中国粮食进口聚焦粮食安全.pdf

专栏SPECIALS56栏目责编：徐亦宁关键提示中国粮食进口聚焦粮食安全在全球粮食市场持续动荡且充满不确定性的背景下，2023年上半年，中国海运粮食进口仍然表现强劲，同比增长6%至7890万吨，创有记录以来的历史第二高水平。展望未来，国内需求增长、巴西粮食丰收，以及构建以粮食安全为重点的多元化进口格局，将成为中国粮食进口增长的重要推动力。中国粮食进口概况近年来，中国粮食进口一直是全球海运粮食贸易增长的主要推动力，近十年复合增速达到7%。2022年，中国海运粮食进口总量已占全球粮食贸易量的27%，明显高于2012年的20%及2002年的6%。2021年，中国海运粮食进口量达到创纪录的1.56亿吨。尽管受俄乌冲突和全球粮食价格高企等一系列因素影响，但2022年进口总量较2020年仍高出4%达到1.37亿吨。中国传统粮食进口以大豆为主，过去十年约占粮食进口总量的76%。进口大豆主要用于制成动物饲料，巴西和美国为主要供应国，过去十年来自巴西和美国的大豆占中国大豆进口总量的89%。构建多元化进口格局近年来，中国海运粮食进口种类逐渐增多。粗粮（尤其是玉米）以及小麦在中国粮食进口总量中的占比明显增加，2022年达到35%，远高于十年前的16%。这一趋势体现了中国饮食结构的转变、动物饲料构成的变化、战略粮食储备以及粮食进口多元化格局的构建。受中美经贸摩擦影响，20182019年中美粮食贸易曾短暂中断，但之后在20202021年有所恢复，这一中断进一步推动中国加快构建粮食多元化进口格局以保障国家粮食安全。近年来，中国海运粗粮及小麦进口量激增且来源日益多样化。20182021年乌克兰对中国的粗粮出口量平均每年增长约46%，2021年乌克兰占中国玉米进口总量的68%。2017年法国对中国出口的粗粮几乎为零，但在2021年已达到创纪录的360万吨（大麦占比几乎达到100%）。与此同时，中国也增加了自加拿大和阿根廷的粗粮进口。2021年澳大利亚成为中国第一大小麦供应国，2022年中国进口自澳大利亚的小麦超过550万吨，占中国小麦进口总量的58%。聚焦“粮食安全”受近年国际局势持续动荡的影响，中国构建粮食多元化进口格局的重要性日益凸显。2022年，俄乌冲突导致中国自乌克兰粮食进口量同比下降52%至600万吨，美国小麦和粗粮出口缩减也使2022年下半年全球粮食供应趋紧，而阿根廷的干旱也增加了粮食供应的不确定性。在此背景下，中国在2022年与巴西签署玉米供应协议后，持续增加进口该国的玉米，今年巴西的丰收更是推动中国自巴西的粮食进口总量在5月创下历史新高，达到950万吨。一系列因素正推动中国加快构建粮食多元化进口格局。尽管粮食市场本身具有明显的季节性和波动性，但预计这一趋势仍将延续。一系列因素正推动中国加快构建粮食多元化进口格局，海运粮食进口量持续增长。中国海运粮食进口来源来源：克拉克森研究中国海运粮食进口量/百万吨年1H 20131H 20141H 20151H 20161H 20171H 20181H 20191H 20201H 20211H 20221H 2023Maritime China|中国远洋海运11it.What is the development trend of marine fuel?How to choose the time path?How to make the best choices in addressing the challenges of climate change?P38China-Europe freight trains are speeding upThe China-Europe Railway Express has entered the track of high-quality development and become a new mode of international transport organization featuring convenience,speed,stability,safety and green economy.It is a vivid example of Chinas participation in global opening up and cooperation and high-quality Belt and Road cooperation.The goods of Europe and countries move along the line go to the sea through the China-Europe railway,and then through the coastal ports,the new land and sea passage in the west,the golden waterway of the Yangtze River,etc.,to South Korea,Japan,Singapore,Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries.The international multimodal transport pattern of China-Europe railway has basically taken shape.It is expected that the direction of Central Asia will remain hot in the second half of the year,China and Russia freight train will run stably,and the European section will improve compared with the first half of the year.P54Chinese grain imports:food security in focusChinese seaborne grain imports rose 6%y-o-y to 78.9mt in the first half of 2023,chalking up the second strongest half-year on record despite a turbulent grain market backdrop.Looking ahead,underlying demand growth,efforts to diversify suppliers amid a food security focus,and a bumper Brazilian harvest all appear to be adding to a positive outlook.Here we take a closer look.Recent developments have only served to increase the focus on diversification of China s grain imports.The Russia-Ukraine 12conflict saw Ukrainian grain exports to China fall by 52%y-o-y to 6mt in 2022,while weak US wheat and coarse grain exports also curbed global supply in 2H 2022.Drought in Argentina is increasingly a concern,while China s 14th 5-Year-Plan puts clear emphasis on food security.Against this backdrop,China has been raising imports of Brazilian corn after approval was granted last year,with a bumper crop this year helping to drive total Chinese grain imports from Brazil to record levels in May.So,a range of factors are driving firm Chinese grain imports(1H 2023 was the second strongest half year ever),from increasingly diverse suppliers.Grain markets are notably seasonal and volatile,but with food security a key focus this trend for now looks set to continue.P56Slow on the uptakeBarely half a year into an ambitious project to migrate the container shipping industry to electronic bills of lading(eBLs)by 2030,demand for such tools from shippers remains muted,several industry sources said.The progress of the initiative,set in motion in February when nine of the top 10 shipping lines committed to transition to 100%eBLs by 2030,is notable when set against recent support from five associations representing container lines,forwarders,the bulk shipping industry,the International Chamber of Commerce,and the international payment network Swift.The commitments from those organizations,collectively known as the Future International Trade(FIT)Alliance,are meant to draw in shippers through transactional platforms that involve FIT members.Whether that eventually moves the needle,shipper traction has been hard to come by thus far,according to a range of forwarders who spoke to the Journal of Commerce.Forwarders are seen as a key conduit in broader adoption of eBLs,as they interact digitally with both container lines and shippers.Also hindering adoption from shippers and forwarders are a range of technical,regulatory and behavioral issues.For one,each shipping line is at a different stage in October 2023栏目责编：陶润元