公共电视运营模式.ppt

DevelopingaSustainableEconomicModelforPublicTelevision,May29,2003,CONFIDENTIAL,1,PROJECTASPIRATIONSANDKEYQUESTIONS,Identifyanddrivemajorchangesthatwillputpublictelevisiononamoresoundeconomicfootingandensureitsfuturesuccess,Howsevereandlonglastingarethefinancialpressuresonthesystem?,Howshouldwelaunchtheseinitiativesandeffectlastingchange?,Whichperformanceimprovementopportunitiesofferthemostpromise?,2,CHALLENGES:BOTHSTATIONECONOMIESANDPROGRAMDEVELOPMENTAREAT-RISK,*Excludescapitalfundingfordigitalupgrade.Revenuesnotadjustedforinflation*Growthratefrom1994-2001Source:CPBAuditedFinancialReports(AFR),PBSanalysis(dues),AppendixQfromPBSSGwhitepaper(“FundingforPBSNPSProgrammingbyFunderCategory”),$1.93Billion,$450Million,2001LocalStationEconomy,2001NationalProgramFunding,Prospectsforfuturerevenuegrowth,3.5%peryear*,3.1%peryear*,Historicalgrowthinrevenues(1990-2001),Currentsize,Declineinrealtermsduetofallingnetmemberrevenues,Asystemdecision,5.4%peryear,Flattoveryslowlygrowing(1%aboveinflation),2001StationAssessment,$107M,3,273.3,374.0,249.4,328.5,230.5,330.5,205.6,347.6,128.6,259.6,104.2,145.6,62.9,94.5,TotalPTVsystemrevenue,*1990and2001$Millions,University,In-kind,Corporateandfoundationgiving,Unrelatedbusiness,Stateandlocalfunding,Federalfunding*,Membergiving,*Excludescapitalfundingfordigitalupgrade,additionalcapitalfundraising,endowment,andinterest*Federalagencygrantsfor2001areestimated(assumed5%growthover2000)Source:AFR;federalreports;PBSannualreports,$1.25billion,$1.88billion,CHALLENGES:ONLYGROWTHAREASAREUNRELATEDBUSINESSANDUNDERWRITING,1990,2001,3.8,3.1,6.6,4.9,3.3,2.9,AnnualGrowth%1990-2001,2.5,Driversofgrowth,4,CHALLENGES:HISTORICALLY,THESYSTEMHASGROWNTHROUGHDIVERSIFICATIONNOWALLREVENUESOURCESARETHREATENED,Source:AFRs;Teamperspective,FutureOutlook,5,CHALLENGES:NETSTATIONMEMBERSHIPREVENUEHASDECLINEDINREALTERMSSINCE1990,*Allgrowthratesarecompoundannualgrowthrates.Source:AFRs;BureauofLaborStatistics,Fundraisingcosts:1.0%,Netmembershiprevenues:-0.9%,$17millionlostincome,$Millions,Adjustedforinflationtoconstant2001$,Grossrevenues:0.1%*,6,CHALLENGES:DECLINESWILLCONTINUEINNETMEMBERSUPPORT,Pledge,whichistheengineofnewmemberacquisition,hasseenrisingcostsrelativetonewmemberyieldinlinewithdecliningproductivitytrendsoutsidePTV,NetrenewalrevenuewillnotoffsetdecliningacquisitionStationsalreadyhaveamongthenonprofitsectorshighestrenewalratesRenewalmailsproductivityisflattodecliningDecliningratingsincreasestationschallenge,Fallingratingslikelycontributetothelongtermmembershipdecline,bothbecausetheprospectpoolwithaconnectiontoPTVshrinksandbecausemembershiprenewalishighlycorrelatedwithaudience,Withthenumberofnonprofitsgrowingtwiceasfastasrealhouseholdcharitablegiving,stationswillbehardpressedtogrowtheirshareofmemberswallets,Source:“DonorCentricsComparisonReportforPublicTelevision,December2000;”DMAFactbook2001;GivingUSA2002,AudienceSize,NewMember,RenewingMember,PhilanthropicEnvironment,MembershipRevenueDrivers,Outlook,7,CHALLENGES:STATIONHAVEMETTHESECHALLENGESINTHEPASTBYCONTROLLINGCOSTSACROSSTHEBOARD,1990,Underwriting,Programinformation,Fundraising,Managementandgeneral,Broadcasting,Programmingandproduction,100%=,$1.80billion,7.9,3.3,3.8,3.1,4.0,3.8,*ExpensesdonotincludeCPBorPBSoverheadorCPBprovidednonstationgrantsSource:AFR;PBSannualreport,2001,AnnualGrowthRate1990-2001,Stationsexpense,1990and2001Percent,100%=,$1.19billion,2001,NPSduesandservices,4.0,Nearly1/3ofstationprogrammingandproductioncostsareconcentratedinproducingstationsfornationalprogramming,8,2001Actual,2010Illustrative,Broadcastops,Membership,Educ./outreach,Other,CHALLENGES:REVENUEDECREASESWILLPROMPTREPEATEDPAINFULCOSTREDUCTIONS,Source:SABS;interviews,Stationcost-cuttingscenario:,15%revenueloss,AcquisitionAPTSDigitalClearinghouse;PBSestimates,NextGenerationInterconnect,NewServices,Plannedcapitalinvestments,Potentialstrategicinvestments,Bringingthebestofpublictelevisionintoadigitalmediaworldthroughtheuseofdigitalcable,VOD,PVRsandHighDefinitionprogramming,Innovatingandlaunchingnewservicessuchasdistancelearningornewmediaservicesthatmaynotgenerateincome,atleastinthenearterm,10,CHALLENGES:NATIONALPROGRAMMING,LIKEWISE,FACESUNPRECENTEDPRESSURES,UnprecedentedchangesinaudiencedemographicsandviewingenvironmentIncreasinginvestmentinprogrammingandpromotionfromcablecompetitors,ExternalPressures,InternalPressures,LittleornogrowthintraditionalsourcesofrevenueRisingcostsandnewcosts(suchasHDproduction),Responses,Introducingnew/limitedseriesandspecialstoslowratingsdeclineIncreasingfundingfromCPBandPBStocoverrisingperhourcostsGreaterrelianceonfully-fundedprogramsPeriodiccostreduction,NationalProgramming,11,CHALLENGES:NORELIEFFROMTRADITIONALPROGRAMMINGFUNDINGSOURCES,*IncludesgovernmentagenciessuchasNSFandNEH,butnotCPBappropriationSource:PBSSGsEnvironmentalScanofthePBSSponsorshipSalesModelAugust2002;2002figuresareestimatesasof12/12/02,Growthintotalprogramminginvestment-NPS/Plus/SIP/Select(1991-2001)$Millions,Corporate,Foundation,privateproducer,other*,Station,PBS,andCPB,1991-2001GrowthRate,7.1%,5.4%,2.6%,266,301,338,267,291,327,370,311,326,379,450,Prospectsforfuturefundinggrowth,Source,1991-2001GrowthRatePercent,Futureoutlook,PBS/,stations,4,-,impossibletoincreaseassessments,absentverycompellingcase,Corporate,underwriters,5,AbilitytojoininrecoveryofTVadmarketthreatenedbyturnoverofkeyunderwritersandcommercialcompetition,CPB,3,Federaldeficits,fiscalenvironment,threatenrequestedincreases,Foundations,9,Slowergrowthlikelyasfoundations,stabilizegivinglevelsafterrapid,increasesinthelate1990sand,shrinkingendowmentssince2000,Independent,producers,8,Continuedgrowthuncertain,Government,agencies,9,Threatenedbygovernmentdeficits,Other,10,Toosmalltomakeadifference,432,12,CHALLENGES:INCREASINGLY,NATIONALPROGRAMMINGDOLLARSHAVELESSLEVERAGERELATIVETOCOMPETITION,GrowthRate19.9%,Programminginvestmentof4comparablecablenets,Annualprogramminginvestment,1993-2001$Millions,Source:KagansEconomicsofBasicCableNetworks2002;TVProgramInvestor;PBS,NPSoriginalbroadcastandre-upspending,GrowthRate4.7%,Averageinvestment$41M/year,PTVinvestment$334M/year,PTVinvestment$450M/year,Average=$183M/year,8:1,2.5:1,13,CHALLENGES:INDEPENDENTCOMMERCIALBROADCASTSTATIONSFACESIMILARPRESSUREANDARERESPONDINGWITHSIMILARSOLUTIONSINCREASESCALEANDIMPROVEPRACTICES,Pressureonlocalnewsthecashcowfrom:AudiencefragmentationGreatercompetitionRatingsforsyndicatedprogrammingdownwhilecostsareupDecreases/eliminationofnetworkcompensationDifficultadmarketDTVmandatesThreatfrommoreOMcKinseyNonprofitPractice,Givingpyramidfortypicalstationbeforelaunchingmajorgifteffort*,Givingpyramidfortypicalstationafterlaunchingmajorgivingeffort,Majorgivingrevenue,6%,94%,13%,87%,SOLUTIONS:MAJORGIVINGHASAPOTENTIALIMPACT$20-$35MILLIONNETREVENUE,Ifallstationscouldseecomparableimprovements,systemcouldraise$20-35millionnetrevenue,19,SOLUTIONS:CASESTUDIESOFFERUSEFULROLEMODELSFORSTATIONSLAUNCHINGHIGHTOUCHDEVELOPMENTEFFORTS,Source:Stationdata(KLRU,KNPB,OregonPTV,andKUED),6.5,1.6,1.6,CostperdollarraisedPercent,4.7,6.0,2.0,-17.2,.9,KNPBsmajorgivingeffortwassuccessfulbecausetheyaggressivelytargetedhighnetworthindividualsforlargegifts$Thousands,KLRUsmajorgivingeffortgrew3timesasfastastheirregularmembershipefforts$Thousands,Oregonhasbeensuccessfulbecausetheyexpandedafullrangeofhightouchdevelopmentefforts,includingmajorgiving,plannedgiving,andanendowmentfund$Thousands,75,90,113,Numberofmajordonors,27,47,71,106,25.6,Midlevelgiving,Majorgiving,Plannedgiving,Endowment,34,80,82,122,112,Numberofmajordonors,7,63,85,N/A,95,127,33.6*,1,701,787,460,615,697,Costperdonor$,0,814,575,N/A,960,632,-10.4*,KUEDslong-terminvestmentinmajorgivinghasledtoaten-foldincreaseinthisrevenue$Thousands,GrowthRate,25.5*,1,420,2,174,3,054,3,790,4,519,7,853,8,495,GrowthRate,28.9,GrowthRate,14.0,20,SOLUTIONS:SUCCESSREQUIRESSIGNIFICANTACTION,*Definedasstationswithnoorlimitedmajorgivingeffortsorreporting,lessthan6%oftotalmemberrevenuesfrommajorgifts)*Definedasstationswheremajorgivingrevenuesaccountfor6-13%oftotalmemberrevenue*Definedasstationswheremajorgivingrevenuesaccountfor+14%oftotalmemberrevenueSource:SABS,Stationssegmentedbymajorgiftefforts,Total=,176,$374M,Numberofstations,Totalmemberrevenue,Strongmajorgifteffort*,Limitedmajorgifteffort*,Somemajorgifteffort*,Establishfullrangeofhightouchdevelopmentefforts(i.e.,majorgiving,plannedgiving,endowmentdevelopment),Opportunity,Potential,$10-20Mnetrevenue,Raisecurrenteffortsuptobestpractice(e.g.,improveexistingmajorgiving,expandmenuofhightouchdevelopmentofferings),$8-15Mnetrevenue,Continueeffortstoachievefullpotential,Totalunknown,$20-35M+,21,SOLUTIONS:MEMBERSHIPSTAFFOUTNUMBERSMAJORGIVINGSTAFFOVER6:1,Source:SABS,Serveover1.5millionmembersandover$120millioninrevenue,Serve8500majorgiversandover$40millioninrevenue,22,SOLUTIONS:KEYELEMENTSOFOURPLANWILLINCLUDEDEVELOPINGCAPACITYATSTATIONSWITHGMsANDBOARDS,ASWELLASWITHINDEVELOPMENTDEPARTMENTS,23,24,SOLUTIONS:BROADCASTOPERATIONSWORKFLOWSPROJECT,DECISION,IMPLEMENTATION,ANALYSIS&PLANDEVELOPMENT,COMMUNICATIONS,LAUNCH,25,SGsellsadditionalsponsorshipInventory,SOLUTIONS:NATIONALPROGRAMMINGSOBJECTIVEIDENTIFYIMPROVEMENTSINVALUECHAIN(NEWPROCESSES,DIFFERENTROLES),Setpriorities/agenda,Commissionprojects/analyzeresults,Synthesizeallfindings,Share/distributefindings,Setstrategy,Definefuturescheduleplan/goals,Devisemetricstomeasuresuccess,Localunderwritingspotssold,Distributionagreementsmade,Inventory/manufacturedstocked,Sales,Scheduleandpopoutsannounced(Jun),Station“toolkits”assembled,Commissionproject,Greenlightfornationalschedule,Negotiatecontractw/producers,Negotiatecontract:CPB/PBS/producingstation,Fund-raising,GreenlightCPB/PBSfinancialcontribution,Greenlightproducingstationfinancialcontribution,Domesticprogramsales,Research/developprojects,Reviewexternalprojectproposals,Fall/SpringschedulessetinMay,Internationalpostsales,26,NEXTSTEPS:TIMELINEANDDELIVERABLES,SteeringCommitteemeeting,Annualmeeting,May,June,ReviewofsuggestionsandconcernsfromRoundRobinmeetingsRefinementsofanalysisandplansCommitmentfromkeystakeholdersconfirmed(e.g.,GMsforMajorgiving,technologycommunity),ProjectvisionandprogresssharedwithfullstationcommunityLaunchprogrammingresearcheffortFirstwaveofeffortsdeveloped(e.g.,earlymajorgivingadopters),DevelopmentConference,September,Majorgivinginternalcampaignlaunchedforfirstsetofstations,BuildCapacityforLaunches,BuildmajorgivingprojectcapacityDevelopstructureforstationefficiencieseffortDesigninitialprogrammingneedsandevaluationresearchDevelopcontentandapproachforlocalboards,July/August,27,DISCUSSIONQUESTIONS,Doyouagreewiththefinancialfindings?Whatquestionsdoyouhaveabouttheanalysis?Whatwillberequiredforsuccessinmajorgiving?Stationefficiencies?Whatrolecanyourfunctionalareasplayinensuringsuccess?,