五讲奥肯定律和菲利普斯曲线省公共课一等奖全国赛课获奖课件.pptx
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1、 第第 五五 讲讲 奥必定理和菲力浦斯曲线奥必定理和菲力浦斯曲线第1页Price Determination and the Production FunctionWe assume that labor is the only input,thenOutput:Y=ANN=EmploymentA=Labor Productivity1.Okuns Law:FromOutput Growth to UnemploymentRecall:Y=NY=N=L(1-u)Assume A=1,Then we get第2页 The actual relation between output growth
2、 and the The actual relation between output growth and the change in the unemployment rate is known as change in the unemployment rate is known as Okuns Okuns law.law.n n F From the above relation,we can get one to one rom the above relation,we can get one to one relationship between Y and urelation
3、ship between Y and un Change it slightly,we can obtain what we need-a relation between output growth and the change of unemployment.第3页Changes in the Changes in the Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate Versus Output Versus Output Growth in the United Growth in the United States,1970-States,1970-Using
4、 thirty years of data,the line that best fits the Using thirty years of data,the line that best fits the data is given by:data is given by:第4页According to the equation above,According to the equation above,To maintain the unemployment rate constant,output To maintain the unemployment rate constant,o
5、utput growth growth must be 3%per yearmust be 3%per year.This growth rate of.This growth rate of output is called the output is called the normal growth rate.normal growth rate.第5页According to the equation,output growth 1%According to the equation,output growth 1%above normal leads only to a 0.4%red
6、uction above normal leads only to a 0.4%reduction in unemployment,for two reasons:in unemployment,for two reasons:1.1.“Fixed production units”(e.g.the accounting“Fixed production units”(e.g.the accounting department of a firm)+Labor hoardingdepartment of a firm)+Labor hoarding2.2.Increase in the lab
7、or forceIncrease in the labor force第6页Using letters rather than numbers:Using letters rather than numbers:Output growth above normal leads to a Output growth above normal leads to a decrease in the unemployment rate.This is decrease in the unemployment rate.This is Okuns law:Okuns law:第7页PC0u In 195
8、8,A.W.Phillips drew a diagram In 1958,A.W.Phillips drew a diagram plotting the rate of inflation against the plotting the rate of inflation against the rate of unemployment in the United rate of unemployment in the United Kingdom for each year from 1861 to Kingdom for each year from 1861 to 1957.He
9、found a clear evidence of a 1957.He found a clear evidence of a negative relation between inflation and negative relation between inflation and unemployment:When unemployment unemployment:When unemployment was low,inflation was high,and when was low,inflation was high,and when unemployment was high,
10、inflation was unemployment was high,inflation was low,often even negative.low,often even negative.Two years later,Paul Samuelson and Two years later,Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow replicated Phillips Robert Solow replicated Phillips exercise for the United States,there exercise for the United State
11、s,there appeared to be a negative relation appeared to be a negative relation between inflation and unemployment in between inflation and unemployment in the United States also.the United States also.Samuelson and Solow baptized this relation the Phillips Curve.Phillips Curve.2.The Phillips Curve:Fr
12、om Unemployment to Inflation第8页 The Phillps curve rapidly became central to macroeconomic The Phillps curve rapidly became central to macroeconomic thinking and policy.It appeared to imply that countries could thinking and policy.It appeared to imply that countries could choose between different com
13、binations of unemployment and choose between different combinations of unemployment and inflation.They could achieve low unemployment if they were inflation.They could achieve low unemployment if they were willing to tolerate higher inflation.Or they could achieve price willing to tolerate higher in
14、flation.Or they could achieve price stability if they were willing to tolerate higher unemployment.stability if they were willing to tolerate higher unemployment.Much of the discussion about macroeconomic policy became a Much of the discussion about macroeconomic policy became a discussion about whi
15、ch point to choose on the Phillips curve.discussion about which point to choose on the Phillips curve.In the 1970s,however,the relation broke down.There was both In the 1970s,however,the relation broke down.There was both high inflation and high unemployment in both the United States high inflation
16、and high unemployment in both the United States and most OECD countries.and most OECD countries.A relation reappeared,but it was now a relation between the A relation reappeared,but it was now a relation between the unemployment rate and theunemployment rate and the changechange in the inflation rat
17、e.in the inflation rate.第9页Inflation Versus Unemployment in the United States,Inflation Versus Unemployment in the United States,1900-19601900-1960第10页Inflation,ExpectedInflation,and Unemployment This relation can be rewritten to establish a relation This relation can be rewritten to establish a rel
18、ation between between inflationinflation,expected inflationexpected inflation,and the,and the unemployment rateunemployment rate.2-1 First,the function First,the function F F,assumes the form:,assumes the form:Then,replace this function in the one above:Then,replace this function in the one above:Re
19、call the AS relation:第11页第12页Rearranging gives:As long as inflation,expected inflation and the markup are not too large,a approximation to this equation is given by:第13页The Phillips CurveIf we set If we set thenthen:2-2 The The wage-price spiralwage-price spiral:Given PGiven Pe et t=P=Pt-1t-1:Low un
20、employment at time t Low unemployment at time t W Wt t WWt t P Pt t P Pe et+1t+1 W Wt+1t+1 P Pt+1t+1 P Pe et+1t+1 WWt+2t+2 P Pt+2t+2 ,and so onThis is the original This is the original Phillips curvePhillips curve第14页MutationsThe negative relation between unemployment The negative relation between u
21、nemployment and inflation held throughout the 1960s,but it and inflation held throughout the 1960s,but it vanished after that,for two reasons:vanished after that,for two reasons:An increase in the price of oil,but more importantly,An increase in the price of oil,but more importantly,A change in the
22、way wage setters formed A change in the way wage setters formed expectations due to a change in the behavior of the expectations due to a change in the behavior of the rate of inflation.rate of inflation.The inflation rate became consistently positive,andThe inflation rate became consistently positi
23、ve,and Inflation became more persistent.Inflation became more persistent.第15页MutationsInflation versus Inflation versus UnemploymentUnemploymentin the United States,in the United States,1948-19691948-1969第16页MutationsInflation versus Inflation versus UnemploymentUnemploymentin the United States,in t
24、he United States,1970-1970-第17页MutationsU.S.Inflation,1900-U.S.Inflation,1900-第18页The Formation of Expectations Suppose expectations of inflation are formed Suppose expectations of inflation are formed according toaccording to第19页The Formation of Expectations In the equation above,when In the equati
25、on above,when equals zero,the relation equals zero,the relation between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate is:is:When When is positive,the inflation rate depends on both is positive,the inflation rate depends on both the unemployment rat
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