国际油轮运输市场：震荡上行.pdf

Maritime China|中国远洋海运2323 中远海运研发国际油轮运输市场：震荡上行10月，油轮市场震荡上行。原油轮市场，月初，中国国庆假期进口速度放缓，市场成交冷清，运价下行。月中，巴以冲突爆发，OPEC+表态将协同稳定石油供应，地缘局势升温不改旺季市场逻辑，运价止跌反弹。月末，美国宣布暂时解除对委内瑞拉的部分制裁，市场货源得到补充，运价波动上涨。2023年9月，欧佩克原油产量2 776万桶/日，环比上升1%，同比下降6.5%；中国原油进口量4 574万吨，环比下降13.4%。1至9月，中国原油进口量4.2亿吨，同比上升14.5%。成品油轮市场，不同船型运价走势分化。欧美航线上的大中型成品油轮交易活跃，货多船少，运价上升；而小型成品油轮在暑期旅游高峰过后遭遇汽油需求增长趋势逆转，运价震荡下滑。2023年截至10月31日，Baltic Exchange数据显示：VLCC中东/中国航线平均运价为WS57点，同比上升21.5%；日均收益水平达34 410美元，同比上升330%；苏伊士型油轮主要航线日均收益水平达47 412美元，同比上升21.9%；阿芙拉型油轮主要航线日均收益水平达44 660美元，同比上升20.9%。成品油轮方面，5.5万吨成品油轮中东/日本主要航线日均收益水平达28 384美元，同比上升1.9%。2023年截至9月底，克拉克森数据显示：油轮（含化学品船）市场交付尚未提速，共有119艘万吨以上油轮（含20艘VLCC）交付，2022年同期为201艘（含33艘VLCC）；拆解活跃度下降，仅有9艘（无VLCC）万吨以上油轮送拆，2022年同期为64艘（含2艘VLCC），拆船价格520美元/吨，价格略有回升。新造船订单开始抬头，万吨以上油轮新造船订单数为261艘（含14艘VLCC），2022年同期为104艘（含3艘VLCC），新造VLCC价格1.28亿美元左右；二手船交易活跃度下滑，共有424艘油轮（含41艘VLCC）成交，2022年同期为506艘（含61艘VLCC），5年船龄VLCC售价9 800万美元左右。短期看，中东地缘冲突对全球石油供应影响不大，运价仍具有上涨动能。然而，贸易商期待冲突缓和后的油价回落，市场观望情绪浓厚，交易延迟或将拖缓运价回暖节奏。长期看，2024年全球油轮运输市场基本面仍将强劲。需求侧方面，出口方向，OPEC+产油国继续减产，加快了对委内瑞拉等国出口禁令的解除，石油供给确定性增强，规模将维持稳定。进口方向，中国、印度和巴西的石油需求快速增长，成为支撑全球需求的坚实因素。为12 484美元，比10月初的13 890美元/天下跌10%；小灵便型船7条期租航线日租金平均水平为11 888美元，比10月初的12 190美元/天下跌2.5%。10月，新船交付27艘244.3万载重吨，拆解2艘9.1万载重吨。今年以来，新船交付总计413艘3 060万载重吨，运力拆解79艘494.3万载重吨，运力净增长334艘2 565.7万载重吨。短期看，中国钢材需求不及预期，国内港口铁矿石库存继续回升至1.114亿吨；国内逐步开始采购冬储煤；近日中储粮、中粮国际和ADM、邦吉以及嘉吉等公司签署了11份采购协议，计划购买数十亿美元的农产品，但美国密西西比河和巴西亚马孙河的干旱问题持续影响两国的粮食出口。预计短期国际干散货市场将呈震荡下跌走势。长期看，2024年一季度将进入巴西雨季及东亚国家春节假期需求淡季，市场将持续承压。世界钢铁协会最新预测2023年全球钢铁需求将恢复性增长1.8%，达到18.145亿吨；2024年继续增长1.9%，达到18.491亿吨。克拉克森最新预测2023年干散货海运需求量和周转量分别增长3.7%和4.6%；2024年海运需求量和周转量分别增长1.3%和1.8%；2023年和2024年的干散货船运力供给增速分别为2.9%和2.2%。v26International Tanker Market Overview:Fluctuate upwards COSCO SHIPPING R&DIn October,the tanker market fluctuated upwards.As for the crude sector,the import speed slowed down at the beginning of the month as China celebrated the National Day holiday,seeing less market transactions and falling freight rates.In mid-October,the Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out,and OPEC+declared to join efforts stabilizing oil supply.The heated geopolitical situation did not alter the logic of the market in peak season,and freight rates rebounded.At the end of the month,the U.S.announced the temporary lifting of some sanctions against Venezuela,which replenished market supply and caused fluctuations in freight rates.In September 2023,OPEC crude output reached 27.76 mb/d,up 1.0%MoM but down 6.5%YoY.In September,China imported 45.74m tonnes,down 13.4%MoM.In the first nine months of the year,Chinas crude imports totaled 420m tonnes,up 14.5%YoY.As for the product sector,rate of different ship segments diverged.The trading of large and medium-sized product tankers on European and American routes was active,with more cargo and fewer ships,resulting in an increase in freight rates;After the summer tourism peak,small product tankers experienced a reversal in the growth trend of gasoline demand,dragging freight rates to fluctuate downwards.As of 31 October,Baltic Exchange data showed that the average rate of a VLCC for Middle East/China run was WS57,up 21.5%YoY and average earnings were US$34,410/day,up 330%YoY.Suezmax s average earnings on major routes was US$47,412/day,growing 21.9%YoY.Aframax s average earnings on major routes was US$44,660/day,up 20.9%YoY.As for the product sector,average earnings of a 55,000dwt product tanker for Middle East/Japan runs was US$28,384/day,up 1.9%YoY.As of the end of September,Clarksons data indicated that deliveries of tanker newbuilding(including chemical carriers)did not pick up speed with 119 units of size larger than 10,000 dwt(including 20 VLCCs)delivered,comparing with 201 units(including 33 VLCCs)delivered during the same period of last year.Ship scrapping activities decreased,with only nine vessels of size larger than 10,000 dwt(no VLCC)sent for scrapping,comparing with 64 units including two VLCCs sent for scrapping during the same period of 2022.Scrapping price picked up slightly to US$520/tonne.Tanker newbuilding orderbook started to grow with contracts for 261 units of size larger than 10,000 dwt signed(including orders for 14 VLCCs),comparing with 104 units(including three VLCCs)contracted during the same period of last year.The price of a newbuilding VLCC was US$128m approximately.The second-hand transaction activities decreased.Firm deals for 424 tankers including 41 VLCCs had been closed,comparing with deals for 506 tankers including 61 VLCCs nailed down during the same period of 2022.The price of a five-year-old VLCC was US$98m approximately.In the short term,the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has little impact on global oil supply,and freight rates still have growing momentum.However,traders are looking forward to a decrease in oil prices after the conflict subsides,and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.Delays in trading may slow down the recovery pace of freight rates.In the long run,the global tanker shipping market fundamentals will remain robust in 2024.On the demand side,from the export perspective,OPEC+oil producing countries continue to cut production,accelerating the lifting of export bans on Venezuela and other countries,which enhances the surety of oil supply and maintains the stable export scale.From the import perspective,the rapid growth of oil demand in China,India,and Brazil has become a solid element supporting global demand.栏目责编：陶润元