2030年adas及自动驾驶市场发展趋势.pdf
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1、20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx1ADAS and autonomousdriving market trendsto 2030Webinar|November 24,202120211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx2We are looking forward to our discussion todayDr.Wolfgang BernhartSenior PartnerStuttgartEmail:Mobile:+49 160 744 7421ManuelYoonPrincip
2、alFrankfurtEmail:Mobile:+49 160 744 6174Source:Roland Berger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx3When talking about ADAS and AD,all vehicle types can be equipped with the according technology and address customer-specific use casesMoving peoplePrivate autonomous carsRobotaxis(city center&r
3、ural area)Regional&long-haul busPrivately-owned cars with AD functionality as additional equipmentMass transport and people mover,potentially part of public transportVehicles may be regular cars or pods,in urban city centers or rural areasMoving goodsLCVs/last-mile roadAutonomous long-haul trucksDel
4、ivery robots&dronesTransporters for package distribution used to deliver packages to end customer24 h/7 operation of trucks which deliver goods aiming for dock-to-dock use caseCurb-side road delivery of small packages/productsSource:Roland BergerA.ADAS development 2020-202520211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_
5、2030_Webinar_vf.pptx5Legislation combined with safety ratings are main drivers of ADAS systems uptake besides customer pull for convenienceOverview of global safety legislation and ratings for passenger carsSource:Desk research,Roland Berger AEB car-to-car Reversing detection Lane keeping Intelligen
6、t speed assists AEB car-to-pedestrian AEB car-to-cyclist Advanced driver distraction warning LegislationADAS systems penetrationSafety ratings AEB/AES pedestrian,cyclist AEB JA car-to-car,PTW Lane support system PTW AEB head-on Driver monitoring V2X 20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx6201
7、82019202020212022202320242025AEB Head-onRoadmap 2020Mobile progressive deformable barrierGrading of AD functionsRescue,extrication and safetyAEB VRU cyclistFar-side protectionAEB Junction&CrossingAEB VRU pedestrian Back-overAutomatic emergency steeringRoadmap 2025 ADChild presence detectionV2XDriver
8、 monitoringWhiplash/Rear-end crash protectionRoadmap 2025 Safety ratingRevised subsystem for pedestrian&cyclistEU NCAP sets a specific roadmap for testing of safety until 2025 Most AEB requirements can only be fulfilled with a front cameraEU NCAP roadmap 2018-2025Communication only based on first id
9、easProposal to release updates out of phase with overall ratingImplementationProtocol releaseStart New AEB features require higher performance of systems and may only be achieved with a front camera and/or fusion of camera and radar Initial NCAP 2022-2024 timetable has been delayed by one year to 20
10、23-2025Source:Xilinx,Roland Berger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx7For the next years,L2/L2+features are becoming most important for ADAS commercialization as L3 legislation is delayed and costs are higherDefinition of levels of autonomy Blind spot detector Lane departure warningL0.War
11、ning information Automatic emer-gency braking Adaptive cruise control Lane keep assistL1.Driver assistance Cruise control(adaptive cruise control with lane keep assist in parallel)L2.Partial automation Advanced cruise control(adaptive cruise control with lane change assist in parallel)L2+.Combined p
12、artial autom.ADASADDe-emphasis of L3 in favor of L2+expectedUse caseConsumer vehiclesRobotaxi+Consumer vehiclesLegalRegulation clear Driver obligationLegislation delayedMarketCurrent focus of commercialization(Compliance+NCAP rating)Reasonable costMobility cases Higher costs acceptableNiche,2025+Hig
13、hway pilot with automatic lane changes(no human inter-action from exit to exit and full monitoring of environment)L3.Conditional automation Fully automated driving in somesituations without need for human as fallback(chauffeur mode)L4.High automationL5.Full automation Fully autonomousz.z.zSource:SAE
14、 Int.,J3016;fka;Roland Berger20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx8In the next five years,it is expected that both L2/L2+market penetration will increase whereas no autonomy/L0 are likely to shrink8%19%20195%34%2%44%15%1%46%25%202529%5%24%29%11%20301068997+1.6%Market penetration rates per l
15、evel of autonomy,light-duty vehicles m of vehicles,%Source:Roland BergerADAS L4ADAS L1ADAS L3ADAS L2+/+No ADASADAS L2ADAS L020211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx9ADAS/AD features require a range of sensors of which especially cameras and radars will see a strong volume increase in the comin
16、g yearsCornerradarCornerradarSurround view cameraParking cameraFront radarSurround view cameraDriver monitoringADAS DCUNight visionUltrasonicLIDARFrontcameraCornerradarCornerradarIllustrativeOverview of automotive sensors in vehicleSource:Roland BergerB.Medium-term ADAS development 2025-203020211124
17、_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx11Post-2025,ADAS E/E architectures will become more centralized enabling driving and parking features from a central ADAS DCUDecentralized vs.centralized ADAS DCU architecturesSource:Roland BergerIllustrativeUltrasonic sensorRadarParking camera Smart sensors wit
18、h independent ECUs and isolated functionality Higher practicality for lower levels of ADAS and volume/budget modelsDecentralized architecture(today)Centralized architecture with ADAS DCU(future)Satellite sensors with transmission of sensor data to centralized ADAS DCU,which computes centrally for dr
19、iving and parking Best suited to higher levels of autonomy with more complex functionalities2025:c.70%of new vehicle sales2025:c.30%of new vehicle salesUSS ECUParking cameras ECUFront camera(smart)SoCNetworkADAS DCUSoCsFront camera(satellite)20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx12Since L3 r
20、egulation is delayed/unclear,industry focus shifts towards advanced L2+/+systems with driver liabilityRationale for the introduction of L2+Source:Desk research;SAE;Roland BergerLiabilityBackground/motivationFeatures L3 requires OEMs to be liable for thesystem even if thedriver is required torapidly
21、take over L2+solves the issues of unclear/delayed L3 regulation as drivers have to act as fallback-ready usersLevel 2+/+Level 2Level 3Temporary hands offTemporary hands offACC+TJAEyes off possible,but driver has to resume control at system requestDriver is responsibleDriver is responsibleOEM is liab
22、leHWAA.lanechangeHWPAESL3-like functionalityL2-like liabilityL2+/+systems offer L3-like functionality,but as in L2 systems the driver is liable,not the OEM as in L3However,a clear standard or industry-agreed definition of L2+/+does not exist20211124_RB_Mobex_ADAS_AD_2030_Webinar_vf.pptx13Ford,GM and
23、 Tesla have started to sell their hands-off ADAS solutions as subscription models USD 1,595(F-150)to 3,200(Mach-E)upfront(dep.on trim)Thereof,USD 600 for the first three years of service for the BlueCruisesoftware After that,continued use of the technology will require a subscription USD 2,500 upfro
24、nt for HW(depending on model/trim)After three-year free trial period,subscription will cost USD 25 per month(standalone basis)Alternatively,it can be added to certain OnStar plans or bundles for USD 15 per monthPricingSelected OEM ADAS OTA offeringsBlueCruiseSuper CruiseUSD 10,000 for hardware and l
25、ifetime FSD software updatesIntroduction of subscription model 200 USD per month2021 Ford F-150&Mustang Mach-E that are equipped with Co-Pilot360AvailabilityLaunched with 2018 Cadillac CT6,now also 2021s CT4,CT5,EscaladeAP v7 launched 2015,FSD v9 launched H2/2021 All modelsSource:Desktop research;Ro
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- 2030 adas 自动 驾驶 市场 发展趋势
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