国际集装箱运输市场：进入淡季.pdf

22栏目责编：姚亚平月度航情观察10月，集运市场进入淡季，运价开始下行。需求方面，据CTS统计，1至8月，全球集装箱海运量同比减少3.2%。其中，亚欧线去程方向运量同比增长3.3%，跨太平洋线去程方向减少16.4%。从生产端看，JP Morgan发布的2023年9月全球制造业PMI为49.1，环比微升0.1个百分点，新出口订单分项指数为47.7点，环比回升0.7个百分点，但仍低于荣枯线。从消费端看，9月美国零售销售同比增长3.8%，与通胀增速3.7%基本持平；但8月欧元区零售销售同比减少2.1%，降幅大于7月的1%。去库存方面，8月美国零售库存销售比仍为1.3，与6月、7月持平。运力方面，据Alphaliner统计，1至9月集装箱船交付236艘160.01万TEU，按TEU计，同比增长136%；拆解58艘10.76万TEU，2022年同期拆解1艘228TEU；10月初，集装箱船运力同比增长7.1%。截至10月9日，500TEU以上船型非运营运力合计315艘117.55万TEU，占全部运力的4.3%，比9月11日提高1个百分点。其中，闲置运力129艘46.93万TEU，国际集装箱运输市场：进入淡季 中远海运研发占现役运力的1.7%，比9月11日提高0.8个百分点。运价方面，上海航运交易所发布的2023年10月中国出口集装箱综合运价指数（CCFI）均值816点，环比下降6.9%，同比下降58.1%；反映即期市场运价的上海出口集装箱综合运价指数（SCFI）均值941点，环比下降1.6%，同比下降46.7%。东西干线跌势明显，美西和美东线CCFI指数均值环比分别减少6.7%和7.6%，欧洲和地中海线指数均值环比分别下跌10.1%和13.7%。短期看，根据美国零售联合会（NRF）的预测，2023年11月和12月，美国主要港口集装箱货物进口量同比将分别增长7.5%和8.9%，2024年1月和2月同比将分别增长4.2%和12.7%。考虑到2022年下半年以来的低基数，尽管需求正在恢复同比增长势头，但仍不能为正在加速交付的运力提供足够的货源，市场继续面临淡季压力。2024年，集运需求增速将回归至与全球GDP增长接近的2%至3%的水平，但新船交付量将再创历史新高，或高达300万TEU。10月中上旬，国际干散货市场延续9月以来的涨势，BDI连续七周上行，10月17日突破2 000点大关，18日升至2 105点，创下2022年10月以来的新高。但是随着西澳、南非等地铁矿石发运货量的明显减少，好望角型船运价快速下跌；美西和南美的粮食货盘有限，加上俄乌冲突导致乌克兰已暂停使用其新的黑海谷物出口走廊，巴拿马型船与灵便型船市场走弱。10月BDI均值1 868点，环比上涨34.1%，同比上涨3%。110月BDI均值1 243点，同比下跌39.1%。好望角型船市场：唐山与邯郸启动环保限产，市场情绪回落。10月31日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平为16 750美元，比10月初的21 645美元/天下跌22.6%。巴拿马型船市场：两大洋区交易节奏放缓，印尼煤炭货盘减少。10月31日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平为13 803美元，比10月初的15 159美元/天下跌8.9%。灵便型船市场：运输需求下降。10月31日，超级大灵便型船10条期租航线日租金平均水平 中远海运研发国际干散货运输市场：冲高回落v24The container shipping market entered into the off-season in October,with spot rates starting to fall.DemandAccording to Container Trades Statistics,global seaborne container volume dropped 3.2%YoY in the first eight months of 2023.The trade volume on Asia-Europe outward route increased 3.3%YoY while that on the Trans-Pacific outward route dropped 16.4%YoY.From the production perspective,global PMI in September as JP Morgan released was 49.1,0.1 point higher than August.The new export order index rose 0.7 points to 47.7,still remaining in the contraction zone.From the consumption perspective,retail sales in the U.S.rose 3.8%YoY,basically on par with inflation growth which was 3.7%YoY in September.Retail sales in the Eurozone dropped further from 1.0%YoY in July to 2.1%YoY in August.In terms of destocking,retail inventory to sales ratio of the U.S.remained at the 1.3 level in August,on par with that in June and July.CapacityAlphaliner statistics showed that 236 ships totaling 1,600,100 TEUs of containerships were delivered in the first nine months of 2023,growing 136%YoY in TEU terms.58 vessels of 107,600 TEUs were scrapped,compared with one 228-TEU ship dismantled during the same period of 2022.In early October,fleet capacity grew 7.1%YoY.As of 9 October,inactive fleet ships,each with a size larger than 500 TEUs,added up to 315 units of 1,175,500 TEUs and accounted for 4.3%of the total fleet,1.0%higher than that on 11 September.Thereinto,129 ships of 469,300 TEUs were idled,accounting for 1.7%of current fleet capacity,0.8%higher than that on 11 September.FreightChina Containerized Freight Index(CCFI)released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange averaged 816 points in October,down 6.9%MoM and 58.1%YoY.Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI)reflecting the spot market averaged 941 points,down 1.6%MoM and 46.7%YoY.As for rates on trunk lanes in October,east-west lanes dropped obviously.CCFI W/C and E/C America Service averages dropped 6.7%MoM and 7.6%MoM respectively while European and Mediterranean service index averages dropped 10.1%MoM and 13.7%MoM respectively.In the short term,according to the forecast of the National Retail Federation of the U.S.,the import volume of containerized goods from major ports of the U.S.will increase by 7.5%YoY and 8.9%YoY in November and December 2023 respectively.In January and February 2024,the growth rates will be 4.2%YoY and 12.7%YoY respectively.Considering the low base since H2 2022,although demand is regaining the yearly growth momentum,it still cannot provide sufficient cargo source for the accelerating delivery capacity,leaving the market to continue to face the off-season pressure.In 2024,the growth rate of container shipping demand will recede to a level close to the global GDP growth which is around 2-3%while the delivery of new capacity will reach a new historical high,or as much as 3m TEUs.International Container Shipping Market Overview:Off-season Starts COSCO SHIPPING R&D栏目责编：陶润元