脱钩:全球化何去何从.pdf
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1、2021 by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China,all rights reserved.This report may not be reproduced either in part or in full without prior written consent of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.The information contained herein is based on input and analysis from September 2020
2、 to December 2020.The information is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as business or legal advice on any specific facts or circumstances.No users of this report should act or refrain from acting on the basis of any content included without seeking appropriate prof
3、essional advice.The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China does not assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of the information provided in the report.Table of Contents About the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.1About MERICS.2Executive Summary.3
4、Key Takeaways.7Chapter 1:The Drivers of Decoupling.9Chapter 2:The Layers of Decoupling.17-Macro Decoupling:Political and financial.20-Trade Decoupling:Supply chains and critical inputs.32-Innovation Decoupling:Standards and R&D.46-Digital Decoupling:Data governance,network equipment and telecommunic
5、ations services.57Chapter 3:The Big Picture.73Chapter 4:Implications and Recommendations.85Abbreviations.90Contributors.93About the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China1DecouplingSevered Ties and Patchwork GlobalisationAbout the European Union Chamber of Commerce in ChinaThe European Union Ch
6、amber of Commerce in China(European Chamber)was founded in 2000 by 51 member companies that shared a goal of establishing a common voice for the various business sectors of the EU and European businesses operating in China.It is a member-driven,non-profit,fee-based organisation with a core structure
7、 of 34 working groups and fora representing European business in China.The European Chamber has more than 1,700 member companies in seven chapters operating in nine cities:Beijing,Nanjing,Shanghai,Shenyang,South China(Guangzhou and Shenzhen),Southwest China(Chengdu and Chongqing)and Tianjin.Each cha
8、pter is managed at the local level by local boards reporting directly to the Executive Committee.The European Chamber is recognised by the European Commission and the Chinese authorities as the official voice of European business in China.It is also recognised as a foreign chamber of commerce by the
9、 Ministry of Civil Affairs.The European Chamber is part of the growing network of European Business Organisations(EBOs),which connects European business associations and chambers of commerce from more than 40 non-EU countries around the world.As a member-based organisation,the European Chamber seeks
10、 several things:To Ensure greater market access and a level playing field for European companies operating in China.To Improve market conditions for all businesses in China.To Facilitate networking among members and stakeholders.To Provide specific,relevant information to its members on how to do bu
11、siness in China.To Update its members on economic trends and legislation in China.We are an independent,non-profit organisation governed by our members.We work for the benefit of European business as a whole.We operate as a single,networked organisation across Mainland China.We maintain close,constr
12、uctive relations with the Chinese and European authorities,while retaining our independence.We seek the broadest possible representation of European business in China within our membership:small,medium and large enterprises from all business sectors and European Member States,which operate throughou
13、t China.We operate in accordance with Chinese laws and regulations.We treat all of our members,business partners and employees with fairness and integrity.ABOUT THE EUROPEAN UNION CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN CHINA2000FO U N d E d I NBy 51 M E M B E R C O M PA N I E S34w O R K I N g g R O U P S A N d F O
14、R A1,700M O R E T H A NM E M B E R C O M PA N I E S9O P E R AT I N g I NC I T I E S123457612345Mission statementPrinciples 2In partnership withAbout MERICSAbout MERICSSince its creation in 2013,MERICS has established itself as the go-to European think tank on China.With about 20 full-time research s
15、taff from different disciplines,MERICS is currently the largest European research institute focussing solely on contemporary China studies.Based in Berlin,MERICS plays an active role in informing European public debates on China and in providing senior decision-makers across Europe with in-depth Chi
16、na-related insights critical to their portfolios.MERICS was founded by the Stiftung Mercator to strengthen knowledge and debate about China in Germany and Europe.Independent research means MERICS experts will take a stand one firmly grounded in liberal-minded and democratic values.In doing so,MERICS
17、 experts provide new perspectives on China and advice for shaping relations with it.3DecouplingSevered Ties and Patchwork GlobalisationExecutive SummaryExecutive SummaryExecutive SummaryThe global COVID-19 pandemic turned 2020 into a year of uncertainty,individual suffering,economic disruption and h
18、eightened geopolitical tensions.While the roll-out of vaccinations has created something of a silver lining,the closing weeks of 2020 saw an acceleration of decoupling trends,pulling major economies further apart and disrupting commercial flows and other exchanges:The outgoing Trump Administration t
19、ook another,maybe final,swipe at a major Chinese technology company:Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(SMIC),Chinas most advanced semiconductor firm,was blacklisted by the United States(US),effectively making them a company non grata for global investors.Disputes between China and
20、 Australia led to a ban on Australian coal imports that has resulted in rolling power outages across various parts of China.China released measures to expand its national security review process for foreign investment.Even the news that the European Union(EU)-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investm
21、ent(CAI)had been concluded at the political level was met with significant scepticism across Europe,with many expressing doubts over the possibility of arriving at a fairer,more reciprocal EU-China economic relationship.Meanwhile,China-based automotive manufacturers have been getting a taste of what
22、 disruptions to critical inputs like semiconductors can result in.Pandemic-related fluctuations in supply and demand have led to a shortage of certain semiconductors required for electronic control units(ECUs),which collectively form the computer of a vehicle.1 As a result,manufacturers are shutteri
23、ng much of their production until the shortage is corrected,which is expected to take up to nine months.2 To casual observers,such examples are part of a recent story that began in 2018,when the Trump Administration imposed the first round of tariffs on Chinese imports to the US.In reality,however,d
24、ecoupling is a much longer-term trend that stretches back to the earliest days of Chinas opening up and reform.Through market access and other barriers,China has long managed its interdependence with the world economy in a highly strategic and limited manner:selective coupling where it needed foreig
25、n technology or competitionsuch as in high-speed rail and the financial sector respectivelyand remaining uncoupled in sectors reserved for Chinas,often state-owned,national champions.For more than 15 years,Chinas leaders have also advanced extensive industrial policies in an attempt to develop self-
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