新能源汽车行业趋势及投资洞察蓝皮书.pdf

?丨丨?去?INTRODUCTION?去?封?务?封?矿?封?去?2020?2021?2022?20%?去?封?务?务?封?愿?务?务?务?封?10?封?套?研?封?封?套?务?封?务?10808?0101?-?-CONTENTS2?去?INDUSTRY?OUTLOOK?的?务?封?3?的?去2022?务?47.2%?79.9%?研?封?51781261211373526891.8%2.7%4.5%4.7%5.4%13.4%25.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01002003004005006007008002016201720182019202020212022?41%41%41%38%36%41%47%59%59%59%62%64%59%53%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016201720182019202020212022?2016-2022?2016-2022?410821231101002003004005006002016201720182019202020212022E?0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%?2019202020212022?2023?2022?311?252.9?54.4%?务?67.9?1.2?2023?122.3%?94.3%?务?太?200?IRA?研?封?5122256778102013?2014?2015?2016?2017?2018?2019?2020?2021?2022?去?务?封?务?务?去?务?务?研?Automotive?News?封?6?15.45%9.80%4.18%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2016201720182019202020212022?1?2?1?Model?3?ID.3?15%?,?33%?,?24%?,?12%?,?9%?,?3%?,?18%?,?37%?,?29%?,?6%?,?10%?,?3%?,?15%?Model3?VS?ID.3-?1800?-?1300?-?2300?Model?3?ID.3?研?UBS?Wind?封?ODM?的?+?7?OEM?Tier-1?Tier-2?Tier-3?Tier-3Tier-1?Tier-2OEM?2?3?务?/?封?8?Robotaxi?去?封?Robotaxi?+?研?研?2.0?封?产品运营数据运营客户运营能源运营9?去?ENERGY?ECOSYSTEM?务封?10?矿?匹?匹?匹?务?11?务?务?/?/?BMS?矿?矿?矿?宇?研?/?/?/?宇?矿?矿?资料来源：专家访谈、广汽资本、广发证券产业研究院122030?回收与再利用电池组装电池制造核心材料生产上游原材料?务?模?/?/?2020?$1bn?8%319%837%1517%719%820-401%10-30%0-20%10-30%5-202%?EBITDA?3(%)xx%当年的增加值比例2022Q1?专业企业汽车OEM北新新能源九岭锂业凯金新能源1、近年的需求激增导致波动性大，因此长期利润率的估计存在不确定性；2、市场仍处于早期阶段，因此长期利润率的估计存在不确定性；3、根据价值链中部分公司2020年的EBITDA数据估算。此处利润率仅为示意性，具体指标需根据公司、市场、项目的实际情况细化估算。资料来源：麦肯锡、专家访谈、Yano 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