国际集装箱运输市场：相对平稳.pdf

22栏目责编：姚亚平月度航情观察9月，集运市场相对平稳，但现货运价已开始下跌。需求方面，据CTS统计，1至7月，全球集装箱海运量同比减少4.2%。其中，亚欧线去程方向运量同比增长2.5%，跨太平洋线去程方向减少19.1%。从生产端看，J.P.Morgan 发布的2023年8月全球制造业PMI为49，环比回升0.4个百分点，新出口订单分项指数为47，环比回升0.6个百分点，但仍处于收缩区间。从消费端看，8月美国零售销售同比增长2.5%，低于通胀增速3.7%；7月，欧元区零售销售同比仍然减少1%。去库存方面，进展仍然缓慢，7月美国零售库存销售比为1.3，与6月持平。运力方面，据Alphaliner统计，1至8月集装箱船交付208艘140.5万TEU，按TEU计，同比增长144%；拆解54艘10.2万TEU，2022年同期拆解1艘228TEU；9月初，集装箱船运力同比增长了6.8%。截至9月11日，500TEU以上船型非运营运力合计250艘90.8万TEU，占全部运力的3.3%，与8月14日持平。其中，闲置运力80艘25.9万TEU，占现役运力的0.9%，与8月14日持平。国际集装箱运输市场：相对平稳 中远海运研发运价方面，上海航运交易所发布的2023年9月中国出口集装箱综合运价指数（CCFI）均值876点，环比减少0.5%，同比下降66.2%；反映即期市场运价的上海出口集装箱综合运价指数（SCFI）均值956点，环比回落7.4%，同比下降59.2%。主要航线方面，美线仍在上涨，美西和美东线CCFI指数均值环比分别增长2.3%和0.3%；欧线运价则下降，欧洲和地中海线指数均值环比分别下跌3.4%和5.7%。短期看，Sea-Intelligence指出，美国的消费不仅从产品转向服务，而且产品消费中零售销售的增长主要来自汽车、娱乐产品（如计算机软件）、食品、饮料等，而不是耐用消费品，这不利于集运需求的增长。据Drewry统计，第39至43周（9月25日至10月29日），班轮公司在东西干线上暂停的航次达原计划航次的15%，表明班轮公司开始为淡季做准备。考虑到现货运价已经开始下跌，国庆假期后运价下行压力或有所加大。尽管各市场分析机构普遍认为2024年需求增速将不及运力增速，但需求增长恢复正常水平将给市场带来希望。9月以来，好望角型船带动国际干散货航运市场强势上涨。中国制造业和基建开工维持较高水平刺激钢材需求，澳洲与巴西矿石发货量较为集中；煤炭贸易活跃度不减，且超灵便型船即期运力偏紧，支持BDI一路飙升，9月29日上涨至1 701点，10月6日突破1 900点，创下2022年10月以来的新高。9月BDI均值1 393点，环比上涨21.1%，同比下跌6.3%。19月BDI均值1 169点，同比下跌43.4%。好望角型船市场：铁矿石需求向好，澳洲至中国的煤炭运输明显增加，船东信心高涨。9月29日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平达20 520美元，比9月初的8 561美元/天大幅上涨140%。巴拿马型船市场：南美压港且巴拿马运河拥堵导致运力偏紧。9月29日，5条期租航线日租金平均水平达15 305美元，比9月初的13 300美元/天上涨15%。灵便型船市场：随着一波运输小高峰的来临，中远海运研发国际干散货运输市场：持续上涨24The container shipping market was relatively stable in September,with spot rates starting to fall.DemandAccording to Container Trades Statistics,global seaborne container volume dropped 4.2%YoY in the first seven months of 2023.The trade volume on Asia-Europe outward route increased 2.5%YoY while that on the Trans-Pacific outward route dropped 19.1%YoY.From the production perspective,global PMI in August as JP Morgan released was 49.0,0.4 points higher than July.The new export order index rose 0.6 points from July to 47.0,remaining in the contraction zone.From the consumption perspective,retail sales in the U.S.rose 2.5%YoY,lower than inflation growth which was 3.7%YoY in August.Retail sales of July dropped 1.0%YoY in Eurozone.In terms of destocking,progress remained slow.Retail inventory to sales ratio in the U.S.was 1.3 in July,on par with that in June.CapacityAlphaliner statistics showed that 208 ships totaling 1,405,000 TEUs of containerships were delivered in the first eight months of 2023,growing 144%YoY in TEU terms.54 vessels of 102,000 TEUs were scrapped,comparing with one 228-TEU ship dismantled during the same period of 2022.In early September,fleet capacity grew 6.8%YoY.As of 11 September,inactive fleet ships,each with size larger than 500 TEUs,added up to 250 units of 908,000 TEUs and accounted for 3.3%of the total fleet,on par with that on 14 August.Thereinto,80 ships of 259,000 TEUs were idled,accounting for 0.9%of current fleet capacity,on par with that on 14 August.FreightChina Containerized Freight Index(CCFI)released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange averaged 876 points in September,down 0.5%MoM but down 66.2%YoY.Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI)reflecting the spot market averaged 956 points,down 7.4%MoM and 59.2%YoY.As for rates on trunk lanes in September,America kept growing with CCFI W/C and E/C America Service averages up 3.0%MoM and 1.3%MoM respectively while those of Europe Service declined.European and Mediterranean service index averages dropped 3.4%MoM and 5.7%MoM respectively.In the short term,Sea Intelligence pointed out that consumption in the U.S.has shifted from products to services.Furthermore,retail sales growth of product consumption mainly came from automobiles,entertainment products(such as computer software),food,beverages,etc.,rather than durables,which is not in favor of container shipping demand growth.According to Drewry,liner companies have canceled 15%of the planned voyages on the east-west main lanes during the 39th to 43th weeks(25 September to 29 October),indicating that they are preparing for the off season.Considering that spot rates have started to decline,the downward pressure will likely increase after the National Day holiday.Although market analysis institutions generally believe that demand growth will not be as much as capacity growth in 2024,that demand growth will resume to a normal level will bring hope to the market.International Container Shipping Market Overview:Relatively Stable COSCO SHIPPING R&D栏目责编：陶润元