世界能源评论2023.pdf

WorldEnergyReview2023WorldEnergyReview2023In 2022 the energy market,which was gradually recovering from Covid pandemic,experienced a new discontinuity due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.The war had major ramifications on the global economy,the drastic change in the monetary policies of Central Banks,the need to reconsider energy flows with the exclusion of Russias oil and gas volumes.In the World Energy Review(WER),now at its 22nd edition,the evolution of the main energy variables is depicted:oil,gas,new renewables and critical minerals.Specifically,in 2022,the following highlights emerge:World Energy Mix-World primary energy consumption grows at a rate close to 1%vs.2021,confirming the almost un-broken trend of recent decades.In terms of composition,fossil fuels continue to cover about 80%of energy demand,an amount that has been essentially stable for 30 years.The share of renewables(solar and wind)in the energy mix grows,but their weight still remains limited,at just 3%.Oil-Prices up 43%y/y(Brent at 101.2$/b),amid continuing demand growth(+2.2 Mb/d)to 100 Mb/d,almost fully recovering from the pandemic-related loss(-0.7%vs 2019)with an equal contribution between OECD(+1.1 Mb/d)and non-OECD(+1.1 Mb/d).World oil production increases by 4.3 Mb/d,with growth concentrated in Gulf OPEC countries due to the unwinding of 2020 cuts.In terms of crude quality,a halt in the barrel lightening process is confirmed,with a slight decrease in the share of Light crudes in favor of Medium and Heavy crudes.Net refining capacity returns to grow in 2022 with the entry of new projects in the Middle East and China amounting to just under 2 Mb/d.Gas-Prices reach significantly high levels directly affecting downstream commodities,foremost among them electricity,with major impacts on consumers,governments,production systems,and the entire global economy.Thermal year 2021/22 begins with significantly reduced inventories and gas prices 7 times higher than on October 1,2020.Europe compensates the shortfall in pipeline imports from Russia mainly by attracting additional LNG volumes,pays higher prices,and loses its traditional role as a global balancer by becoming the premium market capable of generating pressure on all major gas price indices.Global gas demand overall in 2022 falls by more than 1%,after a post-pandemic rebound in 2021(+5%),with divergent dynamics on a global scale:sharp braking in Europe,Russia,and Asia,only partially offset by growth in the US and Middle East.Renewables-Although installations have been growing exponentially in recent years,the share of solar and wind in the electricity generation mix has risen to just above 10%,compared with more than 60%generated by fossil fuels(including 36%of the total generated by coal).Critical minerals(cobalt,copper,lithium,nickel,rare earths and silicon)-They play a key role in some key transi-tion-related technologies:batteries(cobalt,lithium and nickel),wind(rare earths)and solar(silicon).Most of them show significant growth in terms of production,also reflecting increased demand.Nickel and lithium mark the largest increase(over 20%).Finally,it is worth mentioning how the new energy setup has also affected CO2 emissions from fuel combustion,which spiked again(+1%,after the post covid recovery recorded in 2021),resulting from the increase in coal consumption.Claudio DescalziChief Executive Officer and General ManagerOil-Supply and Demand16RESERVES 16Areas and Aggregates 18The World Top 10 Reserves Holders 19Countries 23PRODUCTION23Areas and Aggregates25The World Top 10 Producers26Countries 29The World Top 10 Natural Gas Liquids Producers30RESERVES/PRODUCTION RATIO30Areas and Aggregates 31The World Top 10 Producers Ranked by Reserves/Production Ratio32Countries 35CONSUMPTION35Areas and Aggregates 37The World Top 10 Consumers38Countries 43PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION43Areas and Aggregates 44The World Top 10 Consumers Ranked by Per Capita Consumption Ratio45Countries 50PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION RATIO50Areas and Aggregates 51The World Top 10 Producers Ranked by Production/Consumption Ratio52Countries Oil-Trade and Prices58REGIONAL CRUDE BALANCES58Crude Surplus Deficit by Area59EXPORTS59The World Top 10 Exporters60Countries64IMPORTS64The World Top 10 Importers65Countries70CRUDE FUTURE PRICES AND OPEN INTERESTS Introduction8LIST OF COUNTRIES 912121213NOTES AND METHODS WORLD ENERGY MIXWorld Energy Mix 2022World Power Capacity Mix 2022World Power Generation Mix 2022Oil-Production Quality74WORLD74Crude Production by Quality74Crude Production by Gravity74Crude Production by Sulphur Content75Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes76Crude Production by Quality-Chart77EUROPE77Crude Production by Quality77Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes78Crude Production by Quality-Chart79Countries80RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIA80Crude Production by Quality81Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes82Crude Production by Quality-Chart83Countries84MIDDLE EAST 84Crude Production by Quality85Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes86Crude Production by Quality-Chart87Countries89AFRICA89Crude Production by Quality90Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes91Crude Production by Quality-Chart92Countries95ASIA-PACIFIC95Crude Production by Quality96Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes97Crude Production by Quality-Chart98Countries100AMERICAS100Crude Production by Quality101Quality and Production Volume of Main Crudes102Crude Production by Quality-Chart103CountriesOil-Refining Industry108REFINING CAPACITY108Areas and Aggregates 4Eni World Energy Review 2023 Natural Gas-Supply and Demand114RESERVES 114Areas and Aggregates 116The World Top 10 Reserves Holders 117Countries 121PRODUCTION121Areas and Aggregates123The World Top 10 Producers124Countries 128RESERVES/PRODUCTION RATIO128Areas and Aggregates 129The World Top 10 Producers Ranked by Reserves/Production Ratio130Countries 134CONSUMPTION134Areas and Aggregates 136The World Top 10 Consumers137Countries 142PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION142Areas and Aggregates 143The World Top 10 Consumers Ranked by Per Capita Consumption Ratio144Countries 149PRODUCTION/CONSUMPTION RATIO149Areas and Aggregates 150The World Top 10 Producers Ranked by Production/Consumption Ratio151Countries Natural Gas-Trade and Prices158EXPORTS158The World Top 10 Exporters159Countries162IMPORTS162The World Top 10 Importers163Countries166Imports by Country of Origin-Pipeline and LNG 2022168Imports by Country of Origin-Pipeline 2022170Imports by Country of Origin-LNG 2022172TRADED GAS 173LNG-LIQUEFACTION AND REGASIFICATION CAPACITY173Liquefaction Capacity-Countries174Regasification Capacity-Countries175NATURAL GAS BALANCE-ITALY176NATURAL GAS PRICESRenewables180SOLAR RESOURCES Map(Global Horizontal Irradiance)181SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER CAPACITY181Areas and Aggregates 183The World Top 10 184Countries 189SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION189Areas and Aggregates 191The World Top 10192Countries 197WIND RESOURCES MAP(Average Wind Speed at 80 m height)198WIND POWER CAPACITY198Areas and Aggregates 200The World Top 10201Countries 205WIND POWER GENERATION205Areas and Aggregates 207The World Top 10208Countries 212BIOFUELS PRODUCTIONCritical Minerals216COBALT216RESERVES216Countries 216The World Top 10 217World Cobalt Reserves218PRODUCTION218Countries 218The World Top 10 219World Cobalt Production220COPPER220RESERVES220Countries 220The World Top 10 221World Copper Reserves222PRODUCTION222Countries 222The World Top 10 223World Copper Production224LITHIUM224RESERVES224Countries 224The World Top 9 225World Lithium Reserves226PRODUCTION226Countries 226The World Top 8227World Lithium Production228NICKEL228RESERVES228Countries 228The World Top 9 229World Nickel Reserves230PRODUCTION230Countries 230The World Top 9 231World Nickel Production232RARE EARTHS232RESERVES232Countries 232The World Top 10 233World Rare Earths Reserves234PRODUCTION234Countries 234The World Top 9 235World Rare Earths Production236SILICON236PRODUCTION236Countries236The World Top 10 237World Silicon Production5CONTENTSIntroductionLIST OF COUNTRIESNOTES AND METHODSPRICESCrude Future Price and Open InterestsNatural Gas Prices Power PricesIntroductionLIST OF COUNTRIESNOTES AND METHODSWORLD ENERGY MIXIntroductionLIST OF COUNTRIESNOTES AND METHODSWORLD ENERGY MIXList of CountriesEuropeRussia and Central AsiaMiddle East AfricaAsia-PacificNorth AmericaCentral South AmericaList of CountriesThis Review adopts the most commonly used names for countries and not necessarily the official name.The names used do not in any way indicate the opinion of Eni on the legal status of countries,territories,cities or areas mentioned.The term“country”is used to indicate,when necessary,also a territory or area.Borders between countries are indicated on the maps and do not imply judgement of any kind or the position of Eni with regard to current international disputes.This Review has been prepared by the Market Scenarios and Strategic Options Unit.List of Countries:Europe:Albania,Austria,Belarus,Belgium,Bosnia Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Gibraltar,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Kosovo,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Moldova,Montenegro,Netherlands,North Macedonia,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Serbia,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Trkiye,Ukraine and United Kingdom.Russia and Central Asia:Russia,Armenia,Azerbaijan,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.Middle East:Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,Syria,United Arab Emirates and Yemen.Africa:Algeria,Angola,Benin,Cameroon,Chad,Congo,Cte dIvoire,Dem.Rep.Congo,Egypt,Equatorial Guinea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Libya,Madagascar,Mauritania,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Rwanda,Senegal,Sierra Leone,Somalia,South Africa,South Sudan,Sudan,Tanzania,Tunisia,Uganda,Zambia and Zimbabwe.Asia-Pacific:Afghanistan,Australia,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Brunei,China,East Timor,Hong Kong,India,Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,New Zealand,North Korea,Pakistan,Papua New Guinea,Philippines,Singapore,South Korea,Sri Lanka,Taiwan,Thailand and Vietnam.Americas:North America and Central South America.North America:Canada and the United States.Central South America:Argentina,Barbados,Belize,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,Cuba,Curacao,Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guatemala,Guyana,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Mexico,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Suriname,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay and Venezuela.European Union 27:Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain and Sweden.OECD:Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Mexico,Netherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Slovakia,Slovenia,South Korea,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Trkiye United Kingdom and United States.OPEC:Algeria,Angola,Congo,Equatorial Guinea,Gabon,Iran,Iraq,Kuwait,Libya,Nigeria,Saudi Arabia,United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.MENA(Middle East and North Africa):Bahrain,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,Syria,United Arab Emirates,Yemen and Algeria,Egypt,Libya,Morocco and Tunisia.8Eni World Energy Review 2023Notes and MethodsOilThe sources of the data are:CME,DECC,EIA DOE,Enerdata,Energy Intelligence,ICE,ICIS Consulting,International Energy Agency,IHS Global Insight,Italian Ministry for Ecological Transition,JODI,Norwegian Petroleum Directorate,Oil&Gas Journal,OPEC,S&P Global Platts,Wood MacKenzie and other official sources.In all the chapters of oil,in some countries figures may include oil from non conventional sources and others sources of supply.The figures for“Reserves”refer to proven reserves as at 31st December.The figures for other chapters indicate annual averages.Blank spaces in the tables indicate that the figure was not available,zero indicates a figure that is not significant(except for the chapters“Production Quality”where“zero”is used for both not available and not significant figures).Total may differ from the sum of the individual figures as a result of rounding up/down.Percentages have been calculated before rounding.Supply and Demand-Trade and PricesThe difference between the Consumption and the Production of oil is given by the change in stocks,the processing gains obtained in refining and the amount of biofuels which is not included in Production.In all the chapters,the list of the“The world top 10”is drawn up by ordering the countries on the basis of the last available year.In the chap-ters“Reserves/Production Ratio”and“Production/Consumption Ratio”,the list of the“The world top 10”is drawn up by selecting the larg-est producers in the last available year and ordering them on the basis of the value of the reserves/production and production/consumption ratio.In the chapter“Per Capita Consumption”,the list of the world top is drawn up by selecting the largest consumers in the last available year and ordering them by the value of per capita consumption.Production Quality In the chapter“Production Quality”figures for total oil production in each area or country do not coincide with the figures in the“Production”chapter of the Review.This is due to the exclusion of natural gas liquids and extra heavy crude from the figures for the first(except for Vene-zuela).Moreover,it has not been possible to allocate or define total production.In some countries the Ultra Light category also includes,in total or in part,the production of condensates.For Canada the production includes syncrude.API degree is used universally to express a crudes relative density.The arbitrary formula used to obtain it is:API gravity=(141.5/SG at 60F)-131.5,where SG is the specific gravity of the fluid.Lighter the crude,higher the API gravity.The API scale was designed so that most values would fall between 10 and 70 API gravity degrees.Fresh water has an API density of 10.Atmospheric distillates yields are obtained according to TBP(True Boiling Point)technique,ASTM D2892 procedure.Figures are expressed in mass percentage.For the definition of the qualitative parameters for single crudes,the data of“EniR&M downstream laboratories”have been used,wherever possible.Quality levels,indicating API gravity and sulphur content,are defined as follows.Quality levels-API gravity and sulphur content Ultra Light API level equal to or greater than 50 and a low sulphur content Light&Sweet API level equal to or greater than 35 and less than 50,sulphur content less 0.5%Light&Medium Sour API level equal to or greater than 35 and less than 50,sulphur content equal to or greater than 0.5%and less than 1%Light&Sour API level equal to or greater than 35 and less than 50,sulphur content equal to or greater than