2024年世界汽车展望.pdf

Global EV Outlook 2024Moving towards increased affordabilityThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Abstract PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and assesses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe.It is developed with the support of members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative(EVI).Combining analysis of historical data with projections now extended to 2035 the report examines key areas of interest such as the deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure,battery demand,investment trends,and related policy developments in major and emerging markets.It also considers what wider EV adoption means for electricity and oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.The report includes analysis of lessons learned from leading markets,providing information for policy makers and stakeholders on policy frameworks and market systems that support electric vehicle uptake.This edition also features analysis of electric vehicle affordability,second-hand markets,lifecycle emissions of electric cars and their batteries,and grid impacts from charging medium-and heavy-duty electric trucks.Two online tools are made available alongside the report:the Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer,which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics and projections,and policy measures worldwide.Global EV Outlook 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The Global EV Outlook 2024 was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy Agency(IEA).The project was designed and directed by Timur Gl,Chief Energy Technology Officer.Araceli Fernandez Pales,Head of the Technology Innovation Unit,provided strategic guidance throughout the development of the project.Elizabeth Connelly co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report.The principal IEA authors were(in alphabetical order):Oskaras Alauskas,Elizabeth Connelly,Mathilde Huismans,Ethan Jenness,Javier Jorquera Copier,Jean-Baptiste Le Marois,Teo Lombardo,Shane McDonagh,Vera ORiordan,Apostolos Petropoulos and Jules Sery.Yoshihisa Tsukamoto and Biqing Yang contributed to the research on EV supportive policies and OEM electrification plans.Vedant Sinha contributed to analysis on EV price parity and data management.Anthony Vautrin contributed to the analysis on total and net load impacts of electric truck charging.Valuable insights and feedback were provided by senior management and other colleagues from across IEA,including Laura Cozzi,Keisuke Sadamori,Brian Motherway,Alessandro Blasi,Toril Bosoni,Dennis Hesseling,Stphanie Bouckaert,Alexander Bressers,Federico Callioni,Shobhan Dhir,Ciaran Healy,Thomas Spencer and Jacques Warichet.Per-Anders Widell provided essential support throughout the process.Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript.Special thanks go to Prof.Andreas Ulbig and his team at RWTH Aachen University(Andreas Bong and Chris Vertgewall)for their analytical input on electric heavy-duty vehicle integration in electricity grids.Thanks go to the IEAs Communications and Digital Office,particularly to Jethro Mullen,Poeli Bojorquez,Curtis Brainard,Jon Custer,Hortense de Roffignac,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Grace Gordon,Julia Horowitz,Oliver Joy,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Clara Vallois,Lucile Wall and Wonjik Yang.The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the EVI member governments and the funds received through the Global E-Mobility Programme funded by the Global Environment Facility(GEF).Global EV Outlook 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The report benefited from the high-calibre data and support provided by the following colleagues:Nissa Alexander(Department of Economic Development,Transport and Civil Aviation,Saint Lucia);Mozah Mohamed Alnuaimi(Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,United Arab Emirates);Carlos Andrs lvarez lvarez(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Colombia);Soukaina Boudoudouh(IRESEN,Morocco);Klaas Burgdorf(Swedish Energy Agency);Bryan Cancn(MINAM,Peru);Pamela Castillo(Ministry of Energy,Chile);Adonay Urrutia Cortez(General Directorate for Energy,El Salvador);Laurent Demilie(Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport,Belgium);Albert Dessi(Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Joanna Dobek(Ministry of Climate and Environment,Poland);Alexandra Doyle-Franklin(Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority,New Zealand);Isabel Del Olmo Flrez(Institute for Diversification and Saving of Energy,Spain);Camille Gautier(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Fatima Habib(Office for Zero Emission Vehicles,United Kingdom);Jn sgeir Haukdal orvaldsson(National Energy Authority of Iceland);Tim Jonas(NREL,United States);Federico Karagulian(ENEA,Italy);Sky Liu(China Society of Automotive Engineers);Leticia Gonalves Lorentz(EPE,Brazil);Toke Rueskov Madsen(Centre for Systems Analysis,Denmark);Gereon Meyer(VDI/VDE Innovation+Technik GmbH,Germany);Elvis Octave(Seychelles Public Transport Corporation);Hiten Parmar(The Electric Mission,South Africa);Xiaorong Qiao(Transport Canada);Daniel Schaller(Swiss Federal Office of Energy);Chizu Sekiguchi(METI,Japan);Daniel Thorsell(Norwegian Public Roads Administration);Sai Santhosh Tota(VTT,Finland);Katerina Tourtora(Ministry for Environment and Energy,Greece);Alexandre Videira(Mobi.E,Portugal);Sacha Scheffer(RVO,the Netherlands);and Nahum Yehoshua(Ministry of Energy,Israel).The following peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report:Nelson Humberto Acevedo Hurtado(Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development,Colombia);Appurva Appan and Juan Camilo Ramirez Arjona(Ricardo AEA);Doris Agbevivi(Energy Commission,Ghana);Mozah Mohamed Alnuaim(Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,United Arab Emirates);Dina Bacovski(AMF TCP);Edgar Barassa(Barassa&Cruz Consulting);Daniel Barber(Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority,New Zealand);Harmeet Bawa(Hitachi Energy);Berkan Bayram(TEHAD,Trkyie);Thomas Becker(BMW);Filippo Berardi(GEF);Annika Berlin(UNEP);Ekta Bibra(Clean Energy Canada);Georg Bieker(ICCT);Tomoko Blech(CHAdeMO);Giorgios Bonias(Shell);Victor Bonilla and Tali Trigg(EBRD);Angelique Brunon(TotalEnergies);Carol Burelle,Ocktaeck Lim and Xiao Lin(HEV TCP);Klaas Burgdorf(Swedish Energy Agency);Ryan Castilloux(Adams Intelligence);Pierpaolo Cazzola(UC Davis);Jianhua Chen(Energy Foundation China);Yong Chen and Nicholas Wagner(IRENA);Tom Courtright(Africa E-Mobility Alliance);Matteo Craglia(ITF);Franois Cuenot(UNECE);Ilka von Dalwigk(Innoenergy-European Global EV Outlook 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Battery Alliance);Laurent Demilie(Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport,Belgium);Albert Dessi (Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Michael Dwyer(EIA,United States);Helosa Borges Bastos Esteves(EPE,Brazil);Hiroyuki Fukui(Toyota);Yariv Gabay(Ministry of Finance,Israel);Sebastian Galarza(Center for Sustainable Mobility);Camille Gautier(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Catherine Girard(Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance);Fatima Habib(Office for Zero Emission Vehicles,United Kingdom);Stephan Healey,Joe Homsy,Xiaorong Qiao and Paula Vieira(Transport Canada);Anders Hove(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies);Antonio Iliceto(Terna);Viktor Irle and Neil King(EV Volumes);Daisy Jennings-Gray(Benchmark Mineral Intelligence);Tim Jonas(NREL,United States);Hiroyuki Kaneko(Nissan Motor);Tarek Keskes and Yanchao Li(World Bank);Stephanie Kodish and Joseph Teja(CALSTART-Drive to Zero);Francisco Laveron(Iberdrola);Toke Rueskov Madsen(Danish Energy Agency);Maurizio Maggiore(Independent);Urs Ruth(Bosch);Hans Eric Melin(Circular Energy Storage);Gian Paolo Montoya(EPM,Colombia);Samir Mulgaonkar(Department of Transport,California);Andi Novianto(Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs,Indonesia);Marcin Nowak(Polish Chamber of E-Mobility);Elvis Octave(Government of Seychelles)Mario Duran Ortiz(Independent);Jared Ottmann(Tesla);Sarbojit Pal(CEM Secretariat);Sara Pasquier(Fastned);Davide Puglielli and Emanuela Sartori(Enel);Aleksander Rajch(Polish Association of Alternative Fuels);Taylor Reich(ITDP);Huanhuan Ren(CATARC,Automotive Data of China);Sandra Roling(The Climate Group);Sacha Scheffer(Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,the Netherlands);Wulf-Peter Schmidt(Ford);Robert Spicer(BP);Jacopo Tattini(European Commission);Danilo Teobaldi(NIO);Jacob Teter(Independent);Lyle Trytten(Independent);Bianka Uhrinova(Equinor);Andreas Ulbig(RWTH Aachen);Ulderico Ulissi and Liu Ziyu(CATL);and Adonay Urrutia(General Directorate for Energy,El Salvador).Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.11 Electric Vehicles Initiative.16 1.Trends in electric cars.17 Electric car sales.17 Electric car availability and affordability.30 2.Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles.54 Electric two-and three-wheelers.54 Electric light commercial vehicles.58 3.Trends in heavy electric vehicles.60 Electric truck and bus sales.60 Electric heavy-duty vehicle model availability.63 4.Trends in electric vehicle charging.67 Charging for electric light-duty vehicles.67 Charging for electric heavy-duty vehicles.75 5.Trends in electric vehicle batteries.78 Battery supply and demand.78 Battery prices.83 6.Trends in the electric vehicle industry.88 Electric vehicle company strategy and market competition.88 Electric vehicle and battery start-ups.95 7.Outlook for electric mobility.102 Scenario overview.102 Vehicle outlook by mode.104 Vehicle outlook by region.110 The industry outlook.117 8.Outlook for electric vehicle charging infrastructure.125 Light-duty vehicle charging.125 Heavy-duty vehicle charging.131 9.Outlook for battery and energy demand.142 Battery demand.142 Electricity demand.148 Oil displacement.150 10.Outlook for emissions reductions.154 Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions.154 Lifecycle impacts of electric cars.156 General annex.162 Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Annex A:Total cost of ownership.162 Annex B:Lifecycle analysis assessment.165 Annex C:Regional and country groupings.166 Abbreviations and acronyms.169 Units of measure.171 Currency conversions.172 List of figures Global electric car stock trends,2010-2023.17 Electric car registrations and sales share in selected countries and regions,2015-2023.20 Electric car sales in selected countries and regions,2015-2023.23 Quarterly electric car sales,2021-2024.27 Electric car sales,2010-2024.28 Car model availability by powertrain over 2010-2023 and in 2028 based on announced launches,and share of SUVs and large models among electric cars.30 Breakdown of battery electric car sales in selected countries and regions by car size,2018-2023.32 Breakdown of available car models and expected new launches by powertrain and segment in selected countries and regions,2023-2028.33 Sales-weighted average range of battery electric cars by segment,2015-2023.34 Difference in total cost of ownership for a battery electric vehicle and a conventional car purchased in 2018 and 2022,by country and segment,over time after purchase.37 Breakdown of the cost of ownership for a sales-weighted average medium-sized battery electric and conventional car purchased in 2022,5 years after purchase,by country.38 Price gap between the sales-weighted average price of conventional and electric cars in selected countries,before subsidy,by size,2018 and 2022.40 Share of battery electric car sales in China that are more or less expensive than conventional equivalents,by car size,2018-2022.41 Number of available battery electric car models in the United States,by retail price after tax credit when eligible,2023 and 2024.42 Retail price of cheapest electric and conventional cars as a share of median annual household income(left)and top 10%annual household income(right),by country and car size,2023.44 Sales-weighted average price of battery electric cars,and average battery price,by country and car size,2018-2022.46 Electric car sales in selected countries,by origin of carmaker,2021-2023.48 Second-hand market size for electric and conventional cars by region,2021-2023.49 Difference between the relative resale value of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles compared to gasoline conventional cars,2023.51 Electric two-and three-wheeler sales and sales share by region,2015-2023.56 Breakdown of total cost of ownership of two-and three-wheelers in China and India,2023.57 Electric light commercial vehicle sales and sales shares,2018-2023.59 Electric bus sales and sales share by region,2015-2023.61 Electric truck sales and sales share by region,2015-2023.63 Available battery electric heavy-duty vehicle models by original equipment manufacturer headquarters,type of vehicle and release date,2020-2023.65 Cumulative number of original equipment manufacturers that have released battery electric medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles by location of headquarters,2020-2023.66 Installed public and private light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating(public)and by type(private),2015-2023.69 Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Installed publicly accessible light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating and region,2015-2023.70 Charging capacity per electric light-duty vehicle,2015-2023.72 Number of electric light-duty vehicles per public charging point and kilowatt per electric light-duty vehicle,2023.73 Proportion of fast and slow public chargers in total public chargers,2023.74 Electric vehicle battery demand by mode and region,2017-2023.79 Supply and demand of battery metals by sector,2017-2023.80 Global trade flows for