concerns42Bestechnic:Earnings outlook43Bestechnic:Valuation Methodology45Bestechnic:Company Profile48 Realtek Estimate Revisions 49 Realtek Valuation Methodology50 Realtek Financial Summary53MediaTek Financial Summary FoundationMMorgan Stanley Research5Exhibit
22、2:We expect the number of IoT devices globally to increase over the next five years 05001,0001,5002,0002,500201520162017201820192020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025eIoT devices(mn unit shipment)Source:IDC,Morgan Stanley Research estimates.The Story in Charts Exhibit 3:Market size of Chinas IoT-enabled
23、 smart home appliances Source:iResearch,All View Cloud(AVC),Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 4:Bluetooth audio and BLE SoC TAM to double1,376 2,804 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00020202025eBluetooth audio and BLE SoC TAM(USD mn)Source:Gartner,Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 6:We expe
24、ct Bestechnic to record a 46%revenue CAGR through 2023 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500201920202021e2022e2023eBES Rev(Rmb mn)Source:Company data,Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 5:Bluetooth will continue to dominate UWB and Zigbee0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02018201920202021e2022e2023e2024e202
25、5eDevice shipment(bn unit)BluetoothZigbeeUWBSource:Bluetooth SIG,Zigbee Alliance,UWB Alliance,Morgan Stanley Research estimates.Exhibit 7:IoT revenue contribution in 2020 Bestechnic is the key proxy in Greater China semis 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%BESSilicon LabsSynapticsRealtekMediatekIoT exposu
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